Setting aside the superficial restlessness, we need to see more changes in the industry or things that have yet to be changed.

Written by: Blockchain Knight

"When the tide goes out, you find out who’s been swimming naked." Using Buffett's words to describe the current Crypto market is probably the best description. Over the past period, we have often heard or seen scattered news about XXX "withdrawing from the circle." These messages are more about expressing the current state of the industry rather than complaints or grievances.

As for why these people choose to leave the industry, I have roughly tracked a few main reasons.

First and foremost, many have left due to the dismal market conditions or the changes brought about by the market, forcing some to temporarily exit the industry in search of "rebirth." Secondly, Web3 has been in a somewhat unappreciated "pathological" growth phase over the past year or two, leading some value creators to leave the field because they do not see real value growth. Additionally, some have noticed the rise of AI and believe that Web3 has become a thing of the past, prompting them to pursue new blue ocean markets.

Of course, the reasons vary significantly at the individual level, but none of these reasons can transform from a part to the whole. After all, most people in the market still choose to remain observant or continue building, as this industry, which has developed for over a decade, is not facing such a dilemma for the first time.

It’s just that some of those leaving the industry may be influential KOLs, which can affect many people's mindsets. However, I believe that this stage is the true test for Builders. Setting aside the superficial restlessness, we need to see more changes in the industry or things that have yet to be changed. I will briefly discuss the following three aspects.

Has the Web3 industry moved from blue ocean to red ocean?

According to a research report released by BTC financial services company River in March, only 4% of the global population currently holds BTC, with the highest proportion of BTC holders in the United States, where about 14% of people hold BTC. From a developmental stage perspective, the current BTC adoption rate is comparable to the internet in 1990 or mobile social in 2005.

From this simple data analysis, we can see that the adoption rate of digital assets led by BTC is still in its early stages, far from what is considered a red ocean market. Even from an industry influence perspective, traditional financial giants like BlackRock and Fidelity have only just entered the market. One can only imagine, would they foolishly come in as the ones taking over?

From a logical and data analysis standpoint, we must admit that if digital assets are the future direction of development or if Web3 is the intersection of the internet and AI, then the likelihood is that this race has just moved from the starting point to the midpoint, with a long way to go.

Is the Web3 market left with only exaggerated MEME narratives?

Of course, for many value creators in this industry, the most criticized aspect over the past year has been the explosive popularity of MEMEs. MEMEs have attracted too much attention, and as a result, many who entered the industry faced a cleansing, even losing confidence in the industry. However, as I mentioned in a previous Weekly, MEMEs are in the process of evolution, needing new recovery growth after the bubble, and this growth may bring value to the industry.

Secondly, we should not only focus on some superficial hot changes; builders are still building, and valuable projects are still seeking breakthroughs. By looking at the changes in the number of active developers over the past year, we can see that despite experiencing a decline, the number remains relatively high.

Although the market currently appears quiet and lacks a groundbreaking narrative like DeFi from the previous cycle, looking back at the past from the present is always calm and full of opportunities, while looking at the future from the present feels less certain. But isn’t this the law of development and change for any phenomenon?

Even looking back at the Web3 industry in 2018, it was still extremely poor, even worse than now by several times, but this did not hinder the subsequent explosive growth. We need time and patience to wait for the process from quantitative change to qualitative change.

Will the Web3 market continue to "fall endlessly"?

Finally, we come to the question of price. Over 90% of people feel that this cycle is very different from previous ones and lacks much similarity, so many "carving the boat to seek the sword" predictions have become cannon fodder. However, if the concept of cycles is still valid, then we are likely still within this cycle, just without the previous madness of widespread increases.

Recently, due to issues with GS, the U.S. stock market plummeted, evaporating nearly $6.5 trillion in market value in two days. The three major U.S. stock indices recorded their largest two-day drop and largest weekly drop since March 2020, which also led to extreme market conditions in the global financial market. Whether this volatility can improve in the short term remains to be seen cautiously.

So, when BTC has already retraced nearly 30%, and the financial market is facing a once-in-several-years upheaval, can the entire Crypto market remain unscathed? Perhaps this is a difficult question to answer.

But the earliest economists, also known as the "God of Wealth," Fan Li, had a classic saying worth pondering: "When prices are extremely high, they will fall; when prices are extremely low, they will rise; when prices are seen as worthless, they will be valued like jewels." Perhaps we are currently in a subtle moment of "seeing everything as worthless."

Will BTC eventually reach $500,000 each? Seven years ago, saying BTC would reach 1 million yuan each sounded like a joke, but now it seems not far off. Living in the present requires facing reality, but when facing the future, we must remain cautiously optimistic, always on the road, always building.

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