Macroeconomic Background: Policy Shock Lingers, Market Sentiment Continues to Dwindle

Following the global stock market crash on "Black Monday," financial markets have remained volatile. Trump's new round of tariff policies has triggered a surge in global risk aversion, with gold experiencing a brief rebound before quickly plummeting, leaving the global capital markets in despair. Bitcoin has also struggled to remain unaffected by this macro shock—although there was a brief rebound on April 8, by 9 AM on April 9 (UTC+8), BTC had fallen back below the $75,000 mark, just shy of this week's low of $74,508.

K-Line Structure: Rebound Fails, Downward Trend Dominates

From the K-line structure perspective:

The rebound K-line on April 8 is a typical "bullish engulfing" failure pattern, as it failed to recover the key MA5 and MA10 resistance by the end of the trading session, indicating insufficient upward momentum;

After today's opening, the price gapped down again, with an intraday low touching the $75,000 support level, testing Monday's low;

Currently, a "low-level pullback within a descending channel" structure is forming, with prices consistently running below the MA5/10/20 moving averages, maintaining a complete bearish structure;

If the price cannot return above $76,500 tonight, there is a risk of testing the support in the $74,000 range again in the short term.

Capital Movements: OBV Downtrend Unabated, Volume-Price Divergence Warning Remains

From the capital indicators perspective:

The OBV has released negative values for three consecutive days and has accelerated downward in today's morning session, indicating continued outflow of main funds;

The trading volume has significantly shrunk during the K-line rebound, with the rebound characterized as "low-volume increase," contrasting sharply with the "high-volume sell-off" during declines;

The latest AiCoin deep data shows that the order wall is mainly concentrated in the $73,000-$74,000 range, with funds remaining cautiously on the sidelines.

Technical Indicators: Multiple Signals Unresolved, Rebound in Doubt

• MACD: Still in a bearish dominance, with green bars continuously expanding, and both DIF and DEA running below the 0 axis, showing no obvious turning point in the short term.
• RSI: The daily RSI has dropped below 25 again, exhibiting "weak oscillation" characteristics, but has not formed a clear bottom divergence, with no strong signals of oversold recovery in the market.
• KDJ: A death cross has formed, with the K value falling to 11, and the trend remains biased downward, with short-term overselling but not constituting a reversal momentum.
• Volume Profile (VPVR): Observing the dense trading area on the right side of the chart, the current price has fallen out of the main accumulation zone (78,000-83,000), entering a "trading vacuum zone," with extremely weak support.

Comprehensive Judgment and Forecast: Weak Consolidation Continues, Focus on 74,500 Defense Line

Short-term trend: Still in a typical bearish trend channel, the rebound has been falsified, and strong support confirmation has not yet appeared.

Important support level: $74,500 is the lowest point of the first downward wave this week; if breached, a new round of rapid liquidation may occur, targeting the $72,000-$72,500 range.

Resistance level reference: If there is a technical recovery in the short term, attention should be paid to the $76,500-$77,000 range, where the MA5 and MA10 resonance resistance area lies.

Market style judgment: Bulls are attempting to build a bottom, but the bearish dominance has not shifted, with the rebound being a weak repair, not a trend reversal.

Strategy Suggestions

• Short-term trading: Aggressive bears may consider shorting near $76,500, with a stop-loss set above $78,000, targeting below $74,000;
• Mid-term layout: If $74,500 confirms effective support again, combined with capital inflow and increased volume, gradual position building may be considered;
• Conservative strategy: Patiently wait for the bottom structure to form, such as the appearance of MACD golden cross, OBV stopping decline and rebounding, and other multi-signal resonance.

"When the macro environment is fraught with anxiety, investors must remain calmer than the market." — Although Bitcoin was once considered "digital gold," its safe-haven attributes are gradually diminishing in the face of macro shocks. $75,000 is not the end, but it is becoming a watershed that will determine the next phase of the trend.

This article represents the author's personal views and does not reflect the stance or views of this platform. This article is for information sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice to anyone.

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