Source: Cointelegraph Original: "{title}"
The Bitcoin futures market reflects signs of potential price cooling after several weeks of adjustment. According to CryptoQuant data, the BTC-USDT futures leverage ratio relative to open interest (OI) has halved since peaking in early 2025.
Bitcoin futures leverage estimate. Source: CryptoQuant
This significant deleveraging has occurred due to forced liquidations over the past few weeks, leading to a large number of traders exiting the market. Therefore, the current market conditions indicate a healthy reset, with the market not overheating, which may pave the way for price stability.
The open interest for Bitcoin has decreased from $71.8 billion on December 18, 2024, to $51.8 billion on April 8, 2025, a decline of 28%. This highlights the scale of the current deleveraging event. Although this may trigger short-term volatility, as only a few market participants may control the price, it also lays the foundation for Bitcoin's stability in the long term and provides an advantage amid the current uncertain trends.
Analysts say that $70,000 for Bitcoin is the worst-case scenario.
In a post on X, Sina, co-founder of 21st Century Capital, updated his Bitcoin quantile model and stated, "Bitcoin is significantly de-risking here."
Bitcoin quantile model. Source: X.com
Analysts explained that Bitcoin may have completed 75%-80% of its correction, dropping from $109,000 to $74,500. Historically, during a six to eight-week period of this trend, prices have dropped by as much as 34%. Currently, Bitcoin has fallen 31% from its all-time high, and if it further declines to $72,000 to $70,000, the drop would be about 34%. Sina added, "Without an economic recession, $70,000 is my worst-case scenario. Although the macro backdrop remains severe and further sell-offs may occur, we believe Bitcoin is deeply undervalued for long-term investors."
However, Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. believes that the likelihood of Bitcoin recovering in the short term is low, expecting Bitcoin to consolidate within a "volatility corridor."
Bitcoin support and resistance levels. Source: X.com
The volatility corridor identifies a price range between $75,000 and $96,000 based on the realized prices of short-term holders over different time periods.
Adler Jr. stated that Bitcoin may consolidate between these levels in the coming weeks, but he warned that the price must remain above the 365-day simple moving average. If it falls below this key indicator, it could lead to Bitcoin setting a new year-to-date low, dropping below the $74,500 level, with the ideal price being $70,000, as previously mentioned.
Related: Bridgewater founder issues warning: "Once in a lifetime" global collapse is unfolding?
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading decision involves risks, and readers should conduct thorough research before making decisions.
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