This market is in wealth preservation mode

CN
2 days ago

This market is in wealth preservation mode, not wealth creation mode.

The beauty of this is the following:

If you're focused on preserving wealth & protecting scarce capital, you're only going to be invested in the best assets & patiently increase your allocation to them.

So if we switch back into a wealth creation environment, those assets will appreciate in value.

It's why I've never said that I'm selling my entire portfolio or actively shorting the market.

Am I selling? Yes, but marginally & incrementally.

I sold some exposure in February, early March, and yesterday.

I'm about to turn 30 in a week... I have all the time in the world for my assets to recover and benefit from compounding.

I can survive and withstand a 50% drawdown and/or an extended bear market.

Will I be happy about it? No, of course not.

But it's a risk that we must all accept as long-term investors.

There's also the "risk" that we don't enter an extended bear market, and that those who are shorting this market will get absolutely punished.

Remember, "risk" is a two-sided coin defined as the probability of something happening other than what you expect.

If you're bullish, there's a risk that:

• You're too bullish

• You're not bullish enough

If you're bearish, there's a risk that:

• You're too bearish

• You're not bearish enough

From my 11 years in the market, I've learned that bears are often wrong. When they're right, it's fleeting. Ironically, the bears who predicted the crash never flip back to bullish.

So if you're going to be bearish, as I am on equities, then you must recognize that this is a short-term perspective and you must be willing to flip back into a "wealth creation" mindset rather quickly, when the time is right.

I don't know when that time will be.

But I know what to look for and how to quantify it.

The last thing that I want to say is this: know your timeframe and know what you own.

Cheers fam.


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