Is there still hidden risk behind the rebound of Bitcoin?
HTX DeepThink is a crypto market insight column created by Huobi HTX, focusing on global macro trends, core economic data, and hot topics in the crypto industry, injecting new thinking power into the market, and helping readers "find order in chaos" in the unpredictable crypto world.
What does the token plan of Trump's social platform Truth Social mean for the crypto market? What is the key to breaking the deadlock after the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates? Is there still hidden risk behind the rebound of Bitcoin? This issue's guest HTX Research Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) will interpret these for you.
Trump Group to Launch a New "Utility Token," Potentially Opening a New Era of Tokenization in U.S. Stocks
On April 30, 2025, Trump Media & Technology Group officially announced in a letter to shareholders that it will collaborate with Truth Digital Wallet to launch a utility token named "DJT," initially for paying Truth+ subscription fees, with plans to gradually expand to payment, tipping, and trading services within the Truth ecosystem. Meanwhile, the DJT trademark has covered three major areas: digital wallets, crypto payments, and digital asset platforms, and the official account of Truth Social has also been renamed to "DJT," indicating a deep integration with the social platform.
This is the first utility token led by a U.S. publicly listed media group, landing in a real social product scenario, marking a historical intersection between U.S. stocks and on-chain asset forms. Although the official release time, the public chain used, or specific mechanisms have not yet been announced, referencing Trump's usual strategy of "creating momentum first, details later," the market generally expects a multi-phase distributed release approach, leveraging media hype to attract traffic and attention.
As the Memecoin market gradually cools down and the narrative shifts towards practicality and payment scenarios, DJT undoubtedly hits the right market rhythm. Similar to the USD1 stablecoin of the WLFI project recently launched by Huobi HTX, the market is showing a high preference for "utility crypto assets." DJT not only possesses strong political IP and social heat but also has real ecological closed-loop support, and its medium to long-term value growth potential may far exceed that of short-term Meme-type speculative targets.
Geneva Negotiations Restart: U.S.-China Easing Boosts Risk Appetite, but Deadlock Remains
This weekend, the U.S. and China will restart their first high-level meeting in Geneva since the escalation of trade conflicts in spring 2025. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen and Trade Representative Tai will meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, focusing on topics including pathways to alleviate the 145% high tariffs, adjustments to export control policies, and the restoration of the tax exemption mechanism for small e-commerce packages.
Although there are still differences in assigning responsibility, this meeting, which is "more symbolic than substantive," has already sent a signal of "restarting communication" to the world. Given that the current total level of U.S.-China bilateral tariffs is at a historical high, the market interprets this as a harbinger of short-term easing of geopolitical friction, driving a collective rebound in risk assets.
After the news was announced, Bitcoin's price rose by about 3.6%, reaching $97,000, indicating a high sensitivity of funds to macro easing. Although long-term structural differences remain unresolved, the short-term policy buffer window may provide liquidity repair space for high Beta assets such as digital assets, gold, and tech stocks.
Powell Throws Cold Water: Now is Not the Time to Cut Rates, Market May Be Overly Optimistic About Liquidity
On May 8, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50% and also kept the March balance sheet reduction pace, maintaining the U.S. Treasury reduction cap at $5 billion/month and the MBS reduction cap at $35 billion/month. Although the market had already digested this decision, CME FedWatch shows that the probability of a rate cut in July has risen to 75%, but Powell clearly expressed a more cautious stance at the press conference:
● "Now is not the time for us to take the lead in cutting rates."
● "The cost of waiting is quite low."
● "Whether to cut rates this year will depend on how things develop. The U.S. is currently facing unresolved inflation pressures, and trade policies (such as tariffs) may cause inflation to rise again."
The Federal Reserve is currently facing a "dual dilemma": on one hand, inflation has clearly slowed down, with PCE and CPI still above the 2% policy target. In response, Powell stated that the Fed cannot preemptively cut rates as it did in 2019—when inflation was below target, while current inflation remains high, and trade policies such as tariffs may bring new upward pressure. He admitted that the Fed has not faced a "dual contradiction of unstable inflation and unbroken employment" for many years, making the policy path more complex and risky.
On the other hand, the Fed's financial situation also poses substantial constraints on policy operations. In the fiscal year 2024, it paid $226.8 billion in interest on reserves and RRP tools but only earned $158.8 billion from its holdings of Treasury and MBS, resulting in a loss of $77.5 billion for the year. If it rashly cuts rates by 0.25–0.3 percentage points, it would lead to an annualized interest loss of about $20 billion, further weakening the profits remitted to the Treasury, and even raising doubts about the independence of the Fed's monetary policy.
Therefore, although the market has currently priced in three rate cuts, the Fed is more likely to adopt a gradual rhythm of "data verification and delayed transition." Investors need to be highly vigilant about the current risk reversal of "sentiment trading running ahead of fundamentals," especially in the context where key data has not significantly deteriorated.
Non-Farm Payrolls Resilient, Powell Names "Unemployment Rate" as Important Signal for Policy Shift, Liquidity Window May Be Delayed
In April, non-farm employment increased by 177,000, far exceeding market expectations; the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, with new jobs mainly concentrated in the healthcare, finance, and transportation sectors. Although federal government jobs decreased by 9,000 due to budget cuts, the overall labor market performance remains robust, showing no systemic signs of weakness.
In the current context of inflation not effectively retreating and strong employment, Powell repeatedly emphasized at the press conference that the "unemployment rate" is the "safe signal" for a policy shift:
● "I cannot say how much of an increase in the unemployment rate is tolerable."
● "We will look at overall employment data to assess the weakness."
This statement clearly delineates the policy bottom line: only when non-farm employment shows a substantial decline, or the unemployment rate quickly rises above 4.5%, will the Fed consider cutting rates in advance in the context of inflation not meeting the target.
Bitcoin Rebounds but Options Market Shows No Trend, Macro Data Will Determine Future Direction
Overall, although Bitcoin has rebounded to around $99,000 due to U.S.-China easing and rate cut expectations, the options market has not shown clear signals of unilateral trend betting. Currently, the implied volatility of call options expiring in June and July on Deribit has risen moderately, risk reversal (25d RR) remains neutral to weak, and the Skew structure is flat, indicating that the market's confidence in sustained upward movement is still limited. A large amount of Gamma positions is concentrated in the $95,000–$100,000 range, suggesting that the market may be trapped in a state of "high volatility suppression + directional waiting for data-driven" in the short term.
If CPI and non-farm data continue to be strong in May and June, the expectation of a "July rate cut" will be revised, and the market may face a BTC expected correction; however, if the unemployment rate rises alongside slowing inflation, and the Fed's stance turns dovish, it may drive BTC to break through the current volatility range, initiating a new trend.
“HTX DeepThink: Finding Order in Chaos”
Note: The content of this article is not investment advice and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, or recommendation for investment products.
About HTX Research
HTX Research is the exclusive research department under HTX Group, responsible for in-depth analysis across a wide range of fields including cryptocurrencies, blockchain technology, and emerging market trends, writing comprehensive reports, and providing professional assessments. HTX Research is committed to providing data-driven insights and strategic foresight, playing a key role in shaping industry perspectives and supporting informed decision-making in the digital asset space. With rigorous research methods and cutting-edge data analysis, HTX Research consistently stands at the forefront of innovation, leading the development of industry thought and promoting a deeper understanding of the ever-changing market dynamics.
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