Author: Marcel Pechman, Cointelegraph

Translated by: Felix, PANews

Ethereum successfully implemented a key network upgrade on May 7, but the price of ETH and its derivative indicators reacted lukewarmly to the upgrade. This tepid response surprised traders and led analysts to question whether ETH has a chance to rise 22% to reclaim the $2200 level.

ETH 30 _day futures annualized premium. Source: _Laevitas.ch

The ETH futures premium has remained below the 5% neutral threshold, indicating a lack of interest from leveraged bulls. More importantly, after the Pectra upgrade, this indicator remained unchanged at 3%, suggesting that traders did not adjust their positions despite the successful deployment of the upgrade.

The market's lukewarm response is partly due to investors focusing on macroeconomic issues, as the uncertainty surrounding global trade disputes has heightened the risk of economic recession. However, the lack of interest from traders in Ether predates the recent deterioration in risk aversion sentiment. In fact, in the first three months of 2025, ETH's performance lagged behind the overall cryptocurrency market cap by 28%.

This tepid response can be attributed in part to investors' focus on macroeconomic issues, as the risk of economic recession is increasing amid uncertainty in global trade disputes. However, the lack of interest from traders in ETH predates the recent increase in risk aversion sentiment. In fact, in the first three months of 2025, ETH's performance was inferior to the overall cryptocurrency market cap by 28%.

The lackluster price performance following the Pectra upgrade reflects a general dissatisfaction in the market, as other blockchains have shown some development momentum.

Solana monthly active addresses compared to L1 _competitors. Source: _Token Terminal

Historically, high base layer fees on Ethereum may have limited network activity, but these fees have fallen below $1 since mid-February. Additionally, according to Token Terminal data, Ethereum's leading L2 solution, Base, currently has 10.3 million monthly active users, far fewer than Solana's 82.2 million and BNB Chain's 25.9 million.

Is Ethereum lagging in DApp interoperability—will this affect ETH's price?

Solana dominates the DEX space by providing an integrated user experience, especially in token issuance. Similarly, Hyperliquid has exceeded expectations in perpetual contract trading, indicating that traders' primary focus may not necessarily be on Ethereum's decentralization and security. Meanwhile, Tron has made significant strides in the stablecoin market.

Blockchain and DApps 30 _day fees (USD). Source: _DefiLlama

Ethereum still leads in total locked value (TVL) with a scale of $53.7 billion. However, this has not brought much benefit to ETH holders. According to DefiLlama data, Ethereum network fees have been relatively low over the past 30 days, totaling only $19 million. In contrast, Tron accumulated fees of $51.8 million during the same period, while Solana's accumulated fees were $39.4 million.

_Source: _X/ProbablyNoam

Alchemy engineering director Noam Hurwitz pointed out that since the Pectra upgrade, Ethereum's blob fees have dropped to their lowest levels. For Hurwitz, the success of ETH depends on the scalability of the base layer, including further improvements to the Rollup mechanism and ultimately a more seamless user experience.

For a long time, asset and data interoperability within the Ethereum L2 ecosystem has been a challenge, while users on Solana and BNB Chain can easily switch between multiple decentralized applications (DApps). Although the Pectra upgrade has taken a step in the right direction, it has not resolved this issue, which also explains why ETH has failed to return to the $2200 level seen in early March.

To see ETH's price rise 22% from the current $1810, investors may need to ensure that the network's progress (whether through deposits or L2 growth) translates into tangible gains. Ultimately, there is a need to improve staking yields or stronger incentives to drive broader adoption of DApps, which in turn would increase demand for ETH within the ecosystem.

Related articles: Dialogue with the Ethereum Foundation: After the Pectra upgrade, a detailed explanation of the three core strategies for the future

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