Answering the question from "Truant," but I want to say upfront that "what I thought" may not be correct. My viewpoint is that, on one hand, the U.S. does not have systemic risks, and on the other hand, there is a genuine shift towards monetary easing. I agree with what Truant said; from the current perspective, the balance sheet reduction is slowing down, and marginally, it is indeed shifting towards easing, which I strongly agree with.

However, we have not yet truly stopped the balance sheet reduction, nor have we started a continuous rate cut by the Federal Reserve. There is not even a clear answer regarding whether the U.S. economy is declining or continuing to grow. In this context, my own judgment is that we have not yet entered a reversal.

I have three basic definitions for a reversal:

1. Stop QT (Quantitative Tightening)

2. Stop SLR (Supplementary Leverage Ratio)

3A. Enter continuous rate cuts not because of an economic recession

3B. If the rate cuts are due to an economic recession, has the economy begun to stabilize?

Above all, my viewpoint may not be correct, and I must acknowledge that, but this is indeed my genuine thought.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。