Author: Frank, PANews

The points game of Binance Alpha is pushing "involution" to an unprecedented extreme. When the points threshold once broke the 200-point barrier and airdrop earnings plummeted to around $25, the decline in the user investment-output ratio sparked widespread community discussion.

Beneath this seemingly winner-takes-all feast, one viewpoint suggests that its massive traffic is "overflowing" to other ecosystems like Sui and Solana, injecting vitality into them. However, what is the true situation of this overflow effect? What profound impact will this "money-making" frenzy ignited by Binance Alpha ultimately bring to the industry?

The Illusion and Reality of Traffic "Overflow": Observing the Alpha Effect of Sui

The point game mechanism of Binance Alpha has been detailed in previous articles, so it will not be reiterated here. However, generally speaking, as more users participate, the ultimate result is that the earnings from each airdrop have a clear upper limit, while the points threshold continues to rise. In this case, users must further compress costs to retain profit margins.

Recently, Binance Alpha began to launch Sui ecosystem tokens and subsequently announced several Alpha projects within the Sui ecosystem. The addition of the Sui ecosystem provides users who are inflating trading volume with a new cost advantage. On May 14, several KOLs, including @lianyanshe, pointed out that projects like NAVX in the Sui ecosystem have lower gas fees when inflating trading volume and are not susceptible to sandwich bot attacks, resulting in overall lower wear and tear. Therefore, several projects in the Sui ecosystem are set to become the "new volume kings" for Binance Alpha.

If most users choose this form, it could indeed bring considerable trading volume and token popularity to the Sui ecosystem. However, in reality, such effects do not seem to have materialized. According to a PANews investigation, the trading volume of Sui ecosystem tokens on Alpha is not significant, with the highest NAVX only reaching $3.34 million in 24-hour trading volume, while others like HIPPO, BLUE, and SCA had trading volumes ranging from tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of dollars. In contrast, several projects on the Solana chain have trading volumes consistently above $10 million, with some leading projects on BSC exceeding $200 million. However, for NAVX, launching on Binance Alpha did indeed boost its trading volume, reaching $1.6 million on May 13, compared to only a few thousand dollars the day before.

In the actual trading process, it can be observed that the official cross-chain bridge of Binance Wallet currently does not facilitate the exchange of assets between the Sui ecosystem and the BSC chain. Users cannot directly exchange assets like BNB for USDC on Sui; to save on this wear and tear, they must endure the costs of using other cross-chain bridges.

Solana's Leading MEME Unexpectedly Gains Capital Inflow

Solana is one of the ecosystems with the most projects launched on Binance Alpha, aside from BSC. Since May, the overall DEX trading volume on Solana has indeed seen a significant increase. On May 4, Solana's DEX trading volume was $2.2 billion, and by May 15, this figure had risen to $4.59 billion, more than doubling. Several leading tokens launched on Binance Alpha, such as MOODENG and jellyjelly, have indeed experienced a substantial increase in trading volume recently, with notable price surges. For instance, MOODENG's price rose by 140% from its launch until May 14, and the average price increase of the six tokens from the Solana ecosystem launched on Binance Alpha in May reached 12.32%, making it one of the few ecosystems with positive performance among various public chains.

Aside from the Sui and Solana ecosystems, the Sonic ecosystem has perhaps benefited the most from this overflow effect recently. As a new brand of Fantom, Sonic currently needs exposure and capital inflow to break into the mainstream. Although only three Sonic ecosystem projects have been launched on Binance Alpha, the average price increase of the two tokens launched in May reached 65.93% (data as of May 14), ranking the highest among all ecosystems. However, due to the limited number of tokens launched, this does not necessarily indicate that Sonic ecosystem tokens have higher potential.

However, on May 1, when Binance Alpha announced the launch of two Sonic ecosystem projects, the DEX trading volume of the Sonic ecosystem indeed saw a significant surge, skyrocketing from over $73.4 million the previous day to $194 million.

Project Dilemma: Is Launching the Peak or Value Discovery?

From the perspective of the ecosystem, Binance Alpha represents exposure and a hub for traffic aggregation. For project teams, the question is whether launching on Binance Alpha will provide an opportunity for prices to soar. From a data perspective, the 23 tokens launched in May had an average price change of -5.04%, with the largest drop reaching 75%. Although these projects experienced price surges shortly after launching on Binance Alpha, they generally faced significant pullbacks and declines after the initial excitement. This suggests that launching on Binance Alpha does not guarantee the birth of a golden opportunity; it merely adds another trading venue.

Moreover, for projects that launched with airdrop activities, it seems they have not gained market favor as a result. The seven tokens with airdrop activities launched in May had an average decline of 31.5%, and as of May 14, all were in a downtrend. This indicates that airdrop and volume-inflation activities do not necessarily drive price trends upward.

Overall, the projects launched on Binance Alpha have an average market capitalization of $70 million, with the lowest market cap token around $1.6 million and the highest, MOODENG, reaching $271 million. Among them, several newly launched tokens in the Solana ecosystem have an average market cap exceeding $100 million, indicating higher requirements for the Solana ecosystem.

The End of Involution: A Colosseum for Professionals and the Exit of Ordinary Users

For ecosystems and projects, Binance Alpha signifies exposure and a gathering place for traffic. For users, the current involution is eliminating ordinary users, turning it into a battleground for professional studios and large players. As the points threshold reaches 205 points, it means users need to earn at least 15 points daily to keep up with the threshold. Based on a principal of $1,000 (earning 2 points), users also need to inflate trading volume to $8,000 daily to accumulate points. The daily slippage and gas fees for this trading volume may exceed $10. If users fail to meet the next threshold or receive fewer airdrops, they face a losing outcome that is both costly and labor-intensive. The latest airdrop results for the RDAC token show that the amount sold was only $25, making it difficult to cover the cost of 205 points.

It is foreseeable that the points threshold will continue to rise, and according to the current rules, the required points will increase exponentially, necessitating a corresponding increase in trading volume. Either Binance Alpha will raise the airdrop amount for single addresses, or a large number of users will exit the involution, allowing the points threshold to fall back to a reasonable range. However, regardless of the outcome, this game of involution seems to be nearing its end. The DEX trading volume on the BSC chain has also begun to decline in recent days, dropping to $2.64 billion on May 15, down 16.4% from $3.16 billion on May 12.

In summary, the "overflow" effect of Binance Alpha exhibits significant differences across various ecosystems. The Sui ecosystem has not absorbed a large amount of volume-inflation behavior as expected, while the Solana ecosystem has shown stronger positive interaction and growth. For project teams, the short-term highlights brought by Alpha are often difficult to convert into sustained value support, with price declines after initial peaks becoming the norm, and airdrop activities failing to serve as a savior for prices. Each project offering airdrops has become a "payer" for Binance's promotional wallet products.

The more core issue is that this points-driven frenzy is ruthlessly pushing ordinary users out of the table. The continuously rising points threshold and exponentially increasing trading volume demands, combined with shrinking airdrop returns, are causing Binance Alpha to gradually evolve into a "zero-sum game" for professional studios and large players. The recent decline in DEX trading volume on the BSC chain also seems to indicate that this reliance on high-intensity "involution" is approaching its sustainability threshold.

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