Bitcoin recently reached a historic high of $111,970, igniting optimism among cryptocurrency market participants. However, analysts indicate that whether this upward trend can continue into the third quarter of this year remains uncertain.

Bitfinex analysts noted in a market report on May 28: "The coming weeks may determine whether Bitcoin's current breakout is a local peak or a precursor to a more vigorous rise in the third quarter."

Consolidation or moderate pullback may be "beneficial for health"

Despite Bitcoin (BTC) hitting a historic peak of $111,970 on May 22, Bitfinex analysts believe that a sustained price increase alone is not enough to confirm an upward trend for the next quarter. Analysts stated: "A period of consolidation or moderate pullback is not only healthy but can also lay a more sustainable foundation for subsequent increases."

It is not uncommon for Bitcoin to experience long-term consolidation after reaching a historic high. After Bitcoin hit a high of $73,679 in March 2024, it oscillated around the $20,000 range until November of that year when Trump was elected President of the United States.

According to CoinGlass data, the third quarter has historically been the worst-performing quarter for Bitcoin since 2013, with an average return of only 6.03% over the past 11 years. The second quarter, which performed second worst, has a historical average return of 27.25%.

Analysts noted that Bitcoin has entered a "short-term consolidation phase," with a significant number of short-term holders (those holding for less than 155 days) selling off their positions in the past 30 days.

"Short-term holders have realized over $11.4 billion in profits in the past month, and a short-term supply surplus is foreseeable—yet structural demand also exists. According to Bitbo data, the realized price for short-term holders is $95,781, while Bitcoin's trading price at the time of this article's publication is $108,929."

This means that short-term holders have an average profit of 13.72%.

Bitfinex analysts pointed out that the "buy support" from Bitcoin ETFs, low volatility, and the Bitcoin spot premium all indicate that the market is maturing, stating, "Once the macro situation becomes clear, the upward trend will ultimately continue."

As of the week ending May 23, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded approximately $2.75 billion in inflows.

Cryptocurrency investors are closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on June 18 for clear signals regarding the macroeconomic situation. In May, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged in the range of 4.25% to 4.50%.

Earlier this month, Bitcoin reached a historic high, a trend that has been predicted by several cryptocurrency experts. On March 7, Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten predicted that Bitcoin had a 50% chance of reaching a new high before June.

Coincidentally, Real Vision's chief cryptocurrency analyst Jamie Coutts also stated that Bitcoin might "reach a historic high before the end of the second quarter."

Related: Senator Lummis: Trump supports the acquisition of one million Bitcoin (BTC) bill

This article does not constitute any investment advice. All investment and trading activities carry risks, and readers should conduct their own research before making decisions.

Original article: “Will Bitcoin (BTC) Price See Significant Increases in the Third Quarter? Bitfinex Analysts Say Uncertain”

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