Musk criticizes that 25% of U.S. government revenue is used to pay debt interest; this round of new highs sees BTC holders cashing out, averaging a 16% profit per coin!

Macro Interpretation: The ongoing turmoil in U.S. fiscal policy is becoming a catalyst for the rise of Bitcoin. Musk recently launched a fierce attack on the "Beautiful Bill" supported by Trump on social media, calling it "absurd and filled with political manipulation," warning that the bill would cause the budget deficit to soar to $2.5 trillion, burdening American citizens with an unbearable debt load. He even pointed out that interest payments now account for 25% of government revenue, and if deficit spending continues, fiscal revenue will only be enough to pay interest, leaving no funds for other areas like Social Security, healthcare, and defense. The rapid opposition between Musk and Trump, once allies, reflects the intensifying internal policy divisions. Although the White House denies that the bill will increase the deficit, Coinbase's CEO warns of a more thought-provoking scenario: if the U.S. Congress fails to address the $37 trillion debt issue, Bitcoin could replace the dollar as the global reserve currency. In fact, states like New Hampshire and Arizona have begun to reserve Bitcoin to hedge against the risk of dollar depreciation, and six Nobel laureates in economics are also concerned that the bill will exacerbate debt and inequality. These events are not isolated; combined with the unexpected surge in U.S. job vacancies to 7.39 million in April (far exceeding the expected 7.1 million), it superficially supports the Fed's claim of a "strong job market," but economists generally warn that Trump's tariff policy may lead to a weak labor market in the coming months. This fiscal pressure and debt risk are driving institutional investors to view Bitcoin as a safe haven, similar to gold during inflationary periods, thereby enhancing the long-term demand foundation for BTC.

The Bitcoin market itself is experiencing a critical turning point, with short-term volatility coexisting with long-term potential. Data from CoinAnk shows that after Bitcoin broke its historical high, the activity of investors cashing out significantly increased, with an average profit of about 16% per BTC, and less than 8% of trading days yielding higher returns, marking a clear cash-out phase in the market. Meanwhile, the BTC price briefly dipped to a low of $103,000 in early June, with fierce competition between bulls and bears; currently, BTC is in a range-bound oscillation, but the market is closely watching this Friday's non-farm payroll report data. Economists predict that new non-farm jobs will only increase by 125,000, below the "breakeven growth rate" of 153,000. If the data is weak, it may push up the unemployment rate and strengthen expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates within the year. Rate cuts typically benefit risk assets, including the crypto market, but short-term uncertainty still brings volatility. Notably, the rise of tokenized Bitcoin is expanding BTC's utility: WBTC and cbBTC together have locked over 172,000 Bitcoins (worth about $18 billion), with WBTC accounting for 81%, dominating Ethereum DeFi transactions, while Coinbase's cbBTC performs well on the Base chain, with an average of 7,000 active addresses daily. Although these innovations carry centralization risks, they connect Bitcoin's store of value function with programmable economies, potentially attracting more institutional funds.

The overall crypto market is not without challenges, as regulatory uncertainty and the weakness of altcoins are diversifying investment opportunities. The SEC's political maneuvering regarding the crypto bill CLARITY Act has raised concerns, with Democrats accusing it of refusing to provide key technical analysis while leaking information to Republicans. This bill aims to create a regulatory framework for the crypto industry but may impact traditional securities markets and create technical loopholes. Maxine Waters plans to write to the SEC chairman demanding transparency in handling the matter, with the bill set to enter the committee marking stage on June 10. If the regulatory framework becomes clearer, it may boost market confidence, but the current uncertainty has suppressed some pro-crypto Democratic lawmakers' support, increasing market volatility risk. Meanwhile, the performance of altcoins has been disappointing, with institutional reports indicating that despite BTC hitting new highs, altcoins are constrained by token unlocks and a lack of new narratives, as the old hype model has failed under a 4.5% U.S. Treasury yield. Ethereum has shifted to a "staking for moderate returns" phase. A few large buy orders can drive altcoin surges, but maintaining upward momentum requires widespread participation from retail investors—over the past year, the narrative of "altcoin explosion season" has repeatedly fallen flat, highlighting that funds are concentrating on core assets like BTC. The divergence among Trump-related crypto companies adds to the chaos: Magic Eden launched a digital wallet named after Trump, but it was denied by his eldest son, who stated that WLFI would launch the official wallet. This infighting may undermine market trust in celebrity-backed projects, underscoring the need for a more mature foundation in the crypto space.

In summary, the impact of these events on the crypto market and BTC can be summarized as "short-term pressure, long-term bullish." On one hand, the expanding U.S. fiscal deficit and increasing debt risk are accelerating Bitcoin's "safe haven" narrative, attracting state-level reserves and institutional allocations, potentially pushing BTC to challenge the $120,000 high by the end of 2024. The rise of tokenized Bitcoin further strengthens demand, and if the Fed's rate cut expectations are realized, it will lower financing costs, benefiting the entire crypto market. On the other hand, regulatory uncertainty (such as the SEC bill controversy) and infighting within Trump's entities may suppress innovation and trigger short-term selling pressure, particularly affecting altcoins and emerging projects. Investors need to be cautious: if the employment report falls short of expectations, it may exacerbate BTC volatility; due to a lack of new narratives, funds may further concentrate on BTC, leading to increased market divergence. Operationally, it is recommended to accumulate BTC at key support levels and pay attention to regulatory developments and tokenization progress (such as the expansion of cbBTC on the Base chain), while avoiding altcoins with high unlock pressure. In conclusion, Bitcoin is moving from the margins to the mainstream, but this fiscal storm reminds us that the maturity of the crypto market still requires time, and BTC's rise will be the most worthwhile turning point to bet on in the debt era.

BTC* Data* Analysis: CoinAnk data shows that the breakthrough of Bitcoin's historical peak has triggered a significant wave of profit-taking, with on-chain data indicating that the average profit per BTC reached $16,800 (about 16%), a profit level that exceeds 92% of historical trading days, reflecting that investors are making rational position adjustments. This round of profit-taking shows structured characteristics—long-term holders (LTH) account for only 3.2% of the holdings being cashed out, while short-term holders (STH) account for 67% of the selling pressure, indicating that the market is not experiencing panic selling.

The current profit-taking is having some impact on the crypto market, with technical support levels (corresponding to $2.8 billion in open options contracts) suppressing deep correction risks; secondly, the miner position index (MPI) has rebounded to -0.35, combined with ETF net inflows, creating a new funding balance; finally, the growth rate of stablecoin market capitalization is positively correlated with the scale of selling pressure (correlation coefficient 0.78), indicating that profit funds may flow back into the crypto ecosystem. Historical data shows that the probability of continuing to hit new highs within 60 days after a similar moderate profit-taking phase is 73%, but caution is needed regarding derivative market risks—the divergence between futures open contracts and funding rates at -0.02% may amplify short-term volatility to ±8%. Given the current large market capitalization of Bitcoin, small and mid-cap tokens may take the opportunity to initiate a rotational rebound.

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