Macroeconomic Interpretation: The global central bank interest rate cut wave is becoming the core driving force of the cryptocurrency market. The European Central Bank's interest rate cut on June 6 has almost become a foregone conclusion. Market analysis suggests that considering the continued decline in inflation in the Eurozone and the tightening of the U.S. trade stance towards the EU, interest rates may further drop to around 1.5% by the end of the year. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar continues to weaken, approaching a two-year low. Bank of America Securities predicts this will drive funds into emerging market assets, bringing considerable returns, with the dollar's weakness being the most critical driving factor. Expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut are also rising, with the CME FedWatch tool showing the probability of a rate cut in September soaring from 2% to 4.4%, marking the largest single-day increase this year.

The expectation of interest rate cuts directly stimulates the growth in demand for crypto assets. The latest data shows that the number of Bitcoin holders in the U.S. has reached 49.6 million, significantly surpassing the 36.7 million gold holders, and the average holding amount ($11,089) is more than seven times that of gold ($1,512). This clearly indicates that crypto assets have broken through niche areas and become an important option for mainstream asset allocation.

On-chain data is sending positive signals. CoinAnk data monitoring shows that the Bitcoin Hash Ribbons indicator has flashed a buy signal—this indicator assesses miner pressure by comparing the 30-day and 60-day moving averages of hash power. Recently, after hash power reached a historical high, some miners faced short-term pressure and were forced to sell BTC, but history shows that such selling pressure often forms a long-term bottom. The miner holding index has also dropped to 0.49, close to historical low areas, further confirming that the selling pressure is nearing its end.

Macroeconomic policy uncertainty is also accumulating. The relationship between Trump and Musk has recently deteriorated sharply, with Musk expressing strong dissatisfaction over the White House's withdrawal of his ally NASA director nomination and publicly criticizing Trump's tax policies. A White House official revealed, "The president is perplexed by Musk's sudden attack after months of close cooperation." If the relationship between tech leaders and the political sphere continues to be tense, it may affect the stability of the cryptocurrency regulatory environment.

The Ethereum ecosystem, on the other hand, demonstrates strategic resilience. The Ethereum Foundation (EF) has released a new financial policy, clearly stating that annual operating expenses will be compressed to a long-term benchmark of 5%, with funds focused on enhancing DeFi security, privacy protection, and decentralized protocol innovation. The EF emphasizes injecting long-term confidence into the ecosystem by supporting the development of the "Defipunk" concept through periodic ETH sales and deployments.

The market harbors structural risks. Data from pump.fun shows that among over 4.25 million frequently trading addresses in the past six months, more than 60% are losers, with only 21.5% achieving small profits ($0-1,000). More alarmingly, about 1,700 addresses have lost over $100,000. This reveals a clear "few people profit" effect in the current market, where blindly chasing highs and cutting losses can easily become "fuel."

This round of the bull market cycle presents a unique trajectory. Unlike in 2017 and 2021, the current bull market is experiencing a phenomenon of "artificial market suppression"—large institutions are delaying overheating by creating sharp pullbacks, such as the two significant adjustments in March 2024 and January 2025, which significantly suppressed the performance of altcoins and market sentiment. Historical patterns suggest that this suppression will eventually be released in a "frenzied bubble" phase.

As for the impact on the crypto market, BTC stands to benefit in the short term: the dual positives of interest rate cut expectations and a weakening dollar create favorable conditions, with on-chain buy signals and the end of miner selling pressure combining to potentially open a rebound window for BTC. Mainstream coin value reassessment: the number of U.S. holders surpassing gold confirms the mainstreaming of crypto assets, and projects like ETH with actual ecological support will attract long-term capital.

Policy sensitivity is increasing: Trump's unpredictable behavior and the fluctuating relationship between tech giants and the political sphere may amplify the impact of regulatory uncertainty.

The current market is at a delicate balance point—macroeconomic easing faces miner selling pressure and technical adjustment demands, while retail enthusiasm and institutional control are in a tug-of-war. Investors should seize opportunities to accumulate core assets (like BTC and ETH) on dips, but remain cautious of altcoins lacking substantial support. History does not simply repeat itself, but it often carries similar rhythms: when the gates of artificial suppression are released, the market will ultimately seek new price anchor points in the wave of liquidity.

BTC Data Analysis:

CoinAnk data shows that after the Bitcoin network's computing power broke its peak, some miners were forced to reduce their Bitcoin reserves due to soaring operating costs, creating short-term market selling pressure. However, historical patterns indicate that such miner-driven sell-offs often correspond to the formation of long-term market bottom areas. The current miner holding index has fallen to a historical low of 0.49, combined with the latest buy signal triggered by the Hash Ribbons indicator, pointing towards the completion of the market clearing process. This indicator effectively captures the turning points of miner operational pressure by monitoring the crossover changes of the 30-day and 60-day moving averages of hash power, and historical data shows that its signals are often followed by significant price recovery cycles.

From a market impact perspective, while short-term miner selling exacerbates liquidity pressure, it essentially represents a passive supply release. When sustained high hash power leads to the exit of inefficient miners, the overall mining cost structure is optimized, thereby solidifying the market's bottom support. Historical cases (such as a 260% increase following the indicator's trigger in 2019) show that Hash Ribbons buy signals often precede the initiation of a new upward trend. The current phase reflects not only the short-term pain of miners under pressure but also highlights positive signals for market supply-demand rebalancing— as inefficient capacity is cleared, combined with the holding index hitting bottom and the resonance of on-chain indicators, the crypto market may be nurturing an important allocation opportunity.

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