The "Best" Business Model: Why Does It Often Target the Softest Parts of Human Nature?
When people are unable to "make money" on a macro level, they seek "stimulation" on a micro level—blind boxes reduce the gambling threshold to a level of pocket change, making emotional compensation as accessible as a power bank, but also allowing dopamine bills to accumulate quietly.
In an era of deflation, "emotional value / expenditure" has become the new cost-performance ratio. Pop Mart provides stimulation, Mixue Bingcheng offers social interaction, and Laopu Gold provides security—they collectively satisfy people's psychological contract of "low cost, quick redemption, and high visibility," which is the true underlying logic of their explosive popularity. They all allow consumers to purchase a "sense of identity" with extremely low-cost spending.
Embedding the uncertainty of "maybe winning the jackpot next time" into repetitive actions can amplify the prediction error of rewards in the brain and trigger stronger, more persistent dopamine surges, ultimately forming a closed loop of "payment—feedback—desire."
In the process of studying large models over the past two years, I have also researched many books on brain science. In this article, I attempt to analyze the explosive popularity of Pop Mart and Labubu from the perspectives of brain science and behavioral finance.
Many people are puzzled as to why so-called new consumption has emerged in the current climate of low consumer spending, whether it be Pop Mart, Mixue Bingcheng, or Laopu Gold.
From the perspective of human nature, although real prices are falling, the "psychological price" that people feel is rising—they must exchange less money for the same amount or even more emotional value.
Pop Mart: By using "blind boxes + IP," it packages gambling psychology into trendy culture, essentially providing "low-cost dopamine"—a variable reward addiction mechanism. When macro returns decline, fast, strong, and cheap emotional stimulation becomes a substitute—blind boxes reduce gambling costs to a daily "emotional quick charge";
Laopu Gold: It has found a sweeter spot on the "value storage + flaunting" curve at a lower price than traditional luxury goods, combining "security + flaunting" in an uncertain era. People want to show off (Veblen effect) while fearing missing out (asset anxiety). Gold jewelry packages "flaunting" and "risk aversion" together, solving the flaunting paradox;
**Mixue Bingcheng: It reduces the identity consumption of milk tea to a "5 yuan social symbol," which is essentially an "affordable identity symbol"—a discount sale of social capital. In the context of expanding income stratification, "affordable flaunting" satisfies the instinctive need to align upward: I may not be able to afford Haidilao, but I can still leave traces on social media saying "I am enjoying life too."
Their commonality lies not in the classic sense of the "Giffen effect," but in satisfying the upward identity imagination of social strata with the lowest bearable cost—a broad sense of "cheap identity economics."
Next, let's analyze the addiction mechanism of variable rewards in detail.
1 │ Neural Level: Dopamine as a "Prediction Error" Amplifier
From the operational mechanism of the brain, dopamine is not a "happiness hormone," but a "difference signal." Predictable = small difference, random = large difference → addiction risk increases monotonically with "reward variance."
Trigger: Electrode recordings show that the amplitude of dopamine pulses triggered by uncertain rewards in the VTA→NAc (nucleus accumbens) is greater than that of predictable rewards. The brain updates value using δ = actual reward – expected reward; the larger δ is, the faster learning reinforcement occurs;
Transfer: After repeated actions, the cue itself can activate dopamine in advance—gamblers feel excitement before pulling the lever; cue → desire; prize → satisfaction; the time misalignment of the two forms a long-term driving loop.
Resistance to decay: After stopping rewards, the VR group shows the slowest behavioral decay (classic Skinner box experiment). The brain treats "no reward" as an explainable random event → behavior does not easily disappear.
2 │ Cognitive Level: Three Psychological Illusions Keep People "Hooked"
Near-Miss: Slot machines showing "two cherries + one bell" make players feel "so close to winning," encoding failure as "almost success," maintaining positive expectations;
Illusion of control: Rolling dice with force, "picking box corners" in blind boxes gives a sense of self-agency, reducing risk anxiety.
Sunk cost & expectation shield: "I've already drawn 8 times, one more time must win," prior investment → increases subjective winning probability → self-justification to continue investing.
3 │ Behavioral Level: How the "Dopamine Loop" Tames Repetitive Actions
Cue → Action → Variable Reward → Dopamine Spike → Memory Consolidation → Craving → Cue…
Cue: Visual/IP cues, countdowns, push notifications
Action: Drawing boxes, placing orders, refreshing
Variable Reward: R₁…Rₙ follows P(Rᵢ)≠const → increases reward entropy
Spike: δ↑ triggers NAc phasic DA, reinforcing memory
Memory: The hippocampus binds "fun + action"
Craving: Environmental cues reappear → DA pre-activation → craving escalates
Variable rewards amplify "small bets" into "dopamine peaks." Predictable differences → δ↑, the uncertainty of drop rates maximizes prediction error (δ), and VTA-NAc dopamine pulses are significantly stronger than fixed rewards. Near-Miss reinforcement, the near-miss feedback of "almost winning a hidden item" further increases repurchase intention. Non-continuous frequency, intermittent/high variance rewards can maintain continuous DA release and promote drug-like sensitization.
During economic downturns, as external "jackpots" decrease, the brain uses higher variance mini-games to create equivalent intensity surprises.
4 │ The "Addictive Formula" in Product Design
Random + Scarcity: Hidden items in blind boxes, SSR card drop rate 0.2%
Tiered prizes: Small prizes are high frequency, big prizes are ultra-low frequency (Power-law)
Multi-channel reach: Offline queuing × online live streaming × secondary trading in communities
Time lock: Limited-time replicas, midnight purchases
Advanced tasks: "Ten draws guarantee a rare" / "Cumulative draws return benefits"
The power of the variable reward mechanism lies not in how much reward it gives, but in how it keeps the brain perpetually uncertain about "what will happen next." In an uncertain era, this "uncertain certainty" can most effectively leverage human desire and is easily amplified by product designers into commercial profits—along with potential addiction risks.
Why Has "Cheap Gambling" Become Emotional Quick Charging During Deflation? — The Dual Drive of Macro Return Exhaustion × Variable Reward Addiction?
① Macro Return Exhaustion: The Failure of Wealth "Positive Feedback" Channels
Real interest rates turn negative: In 2025, the one-year deposit rate for banks falls below 1% for the first time, while CPI is -0.7%, nominal returns are almost eroded.
Asset appreciation stories are interrupted: Housing prices stagnate, stock indices fluctuate; new household deposits continue to rise (March 2025 +3.1 trillion yuan, far above the long-term average);
As a result: The traditional "profit margin" path is ineffective, and the average cost of obtaining positive emotions rises.
② Behavioral Economics Backlash of Emotional Gaps
Loss framing: The convexity of the "loss segment" in prospect theory leads to increased risk-seeking behavior due to scarce returns, willing to gamble small amounts (59–99 yuan) for hidden items;
Decreasing opportunity cost: Low interest rates = lower requirements for idle money, perceived investment thresholds decrease, "one blind box ≈ a cup of coffee," minimal psychological burden;
Time discounting effect: Long-term returns are uncertain, preferring immediate feedback, drawing a box yields results in 10 seconds, satisfying immediate returns, just like short videos lock in our leisure time. Both sides embed "low threshold × high variance × quick feedback" into daily fragmented time, forming a routine of small gambling/small rewards.
Under the pressure of deflation and emotional lows, Pop Mart has turned "blind boxes × scarcity drop rates × social amplification" into a self-accelerating emotional printing machine: random → prediction error ↑ → dopamine peaks ↑ → social flaunting ↑ → new players ↑ → higher randomness → … periodically amplifying until regulation or emotional fatigue halts the flywheel.
1 │ Breakdown of Reward Scripts
A. Bait public drop rate table (hidden item 1/144), indicating extremely low probability + clear "big prizes," activating evolutionary rare-item bias.
B. Drawing boxes costs 59–99 yuan per time, completed in as fast as 10 seconds. Variable-Ratio (VR) drop table, δ=actual reward−expected reward → VTA-NAc dopamine pulses ↑.
C. Near-Miss secondary premium list rolls in real-time, creating an atmosphere of "almost winning," Near-Miss effect → increases behavioral persistence.
D. Social flaunting brings topics of unboxing, completing sets, public leaderboards & user-generated content, group witnessing → external dopamine boosts (likes, comments).
E. High-priced cashing out of hidden items for top users provides realization, reinforcing successful memory through wealth feedback loops.
2 │ Why Has Labubu Become the "Strongest Catalyst"?
Design Aspect: High Variance Plasticity
A "cute-ugly" prototype + infinite themes (ocean, Halloween…) → drop tables can easily raise Reward Entropy.
Visual Expectation Gap
The "weird-cute" mix of rabbit ears + jagged teeth makes it difficult for users to accurately imagine the appearance of the drawn item → natural large expectation error.
Social Media Compatibility
3–6 cm size, saturated colors, naturally fits TikTok's 15-second unboxing shots; #Labubu topic has 1.4 M+ exposures.
Secondary Liquidity
Hidden items on eBay/StockX are priced at 10–20× normal → "winning the jackpot" has realizable real returns.
3 │ Three "Turbines" Accelerating the Dopamine Loop
T1: Community synchronization, drawing boxes—sharing—group buying—exchanging, 876,000 mentions on social media within a month (Jan-May 2025).
T2: Celebrity endorsements, Rihanna, Dua Lipa, and others wearing the same styles, Vogue Business reports that celebrity effects boost the adult "Kidult" trend.
T3: Scarcity control, offline sales paused in the UK to "ensure safety" → doubling the sense of scarcity, the suspension of sales in 16 UK Pop Mart stores triggered a series of news reports.
Social Amplifier: From Individual Excitement to Collective Frenzy
Social media visualization—TikTok #Labubu topic exceeds 1.4 million; unboxing videos broadcast individual "winning peaks" to potential players.
Cashing out channels—hidden items in the secondary market priced at 10–20×, making "good luck" a real monetary reward, further reinforcing the behavioral cycle.
Celebrity Endorsements—Star Street Style Reduces the Social Risk of "Taking a Gamble," Instead Bestowing Trendy Identity Labels.
However, trees do not grow to the sky; variable rewards ≠ perpetual motion machine
Upper Limit: When δ (prediction error) is recognized by players and the transparency of drop rates increases, the dopamine boost diminishes → the extinction phase of behavior arrives quickly.
Lower Limit: As long as linear predictability is 100%, there will always be new players drawn in by the difference signal.
Regulatory Outlook: Public probability, paid cooling-off periods, and daily limits for minors are almost certain to become the next implemented measures—keep an eye on Pop Mart announcements and changes in the statements from the Ministry of Culture and the State Administration for Market Regulation.
Labubu's GMV is still climbing, but the dopamine dividend ≈ "exponential curve × regulatory oversight"—the closer it gets to the inflection point, the more volatile it becomes.
The high-frequency dopamine model is highly profitable during macro low-growth periods, but its cash flow is overly sensitive to ① reward variance, ② regulatory temperature, ③ user attention inventory. Betting on growth also requires monitoring the brakes: when δ declines or policies are cut, the speed of valuation compression can match that of its expansion.
Blind boxes and short videos have tuned the "prediction error-dopamine" engine evolved in our brains to high RPMs, allowing us to gain "seemingly profitable but not" instant gratification in every 10-second gap. However, when high-frequency stimulation becomes the norm, the muscles for long-term focus and deep thinking will atrophy. Understanding the mechanism and setting proper thresholds is essential to both "recharge" emotions and avoid cognitive overdraft.
Finally, let's reflect on why the "best" business models, such as luxury goods, Hermès, Ferrari, and Moutai, often tap into the softest parts of human nature.
High-profit and high-stickiness business models often do not create demand out of thin air but rather amplify existing preferences and shortcomings in the human evolutionary path—engineering them into scalable cash flow machines.
The most profitable models often start from human weaknesses, but those that can transcend cycles ultimately need to translate weaknesses into positive habits or network effects, designing a secondary flywheel that can convert short-term stimulation into long-term value.
The end.
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