This paragraph is too realistic:
The illusion of hindsight in human nature is very strong.
If one is not beaten by the real world for twenty or thirty years, and if one does not seriously and systematically review the various mistakes they have made, they may sincerely and frivolously believe that they can easily seize opportunities for tenfold or hundredfold stocks in the future.
But when real opportunities come, either they cannot grasp them; or if they do, they make a little money and run; or they are lured by false opportunities, start making a little money, and then quickly fall into a big pit, losing even more.
This implies a complex reflection on human misjudgment, self-awareness, investment psychology, historical analogy, and the evolution of knowledge—
The biggest investment illusion is thinking that "the current me" can make "future god-like moves."
Opportunities are not seized by intuition; they are expanded inch by inch through the boundaries of understanding.
If one cannot honestly review past foolishness, they cannot truly understand future difficulties.
Reflection is not about reviewing results, but about training how to make judgments in the present with less emotional influence.
To navigate through cycles, one must first find information that others overlook but they can understand—this is the source of alpha.
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