In the early hours of today (Beijing time, June 24), U.S. President Trump announced via social media that Israel and Iran have reached a "comprehensive ceasefire agreement," with both sides gradually halting military actions within the next 24 hours. This news quickly ignited market optimism, with Bitcoin's price soaring from an early low of $98,200 to a high of $106,075, marking an intraday increase of over 8%. Major cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and Solana also rebounded, and the total market capitalization of the crypto market rose to $3.3 trillion, a 6% increase from the previous day's low.

The dramatic turn of the ceasefire agreement stems from the recent intensive actions of the Trump administration in the Middle East: from the airstrike on Iranian nuclear facilities on June 22, to hints of "regime change," and finally facilitating the ceasefire. In just 48 hours, geopolitical risks shifted from "tension" to "reconciliation," causing significant fluctuations in market sentiment.

1. Liquidation Wave: $495 Million Vanished

Following the ceasefire announcement, a large-scale short liquidation occurred in the crypto market. According to CoinGlass data, the total liquidation amount across the network reached $495 million in the past 24 hours, with short positions accounting for over 76%, marking the largest short squeeze event of the year. A single ETH-USDT contract on one exchange saw a liquidation amount as high as $12.14 million, highlighting the liquidity risks in extreme market conditions.

2. Capital Flow: Divergence Between Institutions and Retail Investors

Despite the rapid market rebound, capital flows showed divergence:

• Institutional Side: Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of over $1 billion for two consecutive weeks, becoming a key force supporting prices.

• Retail Side: The Fear and Greed Index dropped to 37 (indicating fear), and the altcoin season index remained at a low of 14, showing that small and medium investors are still taking a wait-and-see approach.

This divergence suggests that the current rebound is more driven by programmatic buying and short covering rather than a consensus bullish sentiment in the market.

1. Bitcoin: Key Resistance and Support Battle

• Short-term Resistance: The $105,000-$110,000 range has a large number of trapped positions, becoming the focal point of the battle between bulls and bears.

• Core Support: The $94,000-$95,000 range is viewed as a "strong bottom" by several institutions; a drop below this level could trigger panic selling.

Technical analyst Crypto Caesar pointed out that Bitcoin's daily chart is forming a "head and shoulders bottom" reversal pattern. If it can hold above $105,000, it may initiate a new wave of upward movement. However, the Bitfinex Alpha report warns that without new capital entering the market, it may maintain a volatile pattern in the short term.

2. Ethereum: Concerns Behind Weak Rebound

Although Ethereum rebounded to $2,440, it has not yet reclaimed the key psychological level of $2,500. On-chain data shows that its staking yield has risen to 3.8%, but the growth in staking volume is weak, and ecological activity has not shown significant improvement. Analysts are concerned that if the Pectra upgrade fails to activate developer enthusiasm as expected, ETH may face the risk of a "double bottom."

1. Revalidation of Risk Aversion Logic

This event once again confirms the sensitivity of cryptocurrencies to geopolitical risks:

• During Escalation: Bitcoin briefly fell below $100,000 due to liquidity squeezes, moving in tandem with gold and oil.

• During De-escalation: Funds quickly flowed back into risk assets, with Bitcoin's single-day rebound far exceeding that of U.S. stocks.

This characteristic of "sharp declines and sharp rebounds" reflects that crypto assets have not completely shed the label of "high-risk speculative products," but their decentralized nature is building an alternative narrative for risk aversion.

2. Long-term Impact of Policy Uncertainty

The erratic foreign policy of the Trump administration has become the biggest variable in the crypto market. From tariff policies to regulatory stances, its decisions often trigger chain reactions. Trader Eugene admitted, "We have to reassess our risk models after every White House statement, which greatly increases the cost of holding positions."

Although the ceasefire agreement temporarily eases the situation, potential risks remain:

• Iranian Official Denial: The Iranian Foreign Minister stated that "no substantive agreement has been reached with Israel," laying the groundwork for future variables.

• Technical Risks: The skew of put options in the Bitcoin derivatives market remains high, indicating that traders are skeptical about the medium to long-term outlook.

Investor Strategy Recommendations:

• Short-term: Pay attention to the effectiveness of breaking above $105,000; if met with resistance, consider partial profit-taking.

• Long-term: In the context of normalized geopolitical conflicts, dollar-cost averaging and hedging may be a better solution.

Within 24 hours, the crypto market illustrated the power of "geopolitical pricing" with a deep V-shaped rebound. When war and peace become footnotes on the candlestick chart, investors must maintain reverence to seize opportunities in the eye of the storm. As a seasoned trader said, "In the crypto world, the biggest risk is not volatility, but the assumption that one can predict volatility."

Original text: “Geopolitical Situation Hits the Brakes: Crypto Markets Stage a 24-Hour Reversal Drama — How the Middle East Ceasefire Agreement Triggered a Deep V Rebound in Bitcoin?”

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