Event Review 📝

In just one hour, ETH experienced significant volatility, rapidly rising from the consolidation range around 06:00 to a short-term high at 07:05, followed by some profit-taking that brought the price back down to about $2495. The market was driven not only by signals of macroeconomic easing policies, such as Trump's call for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates and expectations of the Fed maintaining rates, but also by a large influx of institutional funds and the release of positive technical signals. Traders observed data indicating that the entry of institutional funds, whale operations, and even the rapid increase in DeFi protocol TVL provided solid support for ETH's short-term rise.

Timeline ⏱

• 06:00: The market started buying, with ETH price hovering around the 2429–2430 range. KDJ golden cross and RSI breaking above 50 indicated the emergence of bullish sentiment.
• 06:10: Macroeconomic easing signals began to surface on social media, conveying a "risk on" sentiment that stimulated buying in risk assets.
• 06:29: Some active traders started to deploy long positions in ETH, with market buying power clearly concentrated.
• 06:36: News released indicating an 81.9% probability that the Fed would maintain interest rates in July eased regulatory risks and enhanced market optimism.
• 06:38: ETH's market cap share increased to 9.09%, showing that both institutional and retail funds were entering the market, further intensifying the buying effect.
• 06:46: The price quickly climbed from about 2429 to 2506, with a 3.15% increase within 46 minutes, driven by strong buying.
• 06:47: ETH successfully broke through the $2500 mark, further strengthening short-term technical signals.
• 07:05: With continued buying pressure, ETH price reached 2524, demonstrating a strong short-term upward trend.
• 07:15: As profit-taking occurred, ETH price adjusted back to about 2494.99, temporarily concluding the volatility phase.

Reason Analysis 🔍

The sharp volatility in this round of ETH trading is attributed to multiple overlapping factors:

• Macroeconomic Policy Easing: Recent signals from the U.S. market, including Trump's call for the Fed to lower interest rates, along with the Fed Chair's statements on economic uncertainty, have eased market concerns about regulatory risks. Especially under the expectation that the Fed will maintain rates in July, investor interest in risk assets has significantly increased.
• Institutional Fund Inflow: On-chain data and exchanges show that recently, both whale funds and institutional-level recharge funds have been continuously flowing into the ETH market. Additionally, the rising TVL of DeFi protocols like BlackRock's BUIDL further proves the market's active ecosystem and increased institutional involvement.
• Improved Market Sentiment: Technical indicators (such as KDJ golden cross and RSI breaking above 50) released buy signals, combined with positive discussions on social media about easing risks, quickly gathered short-term buying power, leading to explosive market movements.

Technical Analysis 📊

Based on the 45-minute K-line data of Binance USDT perpetual contracts, we can see:

• Price Movement and Bollinger Bands: The price is running along the upper Bollinger Band, indicating a strong upward trend in the short term; however, the price nearing the upper band suggests that the market is in an overbought state, posing a risk of short-term correction.
• Indicator Signals: The KDJ golden cross and RSI breaking above 50 both show buy signals, driving bullish sentiment; however, the extreme overbought J value and the OBV indicator turning negative suggest that the market may face some profit-taking and panic selling.
• Trading Volume and Liquidation Situation: Trading volume surged significantly (up 250.94% compared to the 10-day average), indicating that market trading is exceptionally active. Additionally, the total liquidation amount across the network approached ten million dollars, with short positions accounting for as much as 91%, showing that the market's long-short battle is exceptionally fierce, indicating that volatility risks in the future cannot be ignored.
• Moving Average Arrangement: ETH price is currently above the MA5, MA10, MA20, and EMA series moving averages, establishing a bullish arrangement that confirms a strong upward trend in the short term, but technical overbought indicators also require vigilance for potential correction signals.

Market Outlook 🚀

Currently, ETH is strengthening in the short term due to multiple positive signals, but there is still a risk of correction in the near term:

• If the price can stabilize above the EMA24 and EMA52 moving averages, it may continue to attract institutional entry, driving further upward movement; however, the overbought states of the RSI and J indicators suggest a risk of profit-taking.
• On the macro front, the direction of U.S. policies remains uncertain, and any minor changes could impact market sentiment, so investors should pay attention to subsequent Fed policies and related macro data.
• On the technical front, although buying pressure is strong, the surging trading volume and liquidation data remind us that the long-short battle in the market may intensify in a short time, and investors should remain cautious and manage their positions wisely.

In summary, the short-term market for ETH is characterized by both surprises and risks. For medium to short-term investors, closely monitoring technical indicators and changes in trading volume, as well as keeping an eye on macro policy updates, will help better grasp entry and exit opportunities. Rational operation and quantitative risk control are wise moves in the face of a volatile market.

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