BTC's summer consolidation phase may be coming to an end, with BTC prices testing key breakthrough resistance levels, potentially entering a new upward range. The actual volatility of BTC has dropped to near multi-year lows, with one-week implied volatility maintaining around 30%. The decline in volatility not only reflects a maturing market structure but also opens up participation space for risk-averse institutional investors.

Strong Inflows into BTC Spot ETFs, Market Cap Growth Requires More Capital Support

BTC ETF inflows have surprisingly remained resilient. Since April, approximately $14 billion has flowed into BTC spot ETFs, about $4 billion more than the inflow corresponding to the spot price. This portion of "real demand" is highly sticky, showing almost no significant short-term speculative signs, with BTC increasingly being viewed as a long-term allocation asset rather than a short-term trading tool.

While BTC is seeing inflows, the overall capital efficiency in the crypto market is declining. The inflow scale for 2025 is expected to be below the peak of $377 billion in 2024, with current trends annualizing to about $291 billion. The capital density required to push BTC's market cap higher is far greater than in the past. Calculating that every $1 invested can yield a market cap growth of 2.0 to 2.6 times, maintaining price increases is becoming increasingly reliant on capital support. Therefore, despite BTC continuously receiving strong ETF inflows recently, along with ongoing accumulation of corporate treasury funds, the price remains in a range-bound consolidation.

Strong Participation from Wall Street May Provide Ample Momentum for BTC Price Increase

Data shows that over $100 billion in crypto-related IPOs are currently in preparation. Circle has already gone public, performing far beyond market expectations. Compared to native crypto assets, crypto concept stocks provide institutional investors with a more familiar investment allocation path that also offers "leverage," and the attribute of "technological innovation" makes the narrative more grand.

Entering Historically Strong Performance Months, BTC Price May Challenge $120,000

July is typically a relatively strong month for BTC, with historical data showing seven out of the past ten years have seen increases, averaging a rise of 9.1%. In contrast, the market performance in August and September tends to be weaker due to a decline in market activity and rising macro uncertainty. If this seasonal characteristic continues, BTC prices may experience a surge in the coming weeks, followed by a return to seasonal consolidation.

Currently, the Federal Reserve's stance has turned moderate, and the overall earnings reports from U.S. stocks are positive, combined with a recovery in market sentiment after the "July 4" holiday, all three factors provide temporary external support for BTC prices. However, if overall net inflows do not show a significant rebound, especially lacking drivers from retail investors or new funds, it is possible that this rebound may face resistance at $116,000, with an ideal scenario allowing BTC prices to reach $120,000.

The market's greed and fear index indirectly validates the above assumptions; currently, the "Greed/Fear Index" smooth moving average shows signs of bottoming and is expected to move towards the "greed zone." Therefore, if BTC continues its typical seasonal strength in July, the originally relatively conservative "summer adjustment" may face correction.

Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment should be approached with caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading in digital assets may involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided herein.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。