Recently, BTC has successively broken historical highs, currently reported at $117k. However, it is worth noting that unlike past market trends, this round of increase has not seen leverage driving it, and retail investor sentiment has surprisingly remained calm. As the price refreshes historical highs, we need to acknowledge that BTC is entering the next trading range.

1

Multiple positive catalysts are gradually emerging, laying a solid foundation for an upward trend in the coming months. BTC has broken through a key trend line, releasing a strong technical breakout signal. Since mid-April, BTC spot ETFs have continuously attracted capital inflows. Since the launch in January 2024, BTC ETFs have accumulated $49 billion in inflows, and structural funds have begun to steadily build positions. July is a strong season for BTC, and with the arrival of Washington's "Crypto Policy Week," the market is experiencing a rare resonance of macro and regulatory positives. Against this backdrop, the "GENIUS Act" is accelerating its review process in Congress, expected to have a substantial impact on stablecoin regulation and the popularization of digital assets.

2

The Federal Reserve previously judged that the new round of tariff policies promoted by Trump would bring inflationary pressure. On "Liberation Day" in April, when the relevant policies were officially announced, consumer sentiment became cautious, and short-term inflation expectations rose. However, from the actual data, inflationary pressure has not materialized, remaining overall in a moderate range. The last three CPI data releases have all been at 2.4% or below, close to the Fed's 2% inflation target; and they have been below market expectations for four consecutive periods, significantly alleviating concerns about rising inflation. The recently released CPI data is crucial and worth market attention.

3

The Federal Reserve is facing ongoing pressure from the political level. The minutes from the FOMC meeting on June 17-18 show that Fed officials generally lean towards initiating interest rate cuts, although there are still some internal disagreements. On the day the minutes were released, BTC rose by 2%. The market currently generally expects two interest rate cuts within the year, with the first cut possibly occurring in September. If inflation data next week does not show a significant rebound, Powell will face greater market and political pressure and must provide a clear explanation for his continued hawkish stance.

Summary

This round of BTC's rise is distinctly different from the "retail leverage peak" trends commonly seen at previous highs, with overall leverage usage being limited and funding rates only slightly turning positive. The real driving force comes from the continuous inflow into BTC spot ETFs and corporate allocation demand. Open interest has gently increased with the price, and there has not yet been a significant influx of new leveraged long positions. Despite reaching historical highs, most traders still maintain light positions, and the market is far from entering a crowded phase. Currently, in terms of capital, ETF cumulative net inflows have reached $49 billion; the policy side is shifting towards easing, with CPI expected to remain moderate; and on the regulatory front, the "GENIUS Act" is also expected to achieve substantial breakthroughs next week. Coupled with the seasonal advantages of July, the market is experiencing a rare resonance of multiple positive factors. However, from the perspective of position structure and price trends, the market has not fully priced in the aforementioned positives, and there remains room for further development.

Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment should be approached with caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading in digital assets may involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.

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