Author: Fairy, ChainCatcher

Editor: TB, ChainCatcher

The public sale of Pump.fun is undoubtedly a hot topic in the recent crypto scene.

After three delays, it successfully chose the opportune moment to launch its token when Bitcoin broke new highs. In just 12 minutes, it raised $500 million, achieving a valuation of $4 billion, making it the third largest ICO in history.

Amidst the excitement, doubts have followed closely, and the drama surrounding Pump.fun has been captivating. The upcoming launch will truly unveil the beginning of this tug-of-war.

The Journey of Pump.fun's Token Launch: Chaos, Controversy, and Criticism

The token launch journey of Pump.fun has been marked by chaos, controversy, and criticism from the initial rumors to the public offering.

Its co-founder Alon Cohen has publicly denied multiple times that they would issue a token. In April of this year, he even "debunked" on social media: "Don't expect me, Pump.fun, or any employees to issue a token." Ironically, Alon once stated, "The only benefit of a presale is that the money goes directly into your pocket. Every presale is a scam."

Now, having initiated a presale himself, every word has become a "face-slapping quote."

Source: AB Kuai.Dong

The rhythm of the sale has also been quite dramatic, with three delays, each hitting the emotional pulse. According to crypto KOLs, the first delay occurred on January 25, followed by a drop of over 18% in SOL within the next week; the second delay was on February 15, with SOL subsequently dropping as much as 52%; the third delay fell on June 20, coinciding with an escalation in the Middle East situation.

On July 7, Gate briefly launched the token sale page for Pump.fun before quickly taking it down, sparking a lot of speculation. On July 9, Pump.fun officially announced the public sale. Since then, more waves of controversy have emerged.

With the disclosure of public sale information, market skepticism erupted:

• A valuation of $4 billion has been questioned as the project and market fundamentals cannot support it;
• The public sale prohibits participation from users in the U.S. and the U.K., mocked as an "Asia-customized presale";
• The team's past behavior of continuously selling SOL for cash has led to high skepticism about whether they will "support the market," speculating that the team will use this opportunity to "exit liquidity."

On the day of the sale, chaos reigned. Users who successfully participated through the official website completed their subscriptions smoothly, while most users who tried to buy through CEX were left empty-handed, leading to widespread complaints. Thus, this already controversial PUMP public sale added layers of doubt regarding the technical stability and public relations capabilities of CEX.

Here is the situation of various channels compiled by crypto KOL Yuyue:

Crypto KOL AB Kuai.Dong revealed that multiple sources indicated Pump.fun had backed out of fundraising with exchanges, leading to failures across six of them. Additionally, Pump.fun had previously promised to allocate 15% of the token supply for presale, but the actual amount was quietly cut by 2.5%, with no explanation from the project team.

Pump.fun ICO Performance

In this sale, 89.7% of purchases were made through the official website, while only 10.3% were made through CEX. There were 10,145 successful buyers on the website. Here is the scale of purchases by website buyers:

Source: Dune

The majority of users purchased less than $1,000, totaling 5,758. However, the concentration of funds was extremely high, with the top 340 addresses buying over $300 million, accounting for 60%, with an average investment of about $44,000.

Community user @splinter0n monitored data showing that only 2 people participated in the presale on Kraken, 15 on Gate, and 120 on Kucoin. Although these figures are difficult to fully verify, they reflect the embarrassing situation where almost all users from exchanges were left empty-handed.

Currently, the six CEXs participating in the PUMP public sale have all received token distributions: Kraken received 7.5 billion tokens, Bitget received 7.5 billion, Gate received 6.4 billion, Bybit received 5 billion, MEXC received 5 billion, and Kucoin received 4.1 billion.

Additionally, on-chain analyst Ai Yi pointed out that Wintermute may be one of the market makers for PUMP. Yesterday, the Pump.fun project team transferred 10 PUMP tokens to multiple addresses for small tests, including addresses previously belonging to Wintermute, with expectations of more tokens flowing to market maker addresses in the next couple of days.

In the Lead-Up to the Launch, Market Speculation Intensifies

The Gate page shows that $PUMP will open for trading tonight at 12 o'clock. The pre-market price has reached $0.0062, and the market has entered a highly speculative phase.

Community user @jain_web3 interpreted: Selling out in 12 minutes created a strong sense of scarcity. Last night, many users took short positions for hedging, and as those shorts were squeezed, it benefits high pricing at launch. He further predicts that the next step may be a high opening, with presale users selling at high prices, and many users who missed out buying in at high prices due to scarcity effects and high FOMO, with a dense trading area possibly exceeding $0.004.

Crypto KOL @sky_gpt believes this is a familiar script: "High opening, rapid rise, quick sell-off, and a continuous decline, trapping those who are 'itching to buy' for a second harvest."

On the on-chain prediction platform Polymarket, the question of "What will the FDV of Pump.fun tokens be one day after launch?" has also become a hot betting topic. Most users predict that its FDV will be above $4 billion and below $8 billion, reflecting a high divergence in the market between enthusiasm and risk.

Pump.fun has pushed the contradictions and FOMO emotions of the crypto market to the extreme with a noisy presale. Tonight, all speculations, controversies, and chips will converge, and the market will ultimately reveal the true direction of this competition.

Recommended Reading:

Last-Minute Account Suspension, Is Pump.fun's $1 Billion ICO Dream in Jeopardy?

Raydium and Pump.fun Imitate Each Other, Can There Be a Winner After the "Breakup"?

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