When a person reaches a certain age, they will understand the meaning of "picking flowers in the morning and collecting them in the evening." There aren't that many tomorrows in the world, only the unpredictability of life. Wanting to buy osmanthus flowers while carrying wine is never like the carefree days of youth. What you have pursued your whole life was there from the beginning; we just realized it too late. One cannot simultaneously possess youth and the feeling of youth; some things must disappear to prove their value!

This week's market has been fluctuating without showing a clear trend. Essentially, it has been moving back and forth around a high level, and there's not much to say. In terms of operations, we have analyzed the current fluctuations in previous articles. The range of 116,000-121,000 is still quite reasonable. Personally, I have been holding onto a low-leverage short position from 121,300, so during this period, I have only made some small trades, entering and exiting quickly on a very short-term basis, resulting in slight profits overall. Currently, there isn't a significant pattern in the market; I plan to wait for a pullback breakthrough before exiting my low-leverage short position, as there still seem to be considerable opportunities.

Returning to today's market, from a liquidity perspective, after recent continuous fluctuations, the current liquidity clearing intensity indicates that the lower end should focus more on bullish liquidity. According to liquidity distribution, if it drops to around 115,000, it will likely complete the clearing of short-term bullish positions, while if it rises to around 121,500, it can clear recent bearish liquidity. Currently, the distribution of bullish liquidity at the lower end shows a layered structure, making it more appropriate to clear the lower bullish positions first.

On the technical side, there aren't any particularly noteworthy structural changes. The daily chart shows high-level fluctuations, and the market is beginning to exhibit a certain expectation of a pullback trend. The MA7 line has turned down and pierced the MA14 line, entering the early stage of a death cross, while the MACD has entered a bearish cycle, and the RSI is diverging downwards from a high position. In previous articles, we mentioned that there has always been an expectation of a pullback correction at the daily level, but due to the overarching bullish trend, the pullback has been delayed. Now, after several days of fluctuations, signs of a pullback are beginning to appear. Here, we need to consider what form the pullback will take. If it follows the mildest fluctuation pullback method, then after waiting for the pullback to end, the bullish momentum will likely resume in subsequent market movements, especially as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations are getting closer. Once the rate cut is confirmed, it will likely drive the market to follow a trend. The four-hour trend line is basically flat, providing little reference value. In terms of technical indicators, the MACD is showing a rather chaotic performance, and the RSI is moving downwards, approaching a low area. Considering that there will be another tariff deadline on August 1, the market will likely start to gradually worry about the progress of negotiations over the next two weeks. Therefore, the conclusion is that it is very difficult for the current market to develop a new trend; it will likely maintain high-level fluctuations until August.

Returning to the current market, my approach is to fully engage in the fluctuation market, without any grand strategy—just take profits when they come.

In terms of operations, based on the current movement, I personally prefer to short in the short term, waiting for the lower bullish liquidity to complete its clearing before making long trades. The ideal scenario would be to target the short-term bullish clearing position near 115,000, and short around 118,500 with proper risk management.

Currently, Ethereum's market trend can be seen as an adjustment process following the previous strong rally. In the short term, due to the increasing bullish liquidity below, we can expect a two-phase ABC pullback to clear out short-term bullish positions. This type of pullback is very healthy; the futures positions that drag prices down are often from high-leverage short-term bulls. Even if this wave of the market is driven by spot trading, excessive profits from futures bulls can also become a supply. For Ethereum's subsequent trend, we need to wait and see if it will continue to show independent strength after the adjustment. If Ethereum's trend starts to follow Bitcoin, or even lags behind it, then it will take more time for Ethereum to regain strength. Additionally, SBET is set to vote on July 24 to decide whether to issue an additional 5 billion U to buy Ethereum, which is likely to have a certain impact on Ethereum's short-term market. For the short-term pullback, we should first look at the support around 3,350 to consider entering short positions.

【The above analysis and strategies are for reference only. Please bear the risks yourself. The article is subject to review and publication, and market conditions change in real-time. The information may be outdated, and specific operations should follow real-time strategies. Feel free to contact us for market discussions.】

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