Source: Uweb Live Sharing Class
Content Organized by: Peter_Techub News
The information shared in this article is for reference only and does not constitute any form of investment advice. Investors should conduct independent research and judgment when making investment decisions, and fully consider their financial situation, investment goals, and risk tolerance.
On the evening of July 24, 2025, the 179th session of the Uweb live class focused on the theme "How Should We Play with Coin Stocks?" It centered on the trend of the integration of cryptocurrencies and traditional stock markets, hosted by Uweb President Yu Jianing, with subjective market maker ZTZZ as a guest. The discussion delved into three core areas: the progress of the current market, U.S. companies participating in coin-stock linkage and their risks and allocation strategies, and the old altcoins that are most worth paying attention to in this bull market. This episode combined macroeconomic insights, industry dynamics, and perspectives from market makers to provide investors with systematic insights and practical guidance. Below is a summary of the content shared by host Yu Jianing and guest ZTZZ, covering the core issues and key points of the three major themes.
I. Where is this market cycle headed?
1.1 Is Bitcoin nearing its peak? What is the long-term trend?
Yu Jianing opened with a core question: Bitcoin's price has reached $123,000; is it nearing the peak of this market cycle? What is the potential for further increases? ZTZZ analyzed from the perspective of a market maker, stating that $123,000 is likely not the peak of this cycle, and the long-term bull market trend is clear. He compared Bitcoin to "the housing prices in Pudong," emphasizing its characteristic of continuous growth rather than short-term spikes. Over the past year and a half, Bitcoin's volatility has significantly decreased, with sideways movement replacing sharp declines, indicating that its trend has been "taken over" by U.S. stocks and the Federal Reserve. Continuous buying from large external funds has made Bitcoin resemble a commodity (like gold or oil), possessing long-term upward potential. ZTZZ pointed out that the formation of a peak requires at least a month, and the current market cannot determine whether $123,000 is the top; we need to observe the peak structure over the next month.
1.2 The driving force and sustainability of Ethereum's surge
Yu Jianing further inquired about the reasons behind Ethereum's recent surge and its sustainability. ZTZZ estimated that Ethereum's increase in this cycle is about 70%, not exceeding XRP. He believes that Ethereum's rise is due to the end of a washout after retail investors' despair, with large market makers (like BlackRock) fully positioning themselves and cleaning out the chips of DeFi and L2 project parties. As "the second dragon," Ethereum is suitable for accommodating large funds, similar to how the Federal Reserve speculates on large assets, where the narrative is merely a tool, and the core is chip control and returns. Although the DeFi and L2 ecosystems may continue to be weak, core projects like Uniswap are expected to recover, with price increases decoupled from ecosystem development; market makers are more focused on liquidity than on ecosystem prosperity.
1.3 The market logic of coin-stock linkage
ZTZZ emphasized that the market follows the rule of "large liquidity plundering small liquidity," where wealth in the crypto space comes from small liquidity assets (like inscriptions) quickly accommodating large funds. Bitcoin and Ethereum attract traditional financial "old money" (like funds from listed companies) through RWA and coin-stock narratives, with market makers targeting large players rather than retail investors, making it difficult for retail investors to perceive the sentiment of large funds, leading to challenges in judging market phases. Bitcoin has been globally promoted (like BTC ATMs at gas stations in New Zealand), losing explosive upward momentum, and needs to push prices higher to attract more institutions.
1.4 Ethereum's market maker transition and future trends
In response to questions about Ethereum's long-term downtrend against BTC and the possibility of a market maker transition, ZTZZ stated that since the exchange rate peaked in 2021, Ethereum has undergone sufficient washout. Although the DeFi narrative has collapsed, it has not been disproven. Market makers (like BlackRock) have reduced chip concentration through washouts, paving the way for new funds to enter. The upward momentum comes from large fund positioning rather than speculation; ecosystem development is not core, and prices rely on narratives to carry liquidity. In the future, some DeFi projects (like Uniswap) may recover, while L2 remains weak, and price increases depend on external funds, making it difficult to return to $1,500 unless a significant black swan event occurs. The integration of coin and stock markets injects new momentum into the market, attracting traditional capital and expanding price space.
II. Which U.S. companies are participating in coin-stock linkage? What are the risks? How should we allocate?
2.1 U.S. companies participating in coin-stock linkage and their roles
Yu Jianing inquired about the impact of Ethereum-related U.S. companies (like Starlink and Cheflink) on price trends and their investment nature. ZTZZ listed companies such as Cheflink (holding 360,000 Ethereum, with the sports betting platform PS.net directing traffic to Ethereum), Coinbase (a well-known exchange), Bit Digital (auto mortgage finance, listed on NASDAQ), and Bitwise (Bitcoin mining, receiving top institutional investments). These companies leverage their business advantages to inject liquidity into Ethereum, driving price increases. For example, Cheflink promotes Ethereum through its traffic expertise, attracting new buyers. Large market makers (like BlackRock) conduct in-depth research to push prices higher over the long term; small and medium-sized companies may engage in short-term speculation, raising prices for selling off, similar to marketing in the crypto space. Long-term strategic companies (like Cheflink and Coinbase) maintain stable holdings, akin to MSTR's commitment to Bitcoin, while short-term speculative companies may sell off quickly.
2.2 Risk analysis of coin-stock integration
Yu Jianing expressed concern about the additional risks of coin-stock integration, such as leverage liquidation. ZTZZ pointed out that the essence of coin-stock integration is that U.S. companies leverage crypto assets, launching leveraged products to enhance returns, which carries the following risks:
Leverage liquidation risk: Late entrants may have poor risk-reward ratios and insufficient confidence, which could trigger liquidations when upward momentum is lacking, leading to flash crashes in assets like Ethereum.
Market volatility: Bitcoin's volatility has decreased, similar to gold, which can withstand high leverage (like 100x), but Ethereum's volatility is higher, making leveraged products riskier.
Speculation risk: Some companies may short-term chase trends, similar to "pump and dump" in the crypto space, making it easy for retail investors to get trapped.
2.3 Asset allocation strategies
ZTZZ suggested the following allocation strategies:
Prioritize large market maker products: Invest in Bitcoin and Ethereum-related ETFs and leading companies holding these assets (like MSTR and Coinbase) due to their large scale, strong stability, and lower risk.
Moderate pursuit of high returns: Small funds can pay attention to assets that may be included in ETFs later (like Solana), using small positions to seek high returns, but caution is needed.
Trading discipline: Leverage should be combined with position management (e.g., 10% position with 10x leverage = 100% position), avoiding a gambler's mentality. Those with lower trading skills should improve their techniques.
Top escape strategy: There is no single "top escape indicator," as the success rate of indicators is hard to exceed 51%, and they can easily fail in a volatile market. Escaping the top requires a comprehensive judgment of candlesticks, trend lines, market sentiment, and market maker behavior. For example, if Ethereum falls below $3,200 or XRP falls below $2.82, it may indicate a trend reversal.
2.4 Trends and speculation in coin-stock linkage
ZTZZ noted that coin-stock linkage is a pathway for traditional financial "old money" to enter the crypto market. Early participating companies (like MSTR) have insight and are optimistic about crypto assets in the long run; later companies are often speculative, leveraging the Trump and Wall Street hype to attract liquidity. Retail investors should focus on leading companies and be wary of short-term selling risks. Coin-stock integration may be speculated in the short term, but the long-term trend is clear, with traditional listed companies and family offices gradually recognizing crypto assets, similar to the logic of Meitu's early Bitcoin holdings.
III. Student Exclusive: Interpretation of the Most Recommended Old Altcoins in This Cycle
3.1 The value logic and market mismatch of XRP
Yu Jianing asked why XRP is overlooked in the Chinese crypto space yet surged in this cycle, and what its value logic and market maker strategies are. ZTZZ reviewed:
Focus on narrative: XRP focuses on cross-border payments, with a simple narrative but strong execution. ZTZZ shared his experience with the XRP team in 2019, noting its deep global promotion (like gas stations in New Zealand supporting XRP payments), where quantitative changes lead to qualitative changes.
Compliance advantage: Since 2020, XRP has been responding to U.S. regulatory lawsuits and is one of the earliest compliant crypto projects, expected to attract large funds through ETFs in 2025.
Market mismatch: There is no XRP community discussion in the Chinese crypto space, but it is popular in the U.S. and South Korea (like XRP ads near the New York Stock Exchange), creating a mismatch in odds, which ZTZZ profited from.
Candlestick characteristics: XRP has high control, with a surge after a period of sideways movement (like a more than 10% increase in 2023). It is recommended to buy near $2.82; if it falls below this, the trend turns negative, with a bull market target of $5.
Stablecoin layout: XRP collaborates with U.S. companies to provide global stablecoin services, with extensive channel coverage and strong competitiveness, not fearing market encroachment by banks.
3.2 Opportunities in other old altcoins
ZTZZ analyzed other old altcoins:
XLM (Stellar): Along with XRP, it is an old coin from 2017-2018, with high control and sufficient washout, presenting opportunities but requiring further research.
TRON (TRX): Justin Sun has significant influence, and its high market cap can accommodate funds; it needs a new perspective to see if it has "graduated" to a new track.
WLD (Worldcoin): Strong AI narrative ("everyone has tokens"), but market makers are aggressive in selling, with significant current selling pressure; it is recommended to wait for community promotion before entering, as the risk-reward ratio is not high.
Virtual: The project team is reliable, with ongoing ecosystem development and no direct competitors, which may lead to an explosion in the future, though short-term speculative value is low.
Morpho: A DeFi peer-to-peer lending innovation project, ZTZZ has limited understanding and recommends caution.
Uni (Uniswap): A DeFi leader, with a market cap that can accommodate funds, but weak ecosystem innovation makes significant increases difficult. A wide fluctuation strategy is recommended, with significant selling pressure at $15, needing to break through $19 for strong upward movement.
TRUMP: Negative asset, a short-term speculative opportunity (like crypto dinner tickets) followed by a surge is a shorting opportunity unless there is structural good news (like an ETF), otherwise it is hard to sustain.
AI leaders: True AI leaders have not issued tokens and are supported by top capital; it is recommended to wait.
3.3 Mindset shift and investment logic
ZTZZ emphasized that crypto investors need to shift from a Web3 native mindset to a traditional financial perspective, similar to "college students in the village" entering a new track. The "graduation" logic of old coins like XRP is based on market cap, liquidity, and compliance levels. Retail investors should abandon a restless mindset, filter out myths of getting rich quickly, and adopt a longer-term allocation strategy, holding quality assets in line with the logic of large funds.
Summary and Event Promotion
This live session revealed the market logic and investment opportunities of coin-stock linkage through the in-depth dialogue between Yu Jianing and ZTZZ. The long-term bull market trend for Bitcoin is clear, Ethereum's rise relies on large fund positioning, and the integration of coin and stock markets brings risks like leverage liquidation, necessitating a priority allocation to leading assets and cautious operations. Among old altcoins, XRP stands out for its compliance and global promotion, with a recommendation to pay attention to the $2.82 level; other old coins should be evaluated based on control and ecosystem opportunities. Investors should switch to a traditional financial perspective, understand the logic of large funds, and avoid a restless mindset.
Event Promotion:
Hong Kong Course (August 1 - 4): Focused on RWA, stablecoins, and coin-stock linkage, inviting Conflux co-founders Zhang Yuanjie and Meng Yan to teach RWA ecology and asset allocation, providing Hong Kong account opening and resource connections, with a fee of $4,999, including retraining.
U.S. Study Tour (August 17 - 23): Visits to MicroStrategy, A16Z, Circle, etc., in-depth discussions on Web3 trends, experiencing U.S. market sentiment, and early application for U.S. visas is recommended.
Advice: Add the host's WeChat for event notifications, follow ZTZZ on Twitter for trading insights, and replays can be shared; the live content is for academic discussion, not investment advice.
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