The U.S. political and financial markets are once again focused on the future of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Recently, the sudden resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler has provided President Trump with an opportunity to fill the vacancy at the Federal Reserve earlier than expected, potentially forcing him to finalize his choice for the next chairman months in advance. Kevin Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Council, confirmed that Trump is actively seeking candidates with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Best-selling author Robert Kiyosaki boldly predicted that Trump is following through on his threats, which could lead to the dissolution of the Federal Reserve. This personnel change not only affects the independence of the Federal Reserve but also signals a potential significant shift in U.S. monetary policy, which could have far-reaching impacts on global financial markets.

Adriana Kugler announced her resignation from the Federal Reserve Board on August 1, a move that provides the Trump administration with an opportunity to place its own people within the Federal Reserve.

Early Vacancy: Adriana Kugler's term as a governor was originally set to last until 2028, and her resignation means Trump can appoint a Federal Reserve governor before his chairmanship ends (in May next year).

Chairman Candidate Finalized Early?: Derek Tang, an economist at monetary policy analysis firm LH Meyer, pointed out that although Powell's chairmanship ends in May next year, his governorship lasts until 2028. If Powell does not voluntarily resign from his governor position, Trump will have no opportunity to fill the vacancy before 2028. In this case, Trump may be forced to use his proposed chairman candidate to fill Adriana Kugler's vacancy. Tobin Marcus, head of U.S. policy and political strategy at Wolf Research, noted, "The key is that this is the only vacancy Trump can operate on. If he wants to look for the next chairman from outside the Federal Reserve, the nomination may be revealed early."

White House Actively Seeking Candidates: White House National Economic Council Director Hassett stated that Trump is actively searching for the next Federal Reserve chairman with Treasury Secretary Bessent. Trump himself has also indicated that he will announce a candidate in the coming days to fill the vacant Federal Reserve governor position.

Trump's dissatisfaction with Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has been longstanding, and he has repeatedly pressured him to lower interest rates.

"You’re fired": The author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad" boldly predicted that Trump is following through on his threats, combining current developments in cryptocurrency policy. He expressed his views on X, suggesting that President Trump is committed to transforming the U.S. into a global center for cryptocurrency, which could lead to the dissolution of the Federal Reserve. He wrote, "'You’re fired': When President Trump promises to make America the global capital of cryptocurrency… he is not only following through on his threat to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, but also saying goodbye to the Federal Reserve."

Legal Obstacles to "For Cause" Dismissal: However, no official measures have been implemented to dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Powell or dissolve the central bank. The Federal Reserve Act only allows for the removal of officials "for cause," a standard that does not cover policy disputes and has never been challenged in court.

Robert Kiyosaki's Criticism: Robert Kiyosaki has been outspoken in criticizing the weakness of the dollar and has repeatedly warned of an impending economic collapse. He has suggested investing in Bitcoin, gold, and silver as a means to protect wealth outside the traditional system. His views highlight the potential impact of digital currencies on traditional financial institutions like the Federal Reserve.

Against the backdrop of personnel changes at the Federal Reserve and increasing political pressure, the latest macroeconomic data further strengthens market expectations for interest rate cuts.

Non-Farm Data Far Below Expectations: On August 3, the U.S. added only 73,000 non-farm jobs in July, far below expectations, and the data for May and June was significantly revised down.

Surge in Rate Cut Probability: In response to the above news, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September surged to 80.3% on CME's "FedWatch." Before the non-farm data, this figure was only 41.3%.

Statements from Federal Reserve Officials: Federal Reserve official and Powell ally John C. Williams stated, "The labor market conditions I have observed over the past year can be described as 'moderate and gradual cooling,' but overall it remains robust." Although the unemployment rate in July only slightly rose to 4.2% (from 4.1% in June), the relatively weak non-farm data provides space for Powell to push for a consensus on rate cuts. Williams pointed out that the significant downward revision of employment growth data for May and June is the real focus of this report.

Although the future of the Federal Reserve remains uncertain, the market has begun speculating on Powell's potential successors:

Kevin Warsh: Former Federal Reserve governor, strongly advocates for lowering interest rates and believes tariffs do not lead to inflation. He recently stated, "The central bank has lost credibility; we do not need to maintain the status quo— the Federal Reserve needs systemic reform."

Scott Bessent: Trump's financial advisor, considered a loyal supporter, and is being considered by the president for the position of Federal Reserve chairman.

Kevin Hassett: Serving as the director of the National Economic Council, he has openly criticized the Federal Reserve's reform budget. He proposed a 3 percentage point cut in interest rates, which Trump called "fantastic."

Christopher Waller: Current Federal Reserve governor, a low-profile candidate with both independence and academic credentials. He has called for the Federal Reserve to cut rates at the next meeting.

The personnel changes at the Federal Reserve, particularly Kugler's resignation, provide the Trump administration with an opportunity to intervene in Federal Reserve monetary policy early. The weakness of the non-farm data further strengthens market expectations for a rate cut in September. Robert Kiyosaki's bold prediction, while still seeming exaggerated at present, also reflects the growing influence of cryptocurrency and its potential to reshape the global financial landscape. Regardless of Powell's fate, the future direction of U.S. monetary policy will profoundly impact the global economy and financial markets, and investors need to closely monitor this series of personnel changes and macroeconomic data.

Related: Democrats Pressure Banking Regulators, Question Trump's Conflicts of Interest in Stablecoins

Original: “Federal Reserve Faces Leadership Shake-Up as Trump Begins Search for Powell’s Replacement!”

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