Fundamentals:
U.S. Trade Representative Tai revealed that the current tariff policy is basically formed, imposing tariffs of 35% on Canada, 50% on Brazil, 25% on India, and 39% on Switzerland, with trade frictions continuing.
The market's expectation probability for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has reached 89.1%. In the context of "clear rate cut expectations + controlled inflation," assets like BTC and ETH have performed prominently as liquidity-sensitive targets. Currently, the decline in U.S. Treasury yields has increased the attractiveness of non-interest-bearing assets, making it easier for ETFs to attract capital inflows. Today, the Fear and Greed Index rose to 64, with investor sentiment shifting from "neutral" to "greedy."
Technical Analysis:
BTC: The weekly chart broke below the two-week low of 116K, closing with a large bearish candle, halting the decline at the MA7 moving average, and rebounding on the expectation of a rate cut. On the daily chart, the MA7/14/30 moving averages have formed a death cross and are trending downwards. Although there was some recovery over the weekend, it has not stabilized in the short term, and the rebound pressure remains significant. The MA90 moving average is around 109K, which is the starting platform of the previous market trend and serves as key support. In terms of trading volume, although yesterday's rebound was considerable, the volume was limited, indicating insufficient bullish confidence and doubts about sustainability. If the rate cut expectations continue to ferment and liquidity improves, there is hope for a volume breakout above 116K, opening up upward space. The 4-hour chart shows a continued rebound, but the volume remains low, and the price is currently facing resistance in the 115K area. In terms of operations, pay attention to the 115-116K resistance zone, with support seen in the 112.5-113.5K range.
ETH: The weekly chart saw a high and then a drop, closing with a large bearish candle of nearly 10%, indicating that there is still room for adjustment, with support concentrated in the 3200-3000 range. The daily chart shows three consecutive bearish candles, and the MA30 support at 3400 points mentioned last week has been reached, marking the first key target. Currently, the MA7/14 moving averages have formed a death cross and are diverging. Although there are signs of a rebound, the volume is weak, limiting the potential for further increases. Future movements require BTC to rise above 116K in conjunction with an overall improvement in sentiment. If ETH can effectively break above and stabilize at 3600 points, there is a chance to test the 3700 level again. The overall trend still needs to wait for the confirmation of a bull market after the Federal Reserve's rate cut in September. The 4-hour candlestick chart shows a strong rebound with significant bullish momentum, and there is still continuation potential in the Asian session. In terms of operations, look for resistance in the 3600-3640 range above and support in the 3480-3510 range below.
Altcoin Sector:
In this round of correction, most altcoin prices have approached the early July lows, retracing previous gains. At any stage, one should avoid entering due to FOMO; coins that have not experienced long-term downward adjustments tend to have short-term rebounds as their main movement. When the market truly starts, mainstream coins lead, while altcoins generally lag behind and rely on the rotation of hot topics. In the face of such market structure, a "rolling penetration rotation strategy" can be an effective response method, with strong practicality. In the second half of the year, attention should be paid to two types of paths: first, projects with actual narrative support, such as real implementations in the RWA sector and clear expectations for Coinbase's launch; second, projects with concentrated on-chain funds, such as layer two network tokens with rapidly growing TVL within the L2 ecosystem.
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