As cryptocurrency rises with the wind, risks accompany it: A comprehensive review of Trump's first six months in office.

CN
5 hours ago

During the 2024 U.S. presidential election, Trump significantly changed his attitude towards cryptocurrencies and actively catered to the crypto community. In May of that year, he became the first major party candidate to accept cryptocurrency donations, and his team established a Coinbase payment channel, allowing supporters to donate using digital assets such as Bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH), USDC, and Ripple (XRP).

According to disclosures from the Federal Election Commission for the second quarter of 2024, the political action committee supporting Trump's campaign, the Trump 47 Committee, raised approximately $3 million through crypto assets during that quarter. Of this, about $2 million came from 19 individual donors in the cryptocurrency field. Tyler Winklevoss and Cameron Winklevoss, founders of the well-known crypto exchange Gemini, each donated Bitcoin worth approximately $1 million at the time; Jesse Powell, co-founder of the prominent cryptocurrency trading platform Kraken, donated Ethereum worth about $845,000; additionally, Stuart Alderoty, the legal director of Ripple, contributed Ripple (XRP) valued at around $300,000. Furthermore, the former CEO of the well-known crypto data analysis company Messari also made a donation to the committee in the form of USDC stablecoin. At the Nashville Bitcoin Conference in July of last year, Trump also raised as much as $21 million through a private fundraising event.

The total amount of donations from the entire crypto industry reportedly reached tens of millions or even hundreds of millions, becoming the largest segment of corporate donations in 2024, accounting for about half of the total. However, the saying "one who takes a hand is soft, one who eats a mouth is tender" suggests that such a massive influx of cryptocurrency funds undoubtedly increased the pressure on Trump's campaign team to make commitments regarding crypto policy.

In terms of policy stance, Trump frequently emphasized during his campaign that he would "end the Biden administration's crackdown on the crypto industry," promising to promote the U.S. as a global leader in cryptocurrency. He declared his support for dollar-pegged stablecoins, opposed government-issued central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), and promised to protect self-custody wallet users from regulatory intervention. Additionally, he openly stated at last year's Bitcoin conference: "I want Bitcoin to be mined, minted, and manufactured in the U.S.," and indicated that if elected, he would nominate crypto-friendly officials to regulate the market.

These clear commitments shaped his campaign image of "market freedom and anti-regulation," making the core voters of the crypto industry an important part of his political base.

After Trump was re-elected as President of the United States, he began to gradually implement his campaign promises. First, the Trump administration reassessed and adjusted some of the measures that strengthened crypto regulation during the Biden era.

For example, in March of this year, the SEC announced a delay in the implementation of regulatory rules for certain stablecoin issuances, providing more flexibility for the market, which responded positively, leading to price increases for some digital assets.

Due to the Trump administration encouraging miners to develop within the U.S., in April, the Department of Energy issued new guidelines encouraging the use of renewable energy for Bitcoin mining, supporting the establishment of mining operations across various states. By June, publicly listed Bitcoin miners in the U.S. quickly reached a historic high, accounting for about 31.5% of the global network's hash rate.

In terms of regulatory personnel, Trump appointed Republican Commissioner Mark Uyeda as the acting chairman of the SEC in January of this year. Subsequently, Trump nominated Paul S. Atkins, a long-time advocate for loose regulation, to officially serve as SEC chairman. At the same time, the White House established the "Office of Digital Assets and AI Affairs," led by well-known venture capitalist David Sacks, to coordinate crypto policy and legislative efforts. Under the new chairman's leadership, the SEC quickly formed a "Special Working Group on Crypto Assets," headed by Hester Peirce, nicknamed "Crypto Mom."

As the saying goes, "No profit, no early rise," Trump's support for the crypto industry may not be purely based on policy positions, as his family has been deeply involved in this field in recent years, with a high degree of interest entanglement.

For instance, the personal tokens launched by him and his wife—TRUMP Coin and MELANIA Coin—were initially seen as political jokes, but after their launch, they experienced a surge in value and even appeared on multiple decentralized exchanges, becoming popular investment targets in the small-cap market. Additionally, he tacitly approved the expansion of the World Liberty Financial platform during his term, which has connections to several of Trump's former aides and confidants.

His eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., has also attended numerous Web3 and NFT-related events and participated in early investments in several blockchain projects through his personal fund.

In addition to fulfilling campaign promises, after taking office, Trump frequently called for the Federal Reserve to "quickly lower interest rates" through social media and public speeches, and took substantive actions to influence Fed personnel, attempting to reshape its monetary policy stance.

Last month, after the Federal Reserve maintained high interest rates for the fifth consecutive time, Trump publicly criticized Powell as a "stubborn moron" and called for the Fed board to "take control of the central bank." Shortly thereafter, the sudden resignation of board member Adriana Kugler created an opportunity for Trump to fill a significant vacancy at the Federal Reserve.

While such systematic intervention may prompt the Fed to shift to a looser policy more quickly, thereby benefiting the crypto market in the short term, it has also raised widespread concerns: if the Fed's independence is compromised, market confidence in its policy credibility and expectation management capabilities may weaken, leading to increased volatility in the dollar and disorder in the financial environment, which could pose long-term uncertainty risks for digital assets, including Bitcoin.

In just six months, the Trump administration rapidly fulfilled its crypto campaign promises, from reshaping the SEC's regulatory team and encouraging domestic Bitcoin mining to signing bills supporting innovation, demonstrating rare policy execution capability. The crypto industry once welcomed optimistic expectations, with capital and confidence flowing back in. However, as Trump began to frequently intervene in the Fed's personnel and policy direction, the market also started to feel the unease behind the "policy dividends."

Trump's "crypto vision" is advancing, but this transaction between industry and power also comes with more complex political costs and financial risks.

Related: Legal Interpretation: The White House's New Cryptocurrency Regulations Clarify the Regulatory Boundaries Between the SEC and CFTC

Original: “Crypto Surges, Risks Loom: A Six-Month Overview of Trump’s Presidency”

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