Written by: Bitrace
The Hong Kong "Stablecoin Regulation" (hereinafter referred to as the Regulation) officially came into effect on August 1, 2025. This regulation establishes strict rules for the issuance and operation of stablecoins, explicitly prohibiting the offering, promotion, and sale of stablecoins without a license, and does not provide a transition period.
As an institution primarily engaged in the exchange of stablecoins and fiat currencies, local cryptocurrency exchange shops in Hong Kong are the first to be affected. After the regulation came into effect, several over-the-counter (OTC) trading service providers announced the suspension of their stablecoin-related businesses while awaiting license applications.
This article aims to provide regulatory authorities with an on-chain perspective on the impact of the regulation by disclosing the TRC20-USDT outflow data from Hong Kong OTC service providers (HKVAOTC) over the past 70 days.
Data Description
Bitrace has long monitored the business address traffic of VAOTC entities located in Hong Kong or primarily serving Hong Kong customers. These entities belong to either store-type service providers that mainly serve offline or real-name customers, or non-store-type service providers that primarily serve online or anonymous customers.
The data disclosed in this investigation will encompass the TRC20-USDT outflow data from all service providers during two time periods: from June 1 to July 31, 2025, and from August 1 to August 8, 2025.
All data has excluded non-operational transfer activities between business addresses.
OTC Market Stablecoin Trading Volume Decreased by 32.94%
Between June 1 and July 31, the total outflow from all business addresses was 3.17 billion USDT, averaging 52.04 million USDT per day; from August 1 to August 8, the total outflow was 279 million USDT, averaging 34.90 million USDT per day.
Compared to before the regulation came into effect, the overall scale of the stablecoin exchange market decreased by 32.94% after August 1, indicating the profound impact of the regulation on Hong Kong's local crypto industry.
Store-Type Service Providers Experienced Greater Scale Reduction
Traffic statistics were conducted separately for store-type and non-store-type service providers.
After the regulation came into effect, the daily USDT outflow scale from store-type service providers decreased by 43.20% (from 9.47 million to 5.38 million), while the outflow from non-store-type service providers decreased by 30.65% (from 42.57 million to 29.52 million).
The impact on store-type service providers is significantly greater than that on non-store-type providers, indicating that after the regulation came into effect, some businesses in Hong Kong's OTC trading service industry have shown a trend of moving underground in a short period.
In Conclusion
The introduction of the "Stablecoin Regulation" marks an important progress in compliance for Hong Kong's crypto industry, having a significant short-term impact on the local OTC trading service industry. Among the relevant practitioners, some choose to comply and apply for licenses, while others turn to underground operations, reflecting a differentiated response.
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