Ethereum recently surged to over $4,700, primarily driven by market expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. Crypto analysts warn that if these expectations fall short, it could lead to disastrous consequences.
Swyftx Chief Analyst Pav Hundal stated in an interview with Cointelegraph on Thursday, "The main issue right now is that the entire market's movement is based on the assumption that the Federal Reserve will cut rates next month." According to CoinMarketCap data, Ethereum (ETH) is currently only 2.80% below its historical high from 2021.
According to the CME Watch Tool, market participants expect a 95.8% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September.
Hundal added, "It now seems that we are pricing the market entirely based on ideal expectations, and we need to remain vigilant at this time." He noted that there has been a continuous inflow of funds into Ethereum ETFs recently, with funding rates stabilizing.
On Monday, the net inflow for spot Ethereum ETFs reached a historical high of $1.01 billion in a single day. Over the past seven days, the price of Ethereum has risen by 30%.
Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments and REF, told Cointelegraph that he holds a highly bullish view on Ethereum and expects its price to rise, but he agrees that unexpected actions from the Federal Reserve could have an impact:
Edwards explained that this could "lead to liquidity being spooked, capital being frozen, and the flow of funds stopping."
While Edwards does not "rule out any possibilities," he stated that as long as institutional demand exceeds the supply of Bitcoin (BTC) and ETH, he remains bullish. "To be honest, the price can only go in one direction," he said.
"I am open to all outcomes, but right now, I see it going higher," Edwards said.
Edwards indicated that if Bitcoin rises to $150,000 to $200,000, Ethereum could "easily double."
"It can definitely appreciate significantly, especially in the context of strong fundamentals," he said.
Although market participants expect a rate cut in September, not all economists believe this is a foregone conclusion.
On Wednesday, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management's Chief Economic Strategist Ellen Zentner stated, "The biggest concern right now is whether Federal Reserve officials will oppose market expectations."
"If they think the market is wrong, they will come out because they have a responsibility to temper the market," she said.
Meanwhile, Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Jeff Schmid believes the current interest rate level is appropriate.
"Given that the economy is still showing momentum, business optimism is growing, and inflation remains above our target, maintaining a moderately tight monetary policy stance is still appropriate at this time," Schmid said.
The July U.S. CPI data released on Wednesday showed that inflation year-on-year was 2.7%, unchanged from June and below the expected 2.8%.
Related: Fundstrat: Ethereum (ETH) will become the "best macro trading asset" in the next 10-15 years.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
