Morgan Stanley expects a hawkish Powell at the Jackson Hole annual meeting

Interpretation: Morgan Stanley believes that Powell will maintain a hawkish tone at Jackson Hole, aiming to avoid being locked into the market's 23bp rate cut expectations and to preserve policy options for September.

If Powell is already inclined to cut rates, he can simply avoid making a statement; however, if he does not cut rates, it would be understood by the market as equivalent to a rate hike. The Federal Reserve typically surprises with unexpected rate cuts rather than confirming them in advance.

It is expected that Powell's speaking style will continue from July, focusing on data and not making proactive commitments. If employment continues to weaken in August, the probability of a rate cut in September will continue to rise. If employment is strong and inflation rebounds, he may choose to remain cautious.

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