In fact, sometimes we are rather uninteresting people. Often, we find ourselves alone, gazing at mountains and waters, waiting for the wind to rise. Standing before these scenes, it feels as if we have a certain tacit understanding with them, yet we can never truly get close. Others say we are reclusive, but I feel I have merely grown accustomed to silence. Over time, even loneliness has become the norm, so I find solace in the mountains and waters.

Upon returning, the first market analysis accurately predicted the short-term trend of the market. Yesterday, after the first round of downward movement, the market experienced a fluctuating bottom rebound, with the highest point reaching close to 117,000. This aligns well with the short-term bearish liquidity we mentioned yesterday. This position gathered the most short liquidity with high leverage in the short term, and during the rebound process, it was liquidated. The short position we selected to enter was above 116,500, which was also a suitable position. Then, starting this morning, the market once again dipped, reaching a low of around 114,350, which was just a bit shy of our expected short position below 114,000. It's a bit of a pity, but overall, in the new week, our short positions still yielded good returns, marking a good start.

Returning to today's market, we first look at liquidity. After yesterday's fluctuations, the situation regarding short liquidity in the short term has changed. After the short liquidity around 117,000 was liquidated, there is now more bullish liquidity below, primarily concentrated below 114,000. The newly gathered short liquidity is around 117,500-118,000, and the volume is not large. In the upcoming fluctuations, it should accumulate again. Regarding long-term liquidity, the distribution of futures liquidity over the past year shows that the accumulation of short liquidity above keeps the price of 130,000 still hopeful, while the long-term bullish liquidity below indicates that any major pullback will head towards 83,000. So, in terms of long-term liquidity, will it go up first or down?

On the technical side, there are no significant changes at the daily level. The price is under pressure from the moving averages and is still in a high-level correction structure. The current important support at the daily level is at the MA120 line, around 108,500, which is also known as the key line of the major trend. In terms of technical indicators, MACD is operating in a bearish cycle, and there are no signs of a bottoming out yet. RSI is running at a low level, still a bit away from being oversold at the daily level. Based on the daily operation, it would be more in line with the market structure to wait for another dip to fully enter the oversold territory before making indicator corrections.

At the four-hour level, after yesterday's dip, the four-hour chart has entered a bearish cycle. The market has seen a fluctuating rebound, but since it did not form a strong rebound, the structure remains unchanged. After reaching the low point yesterday, there is an expectation of a bottom divergence from the cyclical structure. Today's further decline and the appearance of a new low are still within the bearish cycle, and the expectation of bottom divergence remains. Additionally, RSI is very close to the oversold position. Therefore, at the four-hour level, the most ideal scenario we hope to see is for the market to fall below 114,000. This would complete the liquidation of short-term bullish liquidity and align with the formation of the bottom divergence structure, followed by another rebound to repair the market indicators and then brew a new trend.

In terms of operations, our current operational thinking is quite similar to yesterday. The short position held above 116,500 can still follow the old rule of reducing positions and moving the stop-loss down to secure profits. If the market approaches around 113,700, we can participate in a short-term long position. If we follow the most ideal scenario we expect, after completing the bottoming and rebounding, there will be some fluctuations, and then if we short again, we will see how liquidity accumulates before proceeding with operations.

【The above analysis and strategies are for reference only. Please bear the risks yourself. The article is subject to review and publication, and market changes in real-time may lead to information lag, making strategies not timely. Specific operations should be based on real-time strategies. Feel free to contact us for market discussions.】

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