Sometimes the heart is like a house, needing regular cleaning. Wash what needs to be washed, throw away what needs to be thrown, and then fill it with the life you love. Life will become brighter. Live well, love your family well, love yourself well, lower your expectations, reduce your dependencies, and we will live better! Friends, we will eventually reach the shore!
The market is still somewhat unexpected. According to our anticipated trend, we hoped the market would stop falling after touching below 114,000 and then start to fluctuate. However, yesterday the market actually experienced a deeper pullback, reaching a low of around 112,600. Initially, we expected to see a low point after probing the bottom, followed by a short-term need for fluctuation to correct. Currently, it seems the low point is stronger, but there is still a demand for fluctuation correction. In terms of operations, it hasn't been perfect; although the short position above 116,500 perfectly hit the target profit position, the short-term long position at 113,700 was just hit at the stop-loss position, and now it has returned to the cost position, which is a bit regrettable.
Returning to today's market, we still need to look at the distribution of liquidity. After another wave of pullback yesterday, there has been a significant change in liquidity. Both short-term long and short liquidity have increased substantially. Notably, a considerable amount of high-leverage short liquidity has appeared above, mainly concentrated in the 114,500-115,000 range. This part of the chasing short liquidity has a large holding quantity, while similarly, a large amount of short-term long liquidity is located around 112,000 below. It is important to note that just below the short-term long liquidation price is the liquidation zone for longs since August 5. If the price continues to pull back today and enters the previous dense area of longs, it will trigger a new liquidation market, targeting 110,000. If we follow the general market liquidation, the most likely trend would be a rebound to liquidate the high-leverage shorts before completing the continuous liquidation of the longs below. If the short-term longs are liquidated first without entering the continuous liquidation zone, the subsequent market is more likely to show a rebound followed by a fluctuating run.
On the technical side, the daily level still operates the same as yesterday's structure, with the coin price being suppressed by the moving averages. The moving averages have formed a death cross, and according to the daily rhythm, it seems we are getting closer to the trend support line of the MA120 line. The technical indicators also show that MACD is in a bearish cycle, and RSI has turned from a low position. Combining this with the liquidity situation, a rebound followed by another downward adjustment would be quite good. For the longs, the current task is to hold above 113,000 and not let the price enter a lower liquidation zone; this is the only task. This way, it can maintain an effective illusion of horizontal support, which can support the price to meet the demand for a rebound this week and delay the time for the weekly top divergence.
On the four-hour level, the structure clearly shows a downward trend. The continuous dips have given us four-hour lows, and the expectation of a bottom divergence still exists, with continuous lows appearing in the MACD bearish cycle. Therefore, yesterday we predicted that the market would stop falling and rebound below 114,000, but the actual situation did not unfold this way. Considering the overall market view, we need to see if this rebound can come and provide us with a suitable position.
In terms of operations, we will first wait for a rebound to the 114,500-115,000 position to execute short positions. If the market drops first to around 112,000 to liquidate the short-term liquidity below, we will then operate with short-term longs and wait for a rebound before taking short positions again.
【The above analysis and strategy are for reference only. Please bear the risk yourself. The article is subject to review and publication, and the market changes in real-time. The information may be delayed, and strategies may not be timely. Specific operations should follow real-time strategies. Feel free to contact us for market discussions.】
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