Time does not compare to thoughts; in the blink of an eye, another autumn has passed. In the world of adults, loneliness is a common occurrence. Don't always think about sharing your inner thoughts with others, as no one can truly understand our feelings. When emotions arise, go watch a free sunset, feel the comfortable evening breeze, and don't let yourself get trapped in bad emotions. Pleasing yourself is a way to love life.

Currently, the market for Bitcoin seems to have been in a weak trend for some time. Yesterday's movement was just as expected; there was a slight rebound during the day, followed by another drop, ultimately completing a liquidation process for the short-term bulls below 112500 that we mentioned. This is a typical weak market trend, gradually liquidating the liquidity of the bulls below. In terms of operations, our previous short positions in the 114500-11500 area have perfectly reached the profit-taking zone, successfully capturing the profits from this pullback. Throughout this week, it seems that our short positions from the highs have ultimately been profitable, while a short-term bet on a rebound did not succeed. We specifically mentioned yesterday that according to liquidity liquidation, we should be able to choose to enter short positions below 112500. However, considering the proximity to the cycle low, and in a weak market, continuously refreshing the lows can easily trigger successive liquidations. Therefore, we only attempted aggressive long positions, but currently, we have not seen any significant rebound, and there are no major changes.

Returning to today's market, we still need to observe the distribution of liquidity. Under the weak oscillation, the bulls are indeed unwilling to give up. From the current distribution of long and short positions, the bulls have formed a strong short-term high liquidity liquidation intensity near 111000, creating a relatively dense accumulation zone. Meanwhile, there is also a high liquidity accumulation of short positions above 114300, forming a standoff position between the bulls and bears in the short term. However, based on previous liquidity conditions, it is clear that the liquidity of the bulls below is stronger. Therefore, in terms of market expectations, optimistically, we might see another spike to a new low to liquidate the bulls below. Pessimistically, we may continue to maintain this oscillating downward trend, constantly providing opportunities for the bulls to enter, followed by a continuous decline for liquidation, similar to the trends of the past few days.

From a technical perspective, it is Friday again. In the following days of this week, it seems increasingly difficult to see a significant upward movement, which also brings the formation of a second top divergence structure on the weekly chart closer. According to the current trend, it should take another 1-2 weeks for confirmation, and regarding the strength of the larger cycle, there is still some time left. A technical bear market is not scary, as long as macro liquidity does not backstab the market. Currently, it seems that the only thing that could lead to a bear market is a major recession. On the daily level, due to the current market being in a weak oscillating downward trend, the daily chart still shows a continuation of a weak market structure, not much different from the previous days, still operating within a bearish cycle, so there is nothing particularly noteworthy.

On the four-hour level, we are once again experiencing a bottom-testing oscillation rebound. It is similar to previous movements; after testing the bottom, the rebound strength is quite weak. Moreover, it can be seen that on the four-hour cycle, the lows are continuously refreshing, while the rebound highs are gradually decreasing, which is a very typical weak downward trend structure. Until a strong upward movement appears on the four-hour chart to completely break this weak structure, the mindset should remain bearish. Technically, there are still indicators worth paying attention to. The MACD shows a continuous bottom divergence structure, and according to this logic, we can consider long positions after a dip, as this rebound is worth a short-term bet from an operational perspective.

In terms of operations, the main idea remains bearish, but short-term can be combined with bottom-testing rebounds to bet on longs. Currently, the market is still in a rebound phase. If the rebound can reach around 114500, we can consider shorting again. On the downside, if a spike to the bottom is completed, then below 110700 would be more suitable for long positions. There may not be an update over the weekend, so for any questions regarding the market, please contact us directly. If there are any new developments in the market, I may also issue a notification.

【The above analysis and strategies are for reference only. Please bear the risks yourself. The article is subject to review and publication, and real-time changes in the market may lead to delays in information, making strategies not timely. Specific operations should be based on real-time strategies. Feel free to contact us for market discussions.】

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