Current market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September have significantly increased, but this decision is not without suspense.

According to a report from Caixin on August 13, data from CME's "FedWatch" indicated that at that time, the market's expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September had risen to 93.4%. After Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Symposium on August 22, this expectation was further reinforced—CME FedWatch tools showed that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September surged from about 75% before the speech to 91.3%.

In his speech, Powell mentioned that although the U.S. economy continues to show resilience amid high tariffs and tightening immigration policies, there are clear signs of a slowdown in the labor market and economic growth. The rising risks in the job market may prompt the Federal Reserve to take action on rate cuts in September. The macro research team at Cathay Pacific Securities published an analysis on August 24, stating that Powell's remarks sent a clear "dovish" signal, indicating a high likelihood of a rate cut in September. However, due to a preventive regulatory tone and inflation factors, the pace of rate cuts is not expected to be too rapid, with a maximum of two rate cuts anticipated within the year.

However, some Federal Reserve officials remain cautious about a rate cut in September. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester clearly stated on August 22 that current inflation levels are still relatively high and have been on the rise over the past year. If a monetary policy meeting were held now, she believes there would be no justification for a rate cut. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic also pointed out that given the profound structural changes the economy is undergoing, there remains significant uncertainty regarding whether a rate cut will be implemented this year.

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