"Bitcoin's volatility has dropped to a historic low, making it more attractive than gold in the eyes of institutional investors," JPMorgan bluntly pointed out in its latest research report, clearly stating that Bitcoin is significantly undervalued relative to gold.
According to JPMorgan's analysis, Bitcoin's six-month rolling volatility has plummeted from nearly 60% at the beginning of the year to about 30%, marking a historic low. Meanwhile, the volatility ratio between Bitcoin and gold has also fallen to an all-time low, with Bitcoin now only twice the volatility of gold.
Sudden Drop in Volatility, Ongoing Value Reassessment
Volatility has long been a major barrier preventing traditional institutional investors from fully embracing Bitcoin. This barrier is now rapidly disappearing. JPMorgan's analyst team elaborated on this shift in their latest report.
The significant decline in Bitcoin's volatility is not just a change in a technical indicator; it also represents a notable increase in market maturity. The report indicates that the drop in volatility directly reflects a shift in the Bitcoin investor base—from a predominance of retail investors to a dominance of institutional investors.
This shift is similar to the effect of central bank quantitative easing on bond volatility. Corporate treasuries are playing a role akin to a "Bitcoin central bank," continuously buying and holding, which reduces the circulating supply in the market and thus lowers price volatility.
JPMorgan employed a volatility-adjusted model to conduct a detailed comparison between Bitcoin and gold. The analysis shows that Bitcoin's market capitalization needs to rise by 13% to match the $5 trillion value of gold in the private investment space, resulting in a fair value for Bitcoin of approximately $126,000, indicating significant upside potential compared to the current price.
ETF Battle: An Unprecedented Capital Migration
If the decline in volatility is an intrinsic sign of Bitcoin's maturity, then the approval and issuance of spot Bitcoin ETFs serve as external catalysts accelerating institutional adoption. This milestone event has opened unprecedented investment channels for both retail and institutional investors, directly triggering a competition in "Assets Under Management (AUM)" between Bitcoin and gold.
Latest data from Bespoke Investment Group shows that the AUM of Bitcoin funds has reached approximately $150 billion, while the AUM of gold funds stands at about $180 billion. The gap between the two has narrowed to just $30 billion, demonstrating an astonishing pace of catch-up.
From the perspective of specific funds, the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), holds about $104.16 billion in assets, while the leading Bitcoin ETFs (such as BlackRock's IBIT) have accumulated approximately $82.68 billion in just one year. This not only reflects a shift in investment preferences but also confirms the increasing importance of Bitcoin as part of global asset allocation.
JPMorgan analysts believe, "Bitcoin is becoming increasingly attractive, especially for institutional portfolios. The decline in volatility, coupled with improved regulatory clarity, has created a perfect environment for adoption."
Technical Outlook
After JPMorgan released its report, Bitcoin's price experienced a slight rebound but then fell back. According to TradingView data, as of the time of this article's publication, Bitcoin rose by 2.3% on the day to about $113,479, before retreating approximately 1% to around $112,272.
Veteran trader Peter Brandt believes that despite Bitcoin's recent rebound, to completely shake off the mid-term bearish sentiment, the price must break through the key resistance level of $117,570.
However, from a longer-term perspective, multiple technical indicators still point to bullishness. Bitcoin's ability to hold above $110,000 indicates that institutional investors are steadily building positions with each dip, which is accumulating momentum for a potential upward trend in the coming months.
The $126,000 target proposed by JPMorgan may just be a new starting point. If Bitcoin continues to attract institutional funds at the current pace, the narrative of "digital gold" surpassing traditional gold may no longer be a theoretical projection but gradually become a reality.
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