Content Organization: Peter_Techub News
The 20th issue of "Trading Star Tuesday" is co-hosted by Techub News, Wind, Uweb, and Chain Intelligence, offering a feast of ideas for digital asset enthusiasts. The host, digital asset expert Qie Ge, opened with his usual enthusiasm. Despite occasional server instability, the participation of guests and listeners remained high. This episode invited Coral, the ambassador for Citrea's Chinese region, A God, co-founder of RITD Lab, and listener Da Yong, to engage in deep dialogue around the launch of the Trump family fund WLFI, combining market trends and project analysis. The program not only reviewed the WLFI craze but also discussed the cryptocurrency bull market phase and future trends, providing listeners with a wealth of information. Below is a comprehensive summary of the highlights from this episode.
A God: Short-term Bullish, October Correction Imminent
A God, drawing on his experience from entering the market in 2017, analyzed that the current market is in the mid-bull phase, with a target price for BTC at $165,000, potentially reaching a peak of $250,000, and Ethereum's peak target at $11,500. In the short term, the interest rate cut expected on September 18 supports the market, with BTC's short-term holder cost price at $109,000 forming a key support level. If it breaks through $113,000 next week, the market is expected to surge for 10 days after the rate cut, suggesting taking profits before the end of September. However, the monthly top divergence signal indicates a possible correction lasting over two months starting in October, with BTC potentially dropping 20% to $100,000 and Ethereum correcting 25%-30% to around $3,290. A God pointed out that on-chain data shows a net outflow of 13 million Ethereum over the past two years, while BTC shows no significant selling signs. The interest rate cut cycle and the development of stablecoins are favorable for the industry, and a BTC market cap share dropping below 45% may signal the end of the bull market. He emphasized the importance of monitoring key levels and liquidity changes to rationally seize short-term opportunities.
Coral: Market Decline, WLFI Craze Hard to Make Quick Money
Coral, reflecting on her experiences at the Bitcoin Asia conference in Hong Kong, pointed out the market's low sentiment, with BTC, Ethereum, and altcoins continuing to decline, and liquidity being diverted to new projects like WLFI, with high expectations failing to deliver returns. She mentioned that some investors are trying to earn fees by pooling on Uniswap and Solana, but only early participants are profiting, while many retail investors are losing. Coral believes the WLFI craze has not become a hot topic this year, and the overall market is pessimistic, advising cautious operations. She looks forward to more on-chain applications driving the development of the BTC ecosystem, emphasizing that in the long term, the industry has potential due to the increase in stablecoins and BTC reserves, but short-term risks from altcoins should be heeded. Coral urged investors to conduct in-depth research on project fundamentals to avoid blindly chasing trends.
A God: Meme Track is Dead, WLFI Overvaluation Hard to Play
Regarding the Meme coins (Trump, Melania), USD1 stablecoin, and WLFI launched by the Trump family, A God believes the Meme track is "dead." He pointed out that institutions and large holders are avoiding such projects, making it difficult to see blockbuster projects with market caps in the tens of billions in the future, and returns are unreliable. WLFI's opening market cap exceeded $30 billion, far surpassing last year's surprise effect of Trump coin jumping from $30 million to $60 billion. Due to the "fear of the well rope" mentality, the market dropped immediately after opening, making it hard to operate. A God maintains a conservative stance, stating that it is difficult to profit from WLFI, shifting focus to targets favored by institutions. He analyzed that last year's Trump coin craze was driven by novelty, but now the market is mature, making it hard for similar projects to replicate success.
Coral: Trump's Credibility Exhausted, RWA Potential to be Unlocked
Coral bluntly stated that the Trump family's actions in Web3 (such as Trump coin, USD1, WLFI) are exhausting their credibility, with projects lacking rigor (such as circulation volume blunders), giving the impression of "cutting when possible," leading to a "de-mystification" effect: the celebrity or presidential identity is no longer important. She lamented that Eric Trump's speech at the Bitcoin Asia conference sounded like "pyramid scheme pitches," and the Web3 circle resembles a "shoddy troupe." Nevertheless, she is optimistic about the RWA stablecoin track due to its involvement in national currency discourse, but there are many existing issues: data comes from Web2, trust is not resolved using blockchain, and there are opaque operations, only optimizing circulation. Coral believes that RWA's potential requires support from technological innovation, and investors need to be cautious with such projects.
A God: Mid-Bull Market Volatility, Corrections and Rebounds Coexist
A God further analyzed that the mid-bull market is showing weak volatility, with declining market confidence and a fragile structure. A bullish outlook is possible before the end of September due to interest rate cut expectations, suggesting taking profits. The monthly top divergence indicates a risk of correction in October, with BTC and Ethereum potentially retracting 20% and 25%-30%, respectively. In the long term, on-chain data shows no bearish signals, and there is no large-scale selling of BTC on exchanges, while the growth of stablecoin market cap raises the industry's ceiling. BTC's market cap share (Domination) has dropped from 60% to 57%, and if it falls below 45%, it may signal the end of the bull market. He mentioned that the SSR indicator (BTC market cap divided by stablecoin market cap) is currently at 8.8, far below the previous bull market peak of 20, indicating that there is still room for the bull market.
Coral: BTC Never Goes Out of Style, Be Cautious with Altcoins
Coral combined emotional and rational perspectives, emphasizing that BTC serves as a financial anchor regardless of bull or bear markets, and can be bought at any time. Altcoins, due to a lack of practical applications, have inflated market caps and are disconnected from market makers, making them prone to crashes. She believes the short-term market is bleak, but has long-term potential, with stablecoins and BTC reserves driving mass adoption. Celebrity-issued coins still attract newcomers in the short term, but the "wolf is coming" effect will mature the market and erode trust. She advises investors to conduct in-depth research on project value, be wary of team runaways or projects with no progress, rationally approach short-term fluctuations, and embrace long-term industry development.
Da Yong: Qimen Dunjia Reveals Six Major Issues with WLFI
Listener Da Yong analyzed WLFI using Qimen Dunjia, pointing out six major issues and solutions: 1) Partners appear strong but constrain the project, new partners need to be introduced; 2) Overheating publicity leads to a credibility crisis, information needs to be transparent; 3) The team is overly eager for quick success, a steady pace and mid-term goals are needed; 4) Reliance on old models, innovation and transformation are necessary; 5) Poor publicity, cooperation is needed to navigate obstacles; 6) Legal and policy risks exist, a legal reserve fund should be set aside. He predicted that WLFI's opening price of $0.31 would be the peak, now dropping to $0.20 for consolidation, making it difficult for a significant rise in the short term, validating his prediction accuracy.
Qie Ge's Summary: WLFI Opened High and Closed Low, Bull Market Rebound Expected
Qie Ge summarized that WLFI opened high and closed low, with the opening price of $0.31 being the peak, now consolidating at $0.20. Retail investors could have made a threefold profit if they sold early. The market experienced institutional mutual liquidation in July and August, leading to a cooling of enthusiasm, with the bull market entering its later stages. The first trading day of September was dull, and Wednesday may set the trend. Institutional selling may trigger a rebound, and altcoins may surge due to Meme hype, but caution is needed for overvalued projects. He pointed out that Trump coin once provided opportunities for some, Melania coin failed, and WLFI may struggle for attention if not issued by the Trump family. Qie Ge encouraged focusing on the project's contribution to the industry, recommending Techub News for professional information, and calling for rational investment to seize opportunities in the bull market rebound.
Conclusion: Rational Investment, Embrace Long-term Value
Despite unstable server signals, the 20th issue of "Trading Star Tuesday" was ignited by the enthusiastic discussions of guests and listeners. The WLFI craze has faded, and the market is temporarily low, but the long-term potential of BTC and the Web3 industry remains. Qie Ge urged following updates through Techub News, conducting in-depth research on project value, rationally facing fluctuations, and patiently awaiting the bull market rebound and industry maturation. Looking forward to the next episode, continuing to bring deep insights to the Web3 circle!
Disclaimer: The content of this article is for learning and exchange purposes only and is not investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investment carries risks. Please make cautious decisions and rationally approach market information.
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