Author: 0xBrooker
BTC Daily Trend
BTC opened this week at $108,247.95 and closed at $113,478.00, with a low of $111,129.61 and a high of $113,390.00, experiencing a decline of 3.41% and an increase of 2.66%, with trading volume shrinking compared to last week.
From a medium-term perspective, BTC remains in a market turmoil characterized by "interest rate cuts and revisions" and the "independence game of the Federal Reserve." In the short term, BTC's price fluctuated over the past week based on employment data and changes in industrial policy.
The overall employment data aligns with the expectation of a "mild cooling," pushing the probability of a rate cut in September to around 90%. The expectation of three rate cuts within the year has rebounded but remains low.
The SEC has stated it will strengthen regulation on treasury companies issuing stocks to acquire cryptocurrencies, which has suppressed the financing activities of treasury companies, currently the largest source of buying power in the market, and is one of the reasons for the market's distance.
EMC Labs maintains a cautiously optimistic attitude in the medium term. The rebalancing of market forces before and after the rate cut is bound to be bumpy, but the overall U.S. economy is sound, and the restart of the rate cut cycle supporting the upward pricing of risk assets is still certain.
Policy, Macro Finance, and Economic Data
On September 4, the JOLTS job openings data was released, showing a value of 8.4 million, lower than the expected 8.7 million and the previous value of 8.9 million, marking a continuous decline to a three-year low, further confirming that labor demand is cooling.
On September 5, the number of initial jobless claims for the previous week was reported at 232,000, slightly above the market expectation of 230,000. The number of continuing claims was 1.751 million, also slightly above the market expectation of 1.740 million. Both data points indicate a cooling job market.
On September 6, the non-farm payroll data showed that 173,000 jobs were added in August, below the market expectation of 180,000 and the previous value of 190,000. The unemployment rate rose from 4.0% to 4.1%, reaching the highest point since 2021, indicating a significant cooling in the labor market.
The employment data's mild "cooling" shows that the economy and employment are experiencing a slowdown, which solidifies the market's expectation of a rate cut in September. FedWatch indicates that the probability of a rate cut in September is close to 90%, with a small probability of a 75 basis point cut. This is a slight adjustment from last week's expectations.
As a result of this adjustment, U.S. stocks rebounded this week after two consecutive weeks of decline, with the Nasdaq rising 1.14% and the S&P 500 rising 0.33%, with all three major indices reaching historical highs during the session. Yields on both short and long-term U.S. Treasuries continued to decline, falling by 2.3% and 2.03%, respectively.
With no concerns about a rate cut, the magnitude and frequency of rate cuts are still being priced in. The U.S. dollar index, despite fluctuations, fell 0.11% to 97.737 for the week. Gold surged by 3.52% to $3,639 per ounce.
Crypto Market
Following a significant downward adjustment last week, BTC achieved a 2.66% rebound this week, barely breaking through the "Trump bottom" (the $90,000 to $110,000 range), but still under pressure from the "first upward trend line of the bull market," remaining below the 20-day moving average.
Over the past two months, BTC's attempt to initiate a "fourth wave of increase" ultimately failed, returning to the adjustment range. In addition to the impact of the rate cut cycle, this is also related to a shift in capital and a "cooling" of policies.
According to eMerge Engine data, the funding for the BTC Spot ETF channel has weakened for several consecutive weeks, and the procurement scale of treasury companies has also significantly declined.
In terms of regulation, the SEC released its latest opinions on crypto treasury companies (DATs) this week, incorporating them into the national exchange/ATS regulatory agenda and requiring treasury companies to obtain shareholder approval before diluting shares to finance the purchase of crypto assets. This new regulation will undoubtedly slow down the acquisition speed and scale of treasury companies, which the market views as a significant bearish signal, leading to a widespread decline in the stock prices of treasury companies, negatively impacting the trading prices of BTC, ETH, and others.
In addition to the cooling of industrial policies and the slowdown in capital inflow, long-term selling is also an important reason for the weakening of BTC prices. On-chain data shows that long-term holders sold over 40,000 BTC this week, significantly higher than last week.
Currently, the coin price is close to the short-term holding price, indicating that the downside risk has indeed diminished.
Cycle Indicators
According to eMerge Engine, the EMC BTC Cycle Metrics indicator is at 0.375, indicating an upward continuation phase.
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