A bullish narrative is gaining traction in cryptocurrency markets as forecasts for bitcoin’s year-end potential become increasingly optimistic. Supporters point to favorable monetary conditions and bitcoin’s history of strong fourth-quarter rallies as reasons the digital asset could see outsized gains. This momentum has intensified ahead of the Federal Reserve’s Sept. 17 meeting, which many view as a potential catalyst for risk assets.

Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors and chief investment officer at Fundstrat Capital, expressed his outlook during a CNBC interview last week. He stressed the link between crypto and monetary policy, stating: “ Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies like ethereum are super sensitive to monetary policy. So, I think that September 17th is an important catalyst. Crypto typically does really well in the fourth quarter.” He added:

So, I think bitcoin can easily get to $200,000 before year-end. I know it’s a big move. It’s almost a double.

When directly asked whether BTC could hit $200K by Christmas, Lee affirmed: “That’s right. One of the reasons bitcoin stalled this year is the Fed’s been on pause for nine months. That pause all year—if you look at an easing cycle, that’s only happened two other times, in 1998 and 2024, where the Fed began to resume cuts in the fourth quarter, in September. Equities do really well.” Emphasizing that “crypto is beta to equities,” he concluded:

So I think it’s going to be a very strong fourth quarter.

Not all observers share this outlook. Economist Peter Schiff pushed back against the projection in a post on social media platform X, asserting: “Instead of hitting $200K by year-end after the Fed cuts rates, it’s more likely to sink below $100K.” Schiff’s position reflects a broader camp of skeptics who question bitcoin’s ability to sustain gains in the face of volatility and structural risks. Advocates of Lee’s position counter that historical performance during easing cycles and the coin’s tendency to rise with equities make the upside case compelling, even in the face of skepticism.

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