This article is reprinted with authorization from Coin Market Operator, and the copyright belongs to the original author.

Recently, the warming expectations of interest rate cuts have boosted the risk appetite in the cryptocurrency market, leading to a strong performance in the altcoin sector. According to CoinMarketCap data, since September 1, the median increase of the top 100 altcoins by market capitalization has been 15.7%, far exceeding Bitcoin's 6.9%. However, while altcoins have generally strengthened, significant internal differentiation remains. For example, from September 1 to September 12, the CoinMarketCap 100 index rose by 7.4%, with the contributions from only SOL, BNB, and DOGE (which together account for only 7.5% of total market capitalization) reaching 36%. This indicates that while funds are pursuing price elasticity, they still struggle to escape "path dependence"—continuing to focus on coins with clear policy benefits (such as ETF approvals) and concentrated institutional holdings.

Therefore, the altcoin market is expected to remain primarily characterized by structural differentiation, with funds seeking a balance between "certainty" and "elasticity." On one hand, leading tokens like SOL and BNB, which have solid fundamentals, concentrated institutional holdings, and both policy benefits (such as ETF expectations) and potential for DAT allocation, are likely to continue leading the market. On the other hand, lower market cap altcoins that lack a distinct narrative or actual value support may still exhibit weak rebound strength, even in a favorable overall market environment, showing characteristics of "stagnation and leading declines."

This pattern of differentiation reflects that the current market is still dominated by institutional funds, which exhibit clear "path dependence" in their behavior. For instance, institutions tend to replicate Bitcoin's investment logic onto mainstream assets like Ethereum and SOL, and newly acquired financing is often used to increase existing holdings rather than being directed towards more marginal altcoins. For this reason, at this stage, betting on the certainty of core asset valuation expansion is far more favorable than betting on low-position rebounds.

Of course, lower-position coins are not completely without opportunities in this round of market activity. As long as liquidity easing continues to intensify, the overall market valuation level will eventually see a systemic increase. However, it is important to note that whether the altcoin market can fully explode depends on trading volume, which is a key leading indicator. Looking back at the two rounds of altcoin mini bull markets in March and November 2024, the average daily trading volume was maintained above $600 billion, while the current average daily trading volume is only about $300 billion. Therefore, until trading volume significantly increases, it is still too early to discuss an altcoin bull market.

If the rise after the Jackson Hole meeting in August was a "rehearsal" for the market's expectations of interest rate cuts, then the actual implementation of rate cuts may become a "day of reckoning" when the good news is fully priced in. The latest released CPI and employment data have intensified this concern—despite significantly weak non-farm employment (with an increase of only 22,000 and an unemployment rate rising to 4.3%), which provides a rationale for rate cuts, the CPI jumped 0.4% month-on-month, and core inflation remained high at 3.1%, indicating that inflationary stickiness has not yet been resolved. This combination of "economic slowdown + stubborn inflation" is prompting the market to reprice the "higher for longer" expectations and to be wary that policy responses may not simply be easing but rather a passive choice to address growth risks. Once rate cuts resonate with weak data, it may confirm concerns about "stagflation," and risk assets could face dual tests of earnings downgrades and valuation pressures.

In other words, whether the interest rate cut policy can effectively promote credit expansion hinges on whether the economy can achieve a "soft landing." If the economy truly falls into recession, mere monetary easing may struggle to substantively boost market confidence and endogenous demand. Although the probability of a recession occurring currently remains relatively low, the continuously accumulating macro risks cannot be ignored. Once multiple risk factors overlap and are concentrated, it may still trigger unexpected panic.

This week, although Bitcoin's price has gradually bottomed out and rebounded, the 25 Delta skew index in the options market remains high, reflecting investors' continued caution regarding its short-term trends. This phenomenon stems from the dual pressures of macroeconomic uncertainty (such as inflation stickiness and a weak job market) and structural issues within the cryptocurrency market itself. As a gathering place for "smart money," the high skew in the options market usually indicates strong hedging demand or that large funds are still positioning for downside protection during the rebound. If this indicator does not warm up in sync with prices, it suggests that the current rebound lacks sustained momentum, and the market's true stabilization will still require waiting for a new round of risk clearance.

Although Ethereum has recently outperformed Bitcoin, its key growth driver—the buying power of treasury companies—has significantly weakened, dropping by 70% month-on-month. Since the financing of Ethereum treasuries mainly relies on ATM (at-the-money) issuance strategies, and some treasury companies' mNAV (market value to net asset ratio) has fallen below 1, they are not only struggling to continue financing but are even forced to consume existing cash flow to repurchase stocks to maintain valuation. For example, the second-largest treasury company, SharpLink, has announced a $1.5 billion stock repurchase plan after its mNAV fell below 1, further exacerbating its cash flow pressure. If the top treasury company, Bitmine, also falls into the predicament of mNAV dropping below 1, the current fund-driven rally in Ethereum may be difficult to sustain.

We point out from both technical indicators (the weekly MACD forming a death cross) and chip structure (market prices significantly deviating from average costs) that even if the most moderate horizontal consolidation replaces the decline, Bitcoin's oscillation pattern is expected to continue for 2-3 weeks, while Ethereum may need 3-4 weeks. This time window coincides with two key verification periods: one is to confirm whether inflation will rebound significantly after the rate cuts, and the other is to observe whether policy benefits can boost the fundamentals of the Ethereum ecosystem (shifting from fund-driven to fundamental-driven). In summary, the market has reached a point where a break is needed, and the adjustment is for better upward movement.

Related: The market capitalization of stablecoins reaches $300 billion on CoinMarketCap—why are there discrepancies in data across platforms?

Original article: “The Crypto Market Enters the ‘In-Between Phase’”

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