By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Global markets are treading water as investors wait on the Federal Reserve’s latest policy move, coming later today. It’s almost a given the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Traders will instead focus on Chair Jerome Powell for signs on future policy.

The cryptocurrency market is no different. Over the last 24 hours, the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index is practically unchanged, up just 0.2%, while bitcoin (BTC) is around 1% higher. Gold, which surged to a record $3,700 this week, slipped 0.5%. The U.S. dollar index added less than 0.2%.

Equities markets have barely moved as well. U.S. stocks slipped in yesterday’s session, while European equities are edging higher. The FTSE All-World Index advanced less than 0.1% today.

That's today. But over a longer period, cryptocurrencies have lagged behind equities.

In the last 30 days, the FTSE All-World Index rose 2.78%, while the CoinDesk 20 added 2.6% and BTC gained 1.6%. The moves suggest caution even ahead of rate cut that would boost the appeal of risk assets.

Investors are currently pricing in six interest rate cuts. Three this year, and three next year.

“Market expectations are positioned in a Goldilocks range: six cuts represent a middle ground between caution and aggression,” analysts at QCP Capital wrote in a note.

“A deviation in the dot plot, however, would challenge that balance, forcing investors to recalibrate around the risk of tighter-than-expected conditions or a Fed struggling to respond effectively to weaker growth,” the analysts added.

Markets' real test will be Powell’s press conference. A balanced message is likely to further support risk assets, while hesitation would force investors to reassess.

Despite the uncertainty, demand for spot crypto ETFs has remained robust. This week, net inflows for spot BTC ETFs are around $550 million, while spot ether ETFs brought in nearly $300 million. Stay alert!

What to Watch

• Crypto
  • Nothing scheduled.
• Macro
  • Sept. 17, 9:45 a.m.: Canada benchmark interest rate decision Est. 2.5% followed by a press conference.
  • Sept. 17, 2 p.m.: Fed decision on U.S. interest rates, including updated dot plot projections. Est. 25 bps cut to 4.00%-4.25%, followed by a press conference.
  • Sept. 17, 5:30 p.m.: Brazil benchmark interest rate decision Est. 15%.
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • None scheduled.

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
  • MantleDAO is voting on keeping the 2025-2026 budget at $52 million USDc and 200 million MNT. Voting ends Sept. 18.
  • Sept. 17, 6 a.m.: DYdX to host an Analyst Call.
• Unlocks
  • Sept. 17: ZKsync (ZK) to unlock 3.61% of its circulating supply worth $10.54 million.
• Token Launches
  • Sept. 18: Deadline to convert MKR to SKY before the Delayed Upgrade Penalty takes effect.

Conferences

• Day 2 of 2: Real-World Asset Summit (New York)
• Sept. 17: The Bitcoin Treasuries NYC Unconference (New York)
• Day 1 of 3: AIBC 2025 (Tokyo, Japan)

Token Talk

By Oliver Knight

• Bitcoin (BTC) continues to stubbornly trade in a tight range, rising slightly to $116,000 in the past 24 hours, but failing to build momentum for a break out.
• Altcoins are capitalizing on the lack of volatility with several spikes leading to bitcoin dominance sliding to an eight-month low of 57%, according to CoinMarketCap data.
• Dominance is a metric commonly used to assess whether capital is flowing into bitcoin or more speculative altcoins, as seems to be the case.
• Another bullish factor for altcoins is that the average crypto token RSI, an abbreviation for relative strength index, is at 45.47. This means that altcoins are edging into "oversold" territory as opposed to "overbought," suggesting that several tokens are primed for an extension to the upside.
• It's worth noting that bitcoin dominance fell all the way to 33% in 2017 and 40% in 2021, meaning that altcoins still have more room to run.
• Much will depend on how bitcoin acts if it begins to test record highs at $124,000. A breakout on significant volume will likely lead to a capital rotation back to the largest cryptocurrency as investors attempt to capitalize on a potential cycle high, with the personalities such as Eric Trump calling for $175,000 before year-end.

Derivatives Positioning

• BTC futures open interest across major venues has crept up to $32 billion over the past week.
• At the same time, the three-month annualized basis has started compressing again to roughly 6-7% across Binance, OKX and Deribit, leaving the carry trade only marginally profitable.
• While the OI growth suggests increasing activity and engagement in the market, the narrowing basis indicates that directional conviction, particularly on the bullish side, is weakening, with traders less willing to pay a high premium for future exposure.
• The options data also presents a complex picture of market sentiment.
• While the BTC Implied Volatility Term Structure chart shows an upward-sloping curve, suggesting the market expects long-term volatility to be higher than short-term, other metrics point to a more immediate bearish outlook.
• Specifically, the 25 delta skew chart indicates that the skew is either flat or slightly negative for shorter-term options (1-week, 1-month), which means traders are paying a premium for puts over calls to gain protection against declines.
• This short-term bearish sentiment is directly contradicted by the 24-hour put-call volume chart, which shows a higher volume of calls than puts, indicating that over the past 24 hours most options traders were positioning for a price increase.
• Funding rate APRs across major perpetual swap venues have recently started to show some pickup with BTC annualized funding currently at 17%.
• If the uptrend is maintained and followed by other venues, funding rates would suggest growing conviction in a directional, more bullish bet on prices.

Market Movements

• BTC is down 0.22% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $116,637.44 (24hrs: +1.01%)
• ETH is unchanged at $4,498.24 (24hrs: +0.00%)
• CoinDesk 20 is down 0.58% at 4,272.21 (24hrs: +0.1%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 2 bps at 2.86%
• BTC funding rate is at 0.0077% (8.4589% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is up 0.14% at 96.76
• Gold futures are down 0.52% at $3,705.60
• Silver futures are down 2.14% at $42.00
• Nikkei 225 closed down 0.25% at 44,790.38
• Hang Seng closed up 1.78% at 26,908.39
• FTSE is up 0.20% at 9,213.65
• Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.11% at 5,377.98
• DJIA closed on Tuesday down 0.27% at 45,757.90
• S&P 500 closed down 0.13% at 6,606.76
• Nasdaq Composite closed unchanged at 22,333.96
• S&P/TSX Composite closed down 0.39% at 29,315.23
• S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.52% at 2,919.60
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 1 bps at 4.016%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are unchanged at 6,669.00
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged at 24,525.25
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are unchanged at 46,146.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 58.3% (unchanged)
• Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.0386 (0.15%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,021 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $54.43
• Total fees: 4.18 BTC / $483,499
• CME Futures Open Interest: 144,220 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 31.8 oz.
• BTC vs gold market cap: 8.91%

Technical Analysis

• Bitcoin has surged from $107K to $117K, now trading above all key daily exponential moving averages.
• Despite this strength, the broader bias remains cautious.
• For momentum to continue, bulls will look for a decisive reclaim of the daily order block between $117K and $119K, an area that also aligns with the weekly order block established in early August.

Crypto Equities

• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Tuesday at $327.91 (+0.27%), -0.52% at $326.19 in pre-market
• Circle (CRCL): closed at $134.81 (+0.57%), +1.07% at $136.25
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $31.83 (+3.44%), -1.35% at $31.40
• Bullish (BLSH): closed at $51.36 (+0.55%), -0.35% at $51.18
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $17.53 (+7.94%), -0.34% at $17.47
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $17.52 (+5.04%), +0.23% at $17.56
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.18 (-0.86%), unchanged in pre-market
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $11.20 (+8.84%), unchanged in pre-market
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $39.86 (+2.92%), -1.15% at $39.40
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $29.70 (+6.53%), -1.11% at $29.37

Crypto Treasury Companies

• Strategy (MSTR): closed at $335.09 (+2.23%), +0.21% at $335.80
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $29.11 (+2.54%)
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $16.95 (+0.95%), unchanged in pre-market
• Upexi (UPXI): closed at $5.82 (-8.06%), +3.09% at $6
• Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $2.69 (-7.56%), +10.43% at $3.07

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net flows: $292.3 million
• Cumulative net flows: $57.34 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.32 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flows: -$61.7 million
• Cumulative net flows: $13.68 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~6.61 million

Source: Farside Investors

While You Were Sleeping

• Metaplanet Sets Up U.S., Japan Subsidiaries, Buys Bitcoin.jp Domain Name (CoinDesk): The world’s sixth-largest BTC treasury company formed Bitcoin Japan to run bitcoin-focused media platforms and U.S.-based Metaplanet Income to generate revenue from bitcoin-related financial products.
• 21Shares Hits 50 Crypto ETPs in Europe With Launch of AI and Raydium-Focused Products: 21Shares is introducing two crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs), one tracking a group of decentralized AI protocols and one offering exposure to the token of Solana-based decentralized exchange Raydium.
• Hex Trust Adds Custody and Staking for Lido’s stETH, Expanding Institutional Access to Ethereum Rewards (CoinDesk): The firm’s one-click staking feature enables clients to access staking rewards and decentralized finance (DeFi) liquidity tools for stETH without setting up their own infrastructure.
• Three Things Britain Wants From Trump’s State Visit — Aside From Business Deals (CNBC): The U.K. wants Trump’s visit to advance the unfinished trade deal, tackle hurdles such as steel and aluminum tariffs and lock in investment from BlackRock, Alphabet and Blackstone.
• UK Watchdog to Waive Some Rules for Cryptoasset Providers (Financial Times): The FCA says it will adapt regulations to crypto’s unique risks, pledging stricter safeguards on technology and resilience while exploring whether investors should gain wider consumer protections.

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