Author: The Smart Ape

Compiled by: Tim, PANews

I feel that a piece of news has been overlooked on crypto Twitter: the CEO of ConsenSys recently announced that the MetaMask token is set to launch soon. His exact words were, "The MASK token is coming, possibly sooner than you expect."

MetaMask Adoption

Personally, I no longer use MetaMask, as I prefer the interface and features of Rabby, but MetaMask still has the first-mover advantage. It remains the most popular wallet, with 143 million users.

MetaMask Revenue Analysis

MetaMask has multiple sources of income:

1. MetaMask Swap: A built-in DEX aggregator that charges about 0.9% per swap.
2. Deposits and Withdrawals: Purchasing cryptocurrency using bank cards.
3. Cross-chain Bridge: Token transfers across chains.
4. Staking: Direct ETH staking through MetaMask Portfolio.
5. Institutional Version: MetaMask's institutional solutions for funds and enterprises.

In the past three months, MetaMask's weekly trading volume has ranged between $60 million and $200 million.

This means an average weekly revenue of $1.5 million, with an annual revenue of about $72 million. Last year, the figures were even higher, with weekly revenue around $2.5 million and annual revenue reaching $120 million.

Cross-chain bridge revenue can reach up to $100,000 per day, adding another $36 million annually.

Other revenues contribute about $10 million annually, bringing MetaMask's total annual revenue to approximately $120 million.

FDV Estimation

We are still unclear about the economic model and actual utility of the MetaMask token, but it would not be surprising if there were some form of revenue sharing or buyback mechanism. If so, the revenue will drive its valuation.

To gauge a reasonable fully diluted valuation/income multiple, we can refer to other wallet tokens like TWT, SFP, XDEFI, and GNO.

Under conservative expectations, the fully diluted valuation to income ratio could reach 100 times.

Based on the current annual revenue of about $120 million, this means its fully diluted valuation could approach $12 billion.

In comparison, Trust Wallet is the second most used wallet, with its token TWT having an FDV of $1.32 billion, making it hard to imagine that the issuance valuation of the MetaMask token would be lower than $5 billion FDV.

Potentially the Largest Airdrop Ever

The largest airdrops in history include Uniswap, ApeCoin, dYdX, and Arbitrum, and the MetaMask airdrop is very likely to change this top airdrop list, potentially joining or even surpassing this group.

If we assume a fully diluted valuation of $12 billion and a 20% airdrop to MetaMask users, the amount distributed could reach $2.4 billion, easily placing it among the top three.

Despite the total amount being huge, it will be distributed among over 143 million users. The uniqueness of this airdrop lies in its large pool of eligible users, which amplifies the total value and expands its reach.

A large user base, ongoing revenue, clear utility, and market hype every four years could make this a historic airdrop.

How to Profit from the MetaMask Token Launch?

I would usually say to maximize your airdrop opportunities, but if you haven't started actively participating, it may be too late now, especially considering the ConsenSys CEO hinted that the mainnet is about to go live.

One strategy now is to participate in pre-sales, as the MetaMask token is expected to launch soon on Whales Market, and clearly, I am not the only one waiting for this launch news.

I will closely monitor the FDV before the listing: if the opening valuation is below $5 billion, early buying could be very attractive, although volatility is expected to be very high.

MetaMask may also introduce token incentive programs, such as mUSD liquidity pools, staking opportunities, or trading rewards, which could be a good way to mine MetaMask tokens early with high annualized returns.

Given the large number of potential token recipients, extreme market volatility is likely to occur in the first 24 hours post-airdrop, creating significant arbitrage opportunities between centralized and decentralized exchanges.

Concerns After the LINEA Misstep

ConsenSys launched LINEA a few weeks ago but made some significant mistakes.

There were technical issues during the TGE, including distribution delays and network congestion.

The actual utility of the token remains unclear, and there was immediate whale selling after the airdrop ended.

Many complained that Binance Alpha users had faster and more favorable access than most of the community.

I just hope that ConsenSys can learn from previous mistakes and avoid repeating them with the MetaMask project, especially ensuring that Binance Alpha or insiders do not receive tokens and listing news earlier than the core MetaMask user group.

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