A global shift toward easier monetary policy could define the next major phase of cryptocurrency markets as central banks signal renewed liquidity support, creating a macro backdrop increasingly favorable for risk assets. Bitmex cofounder Arthur Hayes wrote on Oct. 8 that bitcoin is poised to benefit most from this turn, arguing that its historical four-year price pattern has ended and that liquidity dynamics now determine its trajectory. He linked bitcoin’s future directly to interest-rate policy and credit expansion across the world’s two largest economies—the United States and China.

“ Bitcoin in the current state of human civilization is the best form of money ever created. Like all money, it has a relative value. Given that Pax Americana quasi-empire rules via the US dollar, we value bitcoin relative to the dollar,” Hayes stated, adding:

Assuming the technology works, bitcoin’s price will ebb and flow ‌because of the price and supply of dollars.

He noted that traders who still rely on the four-year framework “apply this rule without understanding why it worked in the past,” asserting that the cycle no longer holds true. Hayes made clear that in his view, the long-held belief in bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle—the idea that each halving triggers a predictable bull run—no longer explains market behavior. He said the framework is “dead” because bitcoin’s price now responds primarily to shifts in global liquidity, not to programmed supply cuts.

“The question is, are there any obvious turning points at the various bitcoin ATH levels that can roughly explain the peak and subsequent collapse of the price?” he wrote, explaining that liquidity trends—rather than time-based patterns—have historically dictated market highs and lows.

Looking ahead, Hayes predicted that both Washington and Beijing are poised to ease monetary conditions. He highlighted U.S. President Donald Trump’s push for lower rates and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s liquidity injections as signs of coming stimulus, while noting China’s efforts to combat deflation could reinforce global credit growth. He said this shift marks a “new monetary era” for bitcoin—one defined not by predictable halvings but by global credit expansion and contraction cycles.

Before closing, Hayes reaffirmed that the death of the four-year cycle does not mean the end of bitcoin’s strength, but rather its evolution into a new phase governed by liquidity forces. He concluded:

Bitcoin continues to rise in anticipation of this highly probable future. The king is dead, long live the king!

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