In the political deadlock in Washington, the Senate Banking Committee is quietly advancing cryptocurrency legislation, highlighting the urgency of digital asset regulation and bipartisan consensus. The U.S. government shutdown has entered its ninth day, with both parties in Congress still at an impasse over budget issues. The Senate rejected a bill to fund the federal government for the seventh time this Wednesday, prolonging the shutdown crisis. Amid this political storm, a legislative process concerning the future of cryptocurrency has shown resilience. Despite the House being in recess due to the shutdown, the Senate Banking Committee still plans to advance the "Responsible Financial Innovation Act" by the end of this month, aiming to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets.
1. Shutdown Stalemate
The U.S. government shutdown has entered its second week, with some federal agencies coming to a halt since midnight on October 1, 2025.
● The main reason is the partisan divide between Republicans and Democrats over federal spending levels, foreign aid cuts, and health insurance subsidies, which has prevented Congress from passing a continuing resolution (CR) bill to keep the government running.
● Although the Republicans hold 53 seats in the Senate, they still need at least 8 Democratic votes to reach the 60-vote threshold to overcome procedural hurdles.
● In recent votes, the Democratic funding bill was rejected 45 to 55, while the Republican bill was rejected 52 to 42, with neither bill meeting the passage threshold.
The root of the shutdown can be traced back to the budget negotiation stalemate at the end of September:
● The "clean" continuing resolution pushed by Republicans only provides short-term funding, but Democrats insist on attaching conditions such as border security and Medicaid, leading to a breakdown in negotiations.
● President Trump publicly pressured Democrats, stating that he would be "happy to work with Democrats" on issues like healthcare if they agreed to immediately restart government operations.
● The White House Office of Management and Budget has issued a memo confirming the government shutdown and blaming Democrats, but noted that "it is difficult to predict how long the shutdown will last."
The U.S. government shutdown disrupts the release of the September non-farm payroll report.
● Non-farm employment increased by 50,000, amplifying concerns about job slowdown;
● The September CPI will be released on October 15 or slightly later, with core inflation expected to rise by 2.5%-2.7%, accuracy compromised;
● The Federal Reserve's meeting on October 28-29 may maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.00%-4.25% or cut by 25 basis points, with data absence prompting Powell to adopt a wait-and-see approach.
Data Indicators
Original Release Date
Impact of Shutdown
Market Expectations
Impact on the Federal Reserve
September Non-farm Employment
October 3
Completely Delayed
Increase of 50,000, unemployment rate 4.3%
Missing employment signals may delay rate cuts
September CPI
October 15
Possible delay, accuracy compromised
Core CPI year-on-year 2.5%-2.7%
Inflation data deviation increases policy uncertainty
October FOMC Meeting
October 30
Indirect Impact
Maintain or cut by 25 basis points
Highly dependent on NFP/CPI, leaning towards wait-and-see
2. National Impact
● Federal employees and military personnel are in distress. Due to the government "shutdown," about 750,000 federal employees have been forced to take unpaid leave, while military and border patrol personnel who cannot leave their posts are temporarily "working without pay."
● If the federal government "shutdown" lasts for a longer period, it may lead to layoffs. According to internal letters seen by Reuters, the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office plans to cut 1% of its 14,000 employees.
● Air travel and traffic control are under pressure. Many airports across the U.S. are experiencing staff shortages, with reduced air traffic controllers in some areas, affecting flight operations.
● Economic data and public services are interrupted. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has failed to release the monthly employment data report as scheduled, and key inflation data originally set to be released in mid-month may also be delayed.
● Hundreds of attractions managed by the National Park Service have suspended operations or limited services, impacting the tourism industry. Jeff Freeman, CEO of the U.S. Travel Association, stated that a week of "shutdown" will lead to a $1 billion loss in the tourism industry.
Impact Dimensions
Specific Manifestations
Potential Consequences
Legislative Process
The Senate Agriculture Committee has delayed the release of its bill draft due to key agency staff being on leave. The Senate Banking Committee's review and voting on the "Responsible Financial Innovation Act" (RFIA) have also been affected.
The legislative timeline has been severely disrupted, potentially causing the best window for signing into law before the 2026 midterm elections to be missed.
Agency Functions
Over 90% of employees at the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) have been forced to take leave, retaining only about 393 employees to handle urgent matters, pausing the review of cryptocurrency ETF registration statements. Only 5.7% of the 543 employees at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) remain on duty.
Approval of key market products is stalled, regulatory and enforcement capabilities are significantly weakened, increasing market uncertainty.
Market and Investors
Approval of new cryptocurrency ETFs has been indefinitely postponed. The uncertainty of the regulatory outlook may affect investor confidence.
-
3. Economic Losses
● Goldman Sachs estimates that for every week the government is "shut down," economic growth will decline by about 0.15 percentage points, and when considering the impact on private institutions, economic growth may decline by 0.2 percentage points.
● The UK-based accounting firm Ernst & Young predicts that for every week the government is "shut down," it could cause about $7 billion in losses to the U.S. economy.
● The U.S. Congressional Budget Office estimates that the 35-day government shutdown from late 2018 to early 2019 caused a permanent loss of $30 billion to GDP.
● Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon, expressed concern, stating, "In such a critical period, the reduction in data makes understanding the economy more difficult," likening it to "blind flying in thick fog," which is very dangerous. National parks closed during the "shutdown" lose $1 million in ticket revenue daily, while surrounding businesses lose $77 million daily.
4. Cryptocurrency Legislation
● The Senate Banking Committee continues to advance the "Responsible Financial Innovation Act." The committee leadership hopes to mark up the "Responsible Financial Innovation Act" by the end of this month, regardless of whether the budget passes. Coordination with the House process is ongoing.
● On the key issue of token securities regulation, the Senate draft differs from the "CLARITY Act" that has already passed the House. Paradigm believes the Senate's "ancillary assets" approach is more favorable to the cryptocurrency industry. The longer the government shutdown lasts, the harder it will be to recover the losses suffered by the U.S. economy.
● The Senate Banking Committee's insistence on advancing the "Responsible Financial Innovation Act" indicates that digital asset regulation has become an important area of bipartisan consensus, transcending short-term political disputes. This shutdown crisis serves as a reminder that the institutional deadlock in U.S. politics may delay but ultimately cannot stop the advancement of key policies.
Bill Name
Core Content
Latest Legislative Status
Probability and Outlook for Passage
"GENIUS Act"
(Stablecoin Act)
Establishes a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins pegged to the dollar, requiring 1:1 reserves.
Has been signed into law by President Trump.
Has become law.
"CLARITY Act"
(Market Structure Act)
Clarifies the regulatory boundaries of the SEC and CFTC over digital assets.
Passed the House in July 2025. Awaiting review after the Senate Banking Committee and Agriculture Committee draft and merge their respective versions.
If the Senate can complete its review by the end of the year, the likelihood of signing into law before the 2026 midterm elections is 80%-90%.
"Responsible Financial Innovation Act"
(Senate Market Structure Act)
The Senate version of the market structure bill, introducing concepts like "ancillary assets."
The Senate Banking Committee has released a revised version and plans to mark it up by the end of this month.
Highly dependent on the duration of the government shutdown and political maneuvering; if delayed until spring 2026, the probability of passage will be below 50%.
Join our community to discuss and grow stronger together!
Official Telegram community: https://t.me/aicoincn
AiCoin Chinese Twitter: https://x.com/AiCoinzh
OKX benefits group: https://aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=l61eM4owQ
Binance benefits group: https://aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=ynr7d1P6Z
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
