The 197th Uweb live class, hosted by Uweb and supported by Techub News, focused on the theme "In-depth Analysis of the October 11th Liquidation Event + Market Outlook." Host Yu Jiayu, Uweb President, teamed up with guest teacher Oneone and alumnus Haowi to conduct an in-depth discussion on the significant impact of Trump's tariff announcement on the cryptocurrency market. The live session centered on the black swan event of October 11th, which led to a global evaporation of nearly $500 billion in crypto assets and over $19 billion in perpetual contract liquidations. The guests reviewed the event from multiple dimensions, including macroeconomic triggers, exchange mechanisms, and DeFi resilience, emphasizing that while the market exposed weaknesses in infrastructure (such as CEX order book outages and pricing discrepancies), the rapid recovery indicated that the fundamentals of the bull market remained unchanged. President Yu pointed out that the $4 trillion market is still subject to human manipulation, and institutional bullish logic requires regulatory iteration; Oneone sharply analyzed the amplification of leverage and insider trading suspicions; Haowi added insights on the transparent advantages of DeFi. The three topics progressed step by step, from event review to bear market judgment, and then to altcoin strategies, providing professional investment insights to help the audience maintain risk control, mainstream allocation, and fundamental analysis amidst volatility.

External Sharing Class:

Topic 1: In-depth Review of the October 11th Liquidation Event

Yu Jiayu: The Butterfly Effect of Trump and Exposed Infrastructure Weaknesses

President Yu opened by analyzing the root causes of the market's "very bad" sentiment over the past week: volatility is typically a profit indicator in financial markets, but this time it was severely disrupted by human factors such as Trump's tariff announcement (100% tariffs on China), leading to a farcical surge and crash in the $4 trillion market. The event coincided with the weakest liquidity moments on Friday when the U.S. market closed and Asia was asleep, triggering global asset panic selling; leverage rates reached historical highs (with open contract volumes exploding), and neutral strategies like USDE circular lending amplified returns only if the market was effective, but liquidation efficiency failed. The BN order book experienced a 20-minute "black moment," with distorted quotes and a failed inquiry mechanism (relying on secondary market prices), causing market makers to shift from liquidity providers to sellers, with small coins dropping 99%; the sequence was: tariff panic → sell-off → market makers withdrawing funds → exchange outages → chain liquidations. It emphasized that under institutionalization, leverage is not a gamble but rather an arbitrage hedge, yet the fragile infrastructure (such as black box data and oracle issues) makes "what is said and what is done different," and the value of the sample lies in understanding the fog and cultivating professional asset managers.

Oneone: BN Order Book Failure and the Chain of Misfortunes

Oneone shared his firsthand experience: at 5 PM, community alerts indicated that TOT/LTX on BN dropped 99%, triggered by Trump's tariff announcement causing panic, with market makers withdrawing small coins to protect large coins (like BTC/ETH), and leverage exceeding the previous round (with perpetual totals at historical highs). The extreme drop in BN was due to the order book (matching trades) failing, leaving only sell orders with no buy orders, and local liquidity was only a few thousand dollars; WBETH/BNBSOL and others decoupled (temporarily, not fundamentally), and USDE dropped 0.6 due to an inability to recharge. The three types of misfortunes: all long positions cleared, ADL short positions (automatically settled without counterparties), and project parties suffering huge losses due to BN pricing. There were suspicions of insider trading (a mysterious whale from Hyper Liquid precisely shorting and earning $192 million, with a 50% probability); the total evaporation of $500 billion was more than Luna/FTX, with all on-chain leverage wiped out. Personally, I bought TOT/LTX/WBETH at the bottom, turning five times in 20 minutes, emphasizing the golden pit under the black swan.

Haowi: BN Issued Asset Leverage Kidnapping and DeFi Escaping a Calamity

Haowi added from a DeFi perspective: the trigger was BN's Solana/WBETH/USDE and other assets issued by BN, where trading rules read secondary prices easily manipulated (with a $400 million cost to crash the market), and users used them to collateralize long positions for extra gains or circular arbitrage amplification. The unified account leverage layer, BN's acceptance of USDE, was the essence of the explosion; DeFi infrastructure improved (repairing from Luna's sentiment), with Uniswap trading $9 billion, Hyper exploding to $20 billion yet ADL protecting users, and oracles fixing prices (like 1:1 pegging) to avoid liquidation. BN's liquidation was higher than announced, with USDE's underlying reserves only losing tens of thousands and not cooling off; the shift to DeFi was due to transparency trends, similar to CG incubating Aster. Personally, I am all in on DeFi assets, optimistic about new AMM solutions (like impermanent loss plans), and aiming to regain a central position within a cycle.

Topic 2: Will the Major Liquidation Lead to a Bear Market?

Yu Jiayu: Deleveraging as a Booster Rather than an Engine Shutdown

President Yu judged that the bull market has not turned into a bear market: the liquidation is a deleveraging booster shaking off the shells, not the main rocket (ETF/DAT institutional funds) shutting down. Trump's tariffs were merely a trigger; in the last round, BTC dropped 10% and ETH 20% due to tariffs, and this time the drop should be smaller, primarily because leverage rates are higher than historical levels; deleveraging is beneficial for the market, and severe long leverage explosions are advantageous for the future. The market is robust, like a bullfighter being poked without harm, and the bullish momentum has not been released; the disappointment of building infrastructure on sand is offset by the rapid recovery of losses (spot has already recovered). Uweb alumni research: low leverage, mainstream focus, and altcoins are less affected, with quick recovery. Emphasizing professionalism: risk control is paramount, and adjusting positions in cycles rather than chasing highs and cutting losses.

Oneone: The Logic of Capital Inflow Determines Bull or Bear, Not Black Swans

Oneone compared three historical cycles: 1718 ICO endogenous funding, 94 post-bear; 2020 QE printing bull, interest rate hike bear; this round sees continuous inflow through ETFs (DAT using stocks to support coins). The core of the bull-to-bear transition lies in capital reduction: SEC's withdrawal of ETFs, DAT selling coins, and stagnation in growth. In a rate-cutting cycle (once this month, twice next year), it is too early to judge a bear market; black swans like May 19 (miners selling coins) recover quickly, similar to this event. Long-term holders have not sold, and sideways movements are dominated by short-term traders; the fear index below 30 is historically a buying point (last round recovered from 79k to 110k). Personally, I do not feel a transition to a bear market, but rather a black swan within a bull market, with fundamentals unchanged.

Haowi: DeFi Resilience Validates Institutional Trends Not Reversed

Haowi implied a judgment: the event is favorable for DeFi (DEX scale surpassing CEX), exposing CEX risks but not altering institutional bullishness. On-chain transparency allows for escape, and personally, I post-event all in on DeFi, with trends shifting towards decentralization.

Topic 3: How to Play Altcoins in the New Situation?

Yu Jiayu: Extreme Market Conditions Reveal True Capital Flows and Differentiation

President Yu pointed out that altcoins are heavily affected but recover quickly, exposing irresponsibility from project parties/market makers (such as reliance on automated strategies without contingency plans). The truth is revealed under extremes: the market maker's lines are not capital flows, and the sharp drop shows strong support (from project parties/communities); Uweb's principle: altcoins assist mainstream, with significant differentiation in tracks, and low leverage to control risks. It is recommended to learn fundamentals and avoid blind faith in "wealth codes."

Oneone: REV Moat and Valuation Models Determine Life and Death

Oneone criticized the notion that "altcoins essentially go to zero" as irresponsible, pointing to Bitcoin as an anchor and platform coins as company tickets; the core lies in real REV (sustainable earnings), PE/PEG (price-earnings growth), token economics, and circulation. DeFi uses PE/PEG, while Meme uses SIR contagion models; this round's BN spike was not true pricing (OE not reaching 0.5), quickly reverting to liquidity issues around 2.7. Buying TOT/LTX/WBETH at the bottom earned 3-5 times; in a bull market, pits are golden pits, and ordinary people need to combine research and investment (research fundamentals, invest in market makers/fees), while large holders stay away. AST OKX analysis: excellent product (high wallet growth) but no wealth effect, X chain or new actions, with Dragon 2 eating 20% market value potential.

Haowi: Focus on DeFi Assets and New Opportunity Solutions

Haowi is optimistic about DeFi altcoins: all in after the event, with improved infrastructure; new AMM solutions mitigate impermanent loss, reviving within the cycle. CRV is recommended (buying at 0.02 to double), with Kraken/BN public offerings booming.

Student Exclusive:

In the Era of ETFs, How Should Retail Investors Play the Crypto Market?

Market Judgment for Next Year

Oneone is generally optimistic about the crypto market next year, expecting the Federal Reserve to have two more rate cuts, and will not fully exit before the second cut, but will reduce positions to around 30%. Bitcoin and other assets have reached expectations. Macro-wise, Trump's policies are positive (such as rapid rate cuts, the Great American Japanese Act), with strong execution, likely to be implemented, but aggressive measures may trigger significant inflation (global fiscal stimulus intensifying), leading to sudden market adjustments around mid or late next year (like interest rates rising). Risks are certain, and inflation data needs attention. The basic logic: the market always has opportunities, but if the timing is wrong, all trades are wrong. It is recommended to allocate assets like institutions, clearly defining "eating the fish head/body/tail," and adjusting when the market is not right.

Personal Investment Strategy

I admire Livermore's "1/8 theory": do not chase the last 15% of profits to avoid missing the top. I lack the ability to time the bottom, so I only do dollar-cost averaging (like dollar-cost averaging Ethereum during the 2022 bear market at a cost of $1300, occupying 70% of my position, with stable returns). Buying and selling in batches: buy to avoid path dependence, sell in four stages (beginning, mid-term, climax, end), aiming for the highest profit of 50%, and switch for risk control. Example: take profits at 100k/120k; sell CRV when it rises by $1 to recover the cost, then sell 25% when it doubles, letting the remainder fly. Stabilizing emotions is paramount (> strategy), using flexible funds as "bullets" during black swan events (like October 11), buying in fully when Bitcoin returns to $40,000 in a bear market, pursuing neutral returns. Selling depends on personal expectation adjustments; most teachers only teach buying, not selling.

Recommended Coin Analysis

OKB: After the merger of platform coins, the total supply is 21 million, with a market value of about $4.2 billion. Compared to BNB (market value of $154 billion, with a potential of $15.4 billion at 10%) and BGB (over $3 billion), the valuation is relatively low or moderate. Potential: X Layer has good projects and wealth effect projects, with significant value discovery space. The win rate is not low, but there are compliance risks (the dream of listing may not drive the market).

PUMP (Pump.fun): A Solana launch platform, like "the strongest assistant + casino slot machine." Peak daily earnings of $15 million, now down to hundreds of thousands. The opening market cap of $4 billion was too high, encountering a Solana bear market drop. Future prospects depend on the revival of the Solana Meme season and new features (like live streaming) driving the market. If the ecosystem is active, it will rise; otherwise, it will die. Bet on the platform ecosystem rather than the coin itself.

Retail investors in the ETF era must approach the market rationally and objectively, controlling emotions and operating in batches. DeFi needs close attention, with further sharing to come. Promoting the U.S. study abroad program (celebrity group visiting the Federal Reserve, etc.), with a gathering in Beijing on Sunday for exchanges, and urging to secure U.S. visas. Total word count: 498.

This live session not only reviewed the tragic events of October 11th (with $500 billion evaporated and infrastructure cracked) but also provided professional tools: prioritizing risk control, mainstream allocation, REV valuation, and DeFi migration. President Yu emphasized long-termism, maintaining engagement with the course; Oneone sharply inspired investment research models; Haowi shared on-chain trends. Regardless of bull or bear, cognitive drive and transparent mechanisms help navigate volatility. Uweb continues to hold classes (Tuesday market trends, Thursday compliance, Sunday data), welcoming participation in the U.S. study abroad program/offline workshops, embracing institutional bullishness and ecological iteration. See you next time!

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