Author: Bing Chacha

"If I had bought Bitcoin in 2014, I would have been financially free by now." This kind of regret is something every market participant desires. In 2014, the price of Bitcoin was only around $500, and over a decade later, it reached a price of $110,000.

But now it's 2025, and the probability of ordinary people finding the next Bitcoin has become extremely low. This is not only a result of market maturation but also a fundamental change in the rules of the game.

1. Real Data, the Silent Majority

According to data from CoinGecko, as of September 21, 2025, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has surpassed $4.1 trillion, currently reported at $4.142 trillion. Among them, Bitcoin (BTC) accounts for 55.8% of the market cap, while Ethereum (ETH) accounts for 13.1%. The combined market share of mainstream coins (Bitcoin and Ethereum) is approximately 68.9%.

Behind this set of data is an extremely polarized market, which not only illustrates the dominance of mainstream assets but also reflects the "long tail dilemma" faced by a vast number of projects. This means that the remaining tokens (including the projects we pay attention to daily) can only compete in a brutally limited market space of 31.1% (about $1.29 trillion).

Extreme Fragmentation of Market Capitalization: This 31% is not evenly distributed. It may still include a few other mainstream public chains like BNB and SOL, as well as established projects like XRP and ADA, which likely share a significant portion of this space. The actual room left for the remaining projects is, in fact, quite limited.

Desert of Liquidity: Excluding projects with sustained trading depth, a real user base, and actual business revenue, the vast majority of tokens are in a "zombie state"—with almost no trading volume, they merely exist nominally.

2. Market Maturation: Fundamental Shift in Sources of Alpha

In the early stages of the crypto market, information asymmetry was a key characteristic. At that time, finding undervalued assets was relatively easy, and true Alpha (excess returns) came from early discovery and steadfast holding.

However, the market in 2025 presents a completely different landscape:

Institutional Funds Dominate the Market: Wall Street entered the market as retail investors exited. The emergence of traditional financial products like Bitcoin ETFs and Ethereum ETFs has led to large funds taking a dominant position.

Regulatory Framework Gradually Perfected: The U.S. "GENIUS Act" has established a comprehensive regulatory framework for stablecoins, representing a deep integration of cryptocurrencies with the traditional financial services industry.

Developer Activity Continues to Grow: Despite a decline in public attention, development activity has been consistently increasing.

These changes mean that the probability of finding the next Bitcoin purely by luck is now lower than the chance of being struck by lightning (0.0003%).

3. Why Bitcoin Remains the Core Value Carrier

Extreme Simplicity: Bitcoin's core function is singular: to securely store and transfer value. It does not pursue flashy features; this "extreme simplicity" makes its codebase more stable, easier to audit, and harder to attack. "Reliability" is the highest form of trust, and Bitcoin has proven its reliability through over 15 years of uninterrupted operation.

Value of the Brand: "Bitcoin" has long become synonymous with the entire industry. Whether it's Wall Street moguls or ordinary people in remote areas, when they want to understand cryptocurrencies, the first name they hear is Bitcoin. This top-tier brand recognition cannot be bought with any amount of marketing expenditure.

Market Consensus: When traditional funds enter the crypto world through channels like ETFs, their first stop, and the largest one, is inevitably Bitcoin. It is the main channel for institutional funds to enter the market and the ultimate destination for all crypto liquidity.

4. Lessons for Us

When mainstream tracks have already been occupied by giants, ordinary people do not need to go head-to-head. It's like opening a milk tea shop in a bustling commercial area; the competition is too fierce. It’s better to think differently and find a good location nearby with a specific customer base.

Don’t always focus on grand narratives like "the next Ethereum" (at least not for now). Shift your attention from the vast number of tokens to a few valuable tracks and projects supported by solid fundamentals. The investment mindset should shift from "getting rich overnight" to "steady appreciation."

For the vast majority of new projects, the safest approach is to treat them as tools or toys first: if it’s a game, try playing it to see if it’s fun. If it’s an application, try using it for free to see if it runs smoothly.

5. New Growth: A Need for a Different "Mindset"

Ordinary people seeking Alpha should shift from a gold rush mentality to using a metal detector.

From "Taking a Gamble" to "Calculating Probabilities"

Old Mindset: "This project sounds amazing, All In! It’s sure to skyrocket!"

New Mindset: "This project has a 30% chance of increasing fivefold, but also a 50% chance of staying flat, and a 20% chance of going to zero. If I try it with a small amount, a loss won’t affect my life, but a gain could yield a nice return."

Key Point: Stop looking for "sure-win" projects (they don’t exist), and instead think about the "odds" of each move like playing chess. Use money you can afford to lose to chase a high-odds possibility.

Seek Opportunities with "Limited Loss, High Gain"

What this means: Look for opportunities where "the worst-case scenario is losing $1, but the best-case scenario could earn $10 or even $100."

A relatable example: This is like buying insurance. You pay a small amount each year (the premium), and if nothing happens, your loss is limited; but if a low-probability accident occurs, you can receive compensation far exceeding the premium. In investing, you want to find these moments where the "odds" are extremely favorable to you.

Key Point: Don’t bet all your money on those "either skyrocket or go to zero" gambles. Instead, use a portion of your funds to systematically seek and participate in those opportunities where "downside risk is limited, and upside potential is huge."

Take Concrete Actions

In this new era, the probability of ordinary people finding the next Bitcoin is indeed extremely low, but this is not the end of the story; it is the beginning of a new chapter. May we all find our own Alpha path on the fringes of this vast market.

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