Key Points:
On-chain data shows that short-term holders are actively accumulating despite market volatility.
The technical pattern is highly similar to DOGE's past bull market cycles, suggesting a potential breakout to $1.60 by the first quarter of 2026.
DOGE experienced a sharp decline on Friday, with the price plummeting from $0.25 to $0.08, a flash crash of 66%. Although it quickly rebounded to $0.20, this volatility led to over $365 million in long positions being liquidated, more than four times the previous annual high of $89 million in long liquidations. While the leveraged market underwent a significant reset, spot traders may be taking this opportunity to position themselves.
On-chain data indicates that despite the liquidation event, DOGE's long-term fundamentals remain resilient. Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson noted that DOGE has not yet entered the "euphoria" phase, and short-term holders are steadily accumulating. This analyst stated that DOGE reached the cycle top exactly at the CVDD Alpha indicator in December 2024, a tool based on Cumulative Value Days Destroyed, used to accurately identify cycle highs and lows.
While the top in 2024 is relatively moderate in terms of on-chain participation, Wedson emphasized that the model has accurately captured every DOGE market top since 2016.
The latest Hodl Waves data shows a significant increase in the share of DOGE supply held by investors with holding periods of less than six months, a strong signal of speculative funds re-entering the market. Historically, this often indicates a price increase, as new funds entering the market can effectively boost DOGE's realized market cap. Supporting this view, the MVRV Z-Score indicator remains well below the euphoric levels seen in 2021, indicating that the market is still in the early expansion phase.
Meanwhile, CryptoQuant data shows that retail investor positioning remains neutral, with no signs of speculative frenzy. The current balanced state of retail participation, neither overheated nor lukewarm, typically reflects a market environment where accumulation outweighs speculation.
This phase often occurs before broader retail capital inflows, suggesting that DOGE's current upward momentum may still have considerable room for expansion before ultimately peaking.
Despite the cautious market sentiment following the flash crash, historical data shows that this uncertainty is one of its strongest bullish signals.
Cryptocurrency trading expert EtherNasyonal points out that every major rally in DOGE's history has followed a specific pattern: stabilizing above the 25-day moving average, breaking through long-term downtrend lines, and entering a backtest phase. He emphasized that the current market meets all these conditions and added that DOGE typically begins its major upward cycles when market confidence is low and fatigue is evident.
In line with this, market analyst Trader Tardigrade also stated that DOGE's current market structure is highly similar to the bull market cycle from 2014 to 2017, suggesting a potential breakout rally, with prices expected to reach the target of $1.60 by early 2026.
Related: Opinion: The Maturity of Cryptocurrency Requires Systematic Discipline, Not Speculation
This article does not contain any investment advice or recommendations. Any investment and trading activities involve risks, and readers should conduct their own research before making decisions.
Original article: “DOGE Holders Are Buying Dips: Is $1.60 by 2026 Realistic?”
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