Author: Sean Kiernan, CEO of Greengage

Translated by: Felix, PANews

Currently, more than 160 publicly traded companies have adopted Bitcoin as a core reserve strategy, holding nearly 1 million Bitcoins in total, which accounts for about 4% of the circulating supply. What began as a bold experiment by a single company has now evolved into a globally accepted strategy: raising funds, purchasing Bitcoin, and providing partial equity exposure to Bitcoin through public listing tools. The trading of these stocks is not based on profits or cash flow, but rather on their ability to deliver Bitcoin per share, and most companies have market capitalizations that exceed their net asset values, or in modern terms: market prices are more than double their "mNAV" (market value to net asset value ratio). The question is no longer whether the Bitcoin reserve model can be implemented, but rather how the upcoming risks and opportunities will unfold.

Phase One: From Narrative to Imitation

The inception of Bitcoin treasury companies is defined by narrative and imitation. Michael Saylor's strategy (originally MicroStrategy) demonstrates that raising equity at a price above net asset value, converting it into Bitcoin, and never selling can transform a software company into a $100 billion Bitcoin proxy.

From Metaplanet in Tokyo to Semler Scientific in the U.S. healthcare sector and Smarter Web Company in London, this model has been widely imitated. However, relying solely on storytelling and holding Bitcoin may make it difficult to sustain the premium multiples. To navigate this "adolescence," companies may need to prove the rationale for their net asset value multiples being above 1 in a more enduring manner.

The Next Leverage for Bitcoin Treasury Companies

Leverage One: Revenue Advantage

Just as Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) transformed from landlords to revenue machines, Bitcoin treasury companies must also demonstrate their ability to achieve incremental growth per Bitcoin share, rather than merely hoarding Bitcoin.

This could be achieved through loans collateralized by Bitcoin, Lightning Network infrastructure, or new financial products that may monetize holdings on the balance sheet. For example, locking Bitcoin in payment channels on the Lightning Network allows Bitcoin holders to earn fees by providing this liquidity, potentially generating revenue. However, all revenue strategies carry risks that need to be considered and managed, such as credit risk and counterparty risk. Without a revenue engine, dilution may eventually catch up, and mNAV could compress to 1.

Leverage Two: Risk-Weighted Leverage

In the last bear market, it was not the companies with the largest balance sheets that prevailed, but those that could withstand forced liquidations through capital structure design. Currently, some Bitcoin treasury companies are considering using Bitcoin as collateral to obtain dollar-denominated loans. These dollars can then be deployed at the company's discretion, such as earning revenue or purchasing more Bitcoin. However, this activity requires strict risk management and cash flow and scenario modeling. Leverage amplifies this reflexive flywheel effect but requires discipline: raising funds only at a premium, never operating on hard collateral, and maintaining sufficiently long durations to weather cycles.

Leverage Three: Complementary Business Models

The third leverage is to provide complementary business models, akin to "picks and shovels" in the Bitcoin economy. Some Bitcoin treasury companies have begun to venture into infrastructure: data centers, decentralized AI computing, Bitcoin-native software, or commercial services.

This dual model allows them to transition from mere net asset value arbitrage to platforms with operational cash flow. This not only makes them more than just Bitcoin substitutes but also positions them as equity stories with growth potential. This is reminiscent of companies from the internet era that eventually grew into today's infrastructure giants in the tech industry, often sitting on substantial cash reserves themselves: Apple, Amazon, Google, Facebook, etc.

Moving Towards Specialization and Institutionalization

The reflection phase of Bitcoin fund management models is nearing its end. As this process slows, companies are specializing their Bitcoin reserve strategies: designing resilient capital structures that may generate Bitcoin revenue without diluting per-share risk exposure, and developing business lines connected to the broader digital asset infrastructure.

Successful companies may prove that their stock prices are justified in being above net asset value in the long term, solidifying their shareholder base and becoming peers to real estate investment trusts, tech giants, or energy behemoths in the Bitcoin space. In contrast, stagnant companies may gradually become irrelevant, even trading like closed-end funds in the stock market, with no growth prospects.

Next Phase: Beyond Buying Bitcoin

The next phase for Bitcoin treasury companies is likely not about buying Bitcoin anymore (that script has been written), but rather about building financial structures that keep mNAV above 1 through successive cycles.

Those companies that crack this puzzle will not just be proxies for Bitcoin. They may become the equity layer of a new monetary system.

Related Reading: Good, Ordinary, Bad: Six Scenarios Analyzing the Final Outcomes of Crypto Treasury Companies

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