Today's Trading Dynamics: Binance ApeCoin Contract Swap Approaches, Token Unlocking Wave Hides Short-Selling Risks
October 27, 2025, the crypto market continues to rebound under the influence of institutional accumulation and macroeconomic positives, with a total market capitalization stabilizing at $3.78 trillion, BTC holding steady at $112,000, and ETH breaking through $4,200. However, the Binance ApeCoin (APE) contract swap and multiple project token unlocks are imminent, raising short-term selling pressure risks and prompting shorts to take action. The following analysis combines the latest developments to explore trading opportunities and potential risks.
Binance ApeCoin Contract Swap: Short-Term Selling Pressure Alert
Binance announced that it will suspend the deposit and withdrawal of old APE tokens at 11:00 on October 29, and open deposits for new APE tokens at 17:00 on October 31. The old APE will be swapped 1:1 for the new APE, with the old token renamed to APEOLD and withdrawals halted. This move aims to optimize the ApeCoin ecosystem, adapting to the BAYC metaverse and chain game upgrades, but the swap period may trigger market volatility.
On-chain data shows a high concentration of APE holdings, with 20 addresses controlling over 60% of the circulating supply. Before the swap, some large holders may sell old tokens to avoid uncertainty, and users on platform X have already warned of "short-term dumping risks." APE is currently priced at $0.85, up 2.17% in 24 hours, but down 8.43% over the past week, reflecting cautious market sentiment. Traders need to pay attention to unusual trading volumes during the swap window (October 29-31) and be wary of shorts taking the opportunity to press down prices.
Token Unlocking Wave Approaches: 10 Projects Release Over $26 Million, Selling Pressure Diversified
This week, 10 projects will unlock a total value of approximately $26.8 million, involving high-market-cap tokens such as Optimism (OP) and Wormhole (W), making the selling pressure risk non-negligible. Below is an analysis of key projects:
Unlocked Projects (October 27):
TICO: Unlocked $899,500 (22.06% of circulating supply), price slightly up 0.31% to $0.002, low FDV ($19.06 million) suggests limited selling pressure.
TEVA: Unlocked $277,400 (10.18%), price up 5.48% to $0.004, AI concept popularity may absorb selling pressure.
SVL: Unlocked $212,700 (0.10%), circulating market cap $219 million, minimal unlocking has little impact on price (+1.18%).
AITECH: Unlocked $374,300 (0.82%), high circulation rate (84.72%) and AI narrative support price increase of 1.95%.
Upcoming Unlocks (October 28-30):
SIGN (October 28): Unlocking $4.11 million (7.17%), FDV $426 million, recent price up 4.24% to $0.04, but large unlock may trigger short-term pullback.
GODS (October 28): Unlocking $375,500 (1.02%), circulating rate of the chain game project has reached 78.81%, low selling pressure risk, price slightly up 0.36%.
PEAR (October 29): Unlocking $227,400 (4.51%), low circulating market cap ($5.04 million) is susceptible to selling pressure, caution advised.
ARENA (October 29): Unlocking $2.46 million (20.29%), high proportion and FDV only $37.36 million, significant short risk, price up 6.58%, but may face pressure afterward.
OP (October 30): Unlocking $15.14 million (1.70%), circulating market cap $891 million, L2 leader has strong resistance, price up 6.68% to $0.47, may maintain strength in the short term.
W (October 30): Unlocking $3.09 million (0.84%), supported by cross-chain narrative, price up 5.90% to $0.08, limited impact from selling pressure.
| Project | Unlock Time | Unlock Value | Proportion | Price (24h) | Risk Assessment | |---------|-------------|--------------|------------|--------------|------------------| | SIGN | October 28 | $4.11M | 7.17% | ↑4.24% | Medium | | ARENA | October 29 | $2.46M | 20.29% | ↑6.58% | High | | OP | October 30 | $15.14M | 1.70% | ↑6.68% | Low | | W | October 30 | $3.09M | 0.84% | ↑5.90% | Low |
Market Linkage and Short Opportunities
In terms of stock linkage, crypto stocks strengthened alongside the market rebound, with MicroStrategy (MSTR) up 2.12%, benefiting from a net inflow of $250 million into BTC ETFs. However, the unlocking wave may disrupt short-term balance, with small and mid-cap tokens (ARENA, PEAR) facing particularly high selling pressure risks, and shorts may take the opportunity to build positions. On-chain data shows that leveraged liquidations in October have reached $19.37 billion, with small and mid-cap tokens experiencing declines of 60-80%, reflecting active shorting.
On a macro level, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the meeting on October 29, which may pressure the dollar index, benefiting assets like BTC/ETH, but unlocking selling pressure could drag down Altcoin performance. Sentiment analysis on platform X shows high topic heat for #APE and #OP, but discussions related to "selling" are increasing, indicating lurking short sentiment.
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| Project | Price | 24h | Circulating Market Cap | FDV | Circulating Supply | Unlocked Ratio | Next Unlock Value | Unlock Time (2025-10-27 11:13) | |---------|-------|------|-----------------------|-----|-------------------|----------------|-------------------|----------------------------------| | 1 | TICO | $0.00 | ↑0.31% | $4.07M | $19.06M | 2B | 21.39% | $899.45K 22.06% | Unlocked (00d 00h 48m 01s ago) | | 2 | TEVA | $0.00 | ↑5.48% | $2.72M | $16.23M | 671M | 16.79% | $277.37K 10.18% | Unlocked (00d 02h 48m 01s ago) | | 3 | SVL | $0.04 | ↑1.18% | $218.69M | $442.48M | 4B | 49.40% | $212.73K 0.10% | Unlocked (00d 12h 48m 01s ago) | | 4 | AITECH | $0.03 | ↑1.95% | $45.79M | $53.71M | 1B | 84.72% | $374.31K 0.82% | Unlocked (00d 23h 48m 01s ago) | | 5 | SIGN | $0.04 | ↑4.24% | $57.46M | $426.13M | 1B | 13.50% | $4.11M 7.17% | 2025-10-28 06:48:01 (upcoming) | | 6 | GODS | $0.09 | ↑0.36% | $36.65M | $46.61M | 394M | 78.81% | $375.50K 1.02% | 2025-10-28 12:48:01 (upcoming) | | 7 | PEAR | $0.02 | ↑3.89% | $5.04M | $16.71M | 257M | 25.72% | $227.36K 4.51% | 2025-10-29 12:48:01 (upcoming) | | 8 | ARENA | $0.00 | ↑6.58% | $12.16M | $37.36M | 3B | 32.57% | $2.46M 20.29% | 2025-10-29 12:48:01 (upcoming) | | 9 | OP | $0.47 | ↑6.68% | $891.31M | $2.01B | 1B | 44.16% | $15.14M 1.70% | 2025-10-30 12:48:01 (upcoming) | | 10 | W | $0.08 | ↑5.90% | $371.15M | $768.44M | 4B | 48.29% | $3.09M 0.84% | 2025-10-30 12:48:01 (upcoming) |
Trading Strategy Recommendations
ApeCoin Swap: Pay attention to trading volume from October 29-31; if large holders sell old APE, consider short positions with a target support of $0.80.
Unlock Projects:
High Risk (ARENA, SIGN): High unlocking proportions, recommend waiting or shorting, set stop-loss at the day's high.
Low Risk (OP, W): Consider building long positions on dips, target $0.50 for OP and $0.09 for W.
Macro Catalysts: If the Federal Reserve's rate cut materializes, BTC may surge to $118,000, driving blue-chip tokens to rebound, with a focus on OP and ETH.
Conclusion
The Binance ApeCoin swap and the token unlocking wave inject variables into the market, presenting both short opportunities and bullish potential. Traders should closely monitor on-chain data and sentiment on platform X, flexibly operating in conjunction with key support and resistance levels. The crypto market is ever-changing, and rational positioning is essential to navigate volatility successfully.
(Data Source: Binance Announcement, TokenUnlocks, CoinMarketCap, Platform X; Not investment advice, DYOR)
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