Key Points:
The bearish MACD crossover and engulfing candle pattern appearing on the three-week chart for BTC suggest that the cycle peak is approaching.
Market analysts point out that the 558 days following the 2024 halving indicate that the peak of the BTC bull market is imminent.
Other analysts believe that there is still room for BTC prices to rise, with a target of $180,000 still within reach.
BTC prices fell 3% on Thursday, down 13% from the historical high of $126,000 set on October 6, with some traders believing this level may have marked the peak of BTC's current cycle.
A cryptocurrency analyst stated that Bitcoin's price action seems to have confirmed the "bearish MACD crossover," which, according to historical patterns, may signal the end of the BTC bull market.
Analyst Jesse Olson noted in a post on X on Wednesday that a "bearish MACD crossover" is imminent on Bitcoin's three-week chart, adding:
As shown in the figure below, this crossover is confirmed when the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator (blue line)—a technical indicator used by traders to identify trend changes and momentum shifts—moves below the signal line (orange line).
It is worth noting that the MACD last issued such a bearish signal at the peaks of the 2017 and 2021 bull market cycles, marking the price tops for BTC.
The same three-week chart also shows a "bearish engulfing candlestick pattern," similar to the formations observed at the peaks of the 2017 and 2021 bull market cycles.
Jesse Olson stated in another post on Thursday that these, along with "several other warning signals, indicate that a top has formed."
These warnings also include a decline in network activity, pointing to reduced on-chain demand. Data from Nansen shows that the number of daily active addresses on the BTC network dropped by 30% in October, from 632,915 to 447,225.
A decrease in daily active addresses indicates reduced network participation and weakened user demand, which typically signals the onset of price corrections or prolonged consolidation periods.
A pseudonymous trader and investor, Mister Crypto, supports the cycle peak theory based on the four-year halving cycle of BTC, noting that BTC has reached a "historic peak region."
Looking back at the historical halving cycles of BTC in 2012 and 2016, similar trends indeed exist. Prices gradually accumulate momentum, typically peaking between 518 to 580 days after the halving event, as shown in the figure below.
With 558 days having passed since the 2024 BTC halving, this places the BTC market within a +40 day range of the historical 518-580 day peak window.
Mister Crypto stated in a post on X: "We are at a point in history where BTC peaks," and then he asked:
Peer analyst CryptoBird believes that BTC may have only a few days left for price expansion in this cycle, especially if it follows the historical patterns based on past halvings.
In his latest BTC analysis, CryptoBird noted that BTC is "consolidating before an explosion, and the top window is open."
Final leg waiting room. BTC is rangebound at $112K, ETFs rising, fear fading. It's consolidating before explosion and the top window is open. You're not ready for what's coming. (Thread) 🧵 pic.twitter.com/g35tkf9tG2
According to Cointelegraph, some analysts, such as BitMEX's Arthur Hayes, believe that the four-year cycle of BTC has ended, arguing that current prices are primarily driven by monetary policy and liquidity rather than halving events.
Other experts believe that the impact of halving is diminishing, pointing out that the positive interest rate cycle, institutional adoption through ETFs and BTC treasury companies, and the maturity of BTC as a mainstream asset may provide more upside potential for BTC in 2026.
In addition to those who believe that the four-year cycle of BTC no longer determines the duration of the bull market, other analysts believe that BTC still has upward potential based on technical indicators.
Analyst Jelle stated that BTC has "formed higher lows, and the price range remains intact," referring to the price action in the BTC daily timeframe.
Another analyst, Mags, pointed out that BTC is trading within a "bullish megaphone pattern," which has historically led to upward breakouts.
Bitcoin - Every bullish pattern on BTC has led to an upside breakout in the past. Right now price is forming a bullish megaphone pattern. A massive breakout is loading. pic.twitter.com/45z3WvRwKa
As Cointelegraph reported, the BTC Mayer Multiple indicates that it is closer to an "oversold" state at current levels, suggesting that the target of $180,000 is still achievable.
Related: Michael Saylor predicts Bitcoin (BTC) could soar to $150,000 by the end of 2025
This article does not constitute any investment advice or recommendation. All investment and trading activities carry risks, and readers should conduct their own research before making decisions.
Original article: “Bitcoin (BTC) bears give three reasons why the bull market just ended”
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