Event Review 🔍

In just a few minutes, ETH experienced a sharp fluctuation. Starting at 22:40, the market faced a reconstruction of liquidity and forced liquidations of high-leverage positions, causing the ETH price to briefly hit a low of about $3476. Subsequently, driven by a short squeeze effect and institutional algorithmic orders, ETH quickly rebounded to $3553 within 12 minutes, an increase of 2.21%, and further climbed to $3586 in the following time. The latest data shows that as of 23:22, the ETH price adjusted to $3575.77, stabilizing after the intense fluctuations. This process demonstrated the market's astonishing response to changes in liquidity and the impact of high-leverage operations.

Timeline ⏰

• 22:40: Market liquidity reconstruction begins, with several institutions forced to liquidate high-leverage positions under tightening liquidity, causing ETH to hit a low of about $3476.
• 22:40～22:52: Under the combined effect of short liquidations and technical buy orders, the ETH price quickly rebounded to $3553, up 2.21%.
• 22:40～23:20: Driven by sustained buying, ETH further climbed from about $3555 to $3586, an increase of 0.89%, showing a technical rebound effect.
• 23:22: After digesting the previous fluctuations, ETH temporarily stabilized around $3575.77.

Reason Analysis 🚀

Multiple factors are intertwined behind this surge in ETH:

• Macroeconomic Policy Push: Recently, the Federal Reserve and related institutions have introduced a series of measures including interest rate cuts, ending quantitative tightening, and lowering the discount rate, along with the U.S. government and Treasury reallocating market liquidity, resulting in an overall adjustment in the funding environment.
• Liquidity Tightening and High-Leverage Positions: Some institutions and retail investors operated with high leverage, causing market liquidity to suddenly tighten in a short period, leading to forced liquidations of high-leverage positions. This chain reaction created a short squeeze, driving prices to rebound quickly.
• Technical Operations Intervention: In the low price area, some traders and institutions used algorithms and customized technical indicators to automatically intervene, taking advantage of the brief panic in the market to establish reverse positions, resulting in a rapid price increase.

Technical Analysis 📈

Based on the 45-minute candlestick data of Binance USDT perpetual contracts, this ETH fluctuation exhibits the following technical characteristics:

• Indicator Signals

• RSI successfully broke through the 50 midline, indicating enhanced short-term upward momentum;

• The MACD histogram has been continuously increasing, suggesting that buying power is accelerating;

• The KDJ indicator shows divergence, with the red three soldiers candlestick pattern frequently appearing, indicating a clear overall bullish signal.

• Volume-Price Relationship

• Trading volume surged by 173.53%, far exceeding the recent 10-day average volume, reflecting unusually active market trading;

• The OBV indicator broke through previous highs, indicating a significant increase in buying funds;

• Although short-term trading activity is high, the 10-day average volume decreased by 17.98%, suggesting that some trading activity may decline in the short term, while the 20-day moving average rose by 19.33%, indicating that the mid-term trend remains robust.

• Moving Average System

• The current price is supported near the MA20, with strong short-term bullish sentiment;

• However, the price is below the EMA120 moving average, indicating that the overall ultra-long-term trend remains bearish;

• Additionally, the price is above the EMA24 but below the EMA52, suggesting that the rebound may be in a brief technical correction phase within a downtrend.

• Other Data

• In the past hour, the total liquidation across the network reached about $9 million, with short positions accounting for 69%, indicating a risk of position turnover amid intense market fluctuations;

• Net inflow of main funds reached $80 million, indicating that institutions are taking advantage of technical buying opportunities to accumulate positions.

Market Outlook 🔮

In the short term, ETH is currently in a technical rebound phase following a short squeeze, with active market buying. If the macro liquidity environment warms up or institutions continue to capture low buying signals, prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating upward trend near support levels. However, from a medium to long-term perspective, prices remain below the EMA120, and some technical indicators (such as the J value being extremely overbought and some moving averages showing a downward trend) indicate that the risk of a pullback cannot be ignored.

Therefore, while investors focus on short-term trading opportunities, they must strictly control positions and risks, closely monitor macro policies and liquidity changes. If signs of fiscal policy easing and liquidity return appear in the future, it may trigger further upward movement; conversely, if the leverage liquidation effect continues or institutions take profits, prices may enter a consolidation adjustment phase. Overall, this rebound provides a technical layout opportunity for short-term traders, but the long-term trend should be approached with caution, suggesting a phased entry and exit strategy with proper risk management.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。