Key Points:
The decline in BTC reflects the weakness of the Nasdaq, but lacks fundamental reasons.
The inflow of spot BTC ETFs has cooled but remains in positive net inflow, indicating robust investor demand.
The liquidity of stablecoins and on-chain accumulation suggest conditions for a rebound.
BTC fell to $100,800 on Tuesday, down over 10% this week, echoing the 1.67% drop in Nasdaq 100 futures, putting pressure on risk assets. According to EcoinBitcoin-Nasdaq data, historically, when the Nasdaq drops more than 1.5% in a single day, BTC has a 75% chance of negative returns, with an average loss of -2.4%.
Despite being dragged down by macroeconomic factors, analysts believe the weakness in BTC prices is not entirely supported by fundamental factors. The financial environment remains loose, and the stock market recently hit all-time highs.
Ecoinometrics emphasizes: "Relative to the macro backdrop, BTC is undervalued," noting that the current pullback seems to be driven more by sentiment than structural factors.
However, since the beginning of October, the inflow of spot BTC ETFs has noticeably slowed. The first two weeks of the fourth quarter saw over $5 billion in net inflows, while the past four weeks experienced about $1.5 billion in cumulative outflows. Although this shift indicates a cooling of demand, the overall net inflow balance remains positive, suggesting that long-term investors still have a robust demand for BTC exposure.
Globally, this slowdown is also reflected in cryptocurrency exchange-traded products (ETPs). Last week, all cryptocurrency ETPs saw a net outflow of $246.6 million, primarily driven by $752 million in Bitcoin outflows. Notably, the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) saw outflows of $403 million, while Grayscale's GBTC experienced outflows of $68 million.
On-chain indicators add nuance to this situation. Selling pressure has decreased from $835 million to $469 million (week-on-week), while long-term accumulation remains strong. Bitcoin whales transferred about 4,900 BTC to exchanges, indicating cautious position adjustments rather than panic.
Reserves held on exchanges have dropped to 2.85 million BTC, and even with BTC trading below its 200-day moving average ($108,000) and the short-term holder cost basis of $113,000, this still reinforces a broader accumulation trend.
CryptoQuant data shows that the stablecoin supply ratio (SSR) has fallen back to the 13-14 range, the same area it occupied before Bitcoin's rebound earlier this year. Historically, this level typically marks a liquidity turning point, where an increase in stablecoin balances indicates that off-exchange "buying power" is accumulating.
Currently, with BTC trading at $101,800, the lower SSR indicator suggests that stablecoin liquidity is quietly rebuilding, which may lay the groundwork for a market rebound or the final wave of a bull market in this cycle.
However, experts point out that the intensity of each SSR rebound is gradually weakening, indicating that while the market may still experience an upward phase, the momentum of the underlying market liquidity may have begun to wane.
Related: Bitcoin (BTC) price target reaches $92,000, new buyers enter "surrender" mode
This article does not constitute any investment advice or recommendation. All investment and trading activities carry risks, and readers should conduct their own research before making decisions.
Original article: “Bitcoin Falls Below $102K: Analysts Say BTC is 'Undervalued' Based on Fundamentals”
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
