Content Organization: Peter_Techub News
On November 5, at the Hong Kong Fintech Summit and the product launch of New Fire Technology co-hosted by Techub News and Avenir Group, Roundtable Forum II "Rejecting Black Swans: The Future Form of Digital Asset Institutional Liquidity and Exchanges" was in full swing. Host Alma (founder of Techub News) led four heavyweight guests—Eugene Cheung, Chief Business Officer of OSL Group; Lan Jianzhong, COO of Avenir Group; Xing Yue, COO of New Fire Technology; and Adrian Wang, CEO of Metalpha—in a heated debate. The discussion coincided with increased volatility in the crypto market: the black swan event on October 11 triggered a $20 billion liquidation, with Bitcoin briefly falling below the $100,000 mark. The guests approached the topic from the perspective of institutional liquidity pain points, analyzing the fragile links and envisioning the evolution path of exchanges. This article focuses on the three core topics raised by Alma, systematically organizing the guests' viewpoints to provide industry insights for investors.
Topic 1: What are the vulnerabilities of black swan events? The trust gap in institutional liquidity
Alma, founder of Techub News, first raised the pain point: What vulnerabilities have recent black swan events exposed in the digital asset field? Is it counterparty risk, lack of transparency in custody, or insufficient liquidity? This question directly touches on Taleb's concept of "antifragility," resonating with the guests.
Eugene Cheung analyzed from the perspective of traditional finance transformation, emphasizing that liquidity loss and opaque risk control are core issues. "In the event, the prices of three tokens plummeted to zero and then rebounded, stemming from the market makers' withdrawal mechanism for self-protection. From the Chicago Mercantile Exchange to Bybit, I have witnessed the chaos of 1000x leverage competition. The risk control standards of exchanges vary widely, lacking the Nasdaq circuit breaker mechanism, leading to a collapse of investor confidence." He advocated for balancing innovation and regulation, introducing transparent rules to strengthen resilience.
Lan Jianzhong, COO of Avenir Group, categorized the event as a "liquidity crisis triggered by risk control accidents," recalling the terrifying alarms that rang out that morning. "The trigger point lies in the concentrated risk of the 'one fish eats many' strategy: investors chasing yield from tokens and multiple returns while neglecting that margin can easily be manipulated by the secondary market. The pricing loophole of large locked positions burst the bubble, and the delta-neutral strategy collapsed, triggering a chain of ADL liquidations." He pointed out three major ailments: market fragmentation (small exchanges and DeFi disperse liquidity, unable to concentrate like CME); a distorted ecosystem (over-reliance on leading market makers, leading to exhaustion when they halt); and room for improvement in pricing strategies. "Subsequent rectifications are commendable, but global liquidity sharing is needed."
Xing Yue, COO of New Fire Technology, downplayed the "black swan" label of the event: "Compared to March 12 or May 19, although this liquidation is the highest in history, it accounts for a tiny proportion of the industry's market value." He distinguished between market-driven black swans (extreme market conditions leading to leveraged liquidations, which can be quickly repaired, with a steep learning curve for investors) and compliance-driven black swans (trust mismatches). Taking multi-billion dollar asset management institutions as an example: "At Bybit, we only dare to put in a few million dollars due to the black box of custody and clearing rules. Unlicensed exchanges self-custody without audits, relying on the owner's credibility for trust. Although POR has made progress, the industry needs full-chain compliance: from underlying custody to code audits." Xing Yue is optimistic: the compliant ecosystem has not experienced major blowups, and such events are a necessary phase.
Adrian Wang, CEO of Metalpha, shared insights on the liquidity impact following the October 11 digital asset event. He mentioned that the industry experienced liquidity tightening due to this event (the stablecoin market size is about $280 billion, and this liquidation of $20 billion is significant), but he clearly stated that the liquidation was not the main cause of liquidity tightening.
He pointed out that the U.S. government shutdown and abnormal interbank SOFA rates had a greater impact on liquidity, and that the government shutdown would not last, with liquidity expected to return subsequently. In the long term, the U.S. is betting its policies and development focus on AI and blockchain, with institutions like Wall Street and the New York Stock Exchange actively launching blockchain-related products. The long-term development trend of the industry is positive, and a short-term pullback of 10%-20% is a normal fluctuation that does not require excessive concern, similar to how Tesla's stock price fluctuates but does not affect its long-term development.
Topic 2: How to assess the health of exchanges? Indicators beyond trading volume
Alma, founder of Techub News, shifted to the evaluation framework: Besides trading volume, what indicators measure the health of exchanges and avoid black swans? The focus fell on Eugene Cheung from the first batch of compliant exchanges in Hong Kong, OSL, and Lan Jianzhong, CEO of Avenir Crypto.
Eugene Cheung viewed licensing as a bottom line: "Regulatory standards ensure that nothing goes wrong, but health goes beyond that. Asset audits are superior to POR—ensuring that money has not been stolen is a prerequisite; risk control transparency can handle abnormal markets." He called for industry associations to promote best practices: ADL design, risk control sharing, with large exchanges leading the way. "OSL's listed company financials are transparent, with 98% of assets in cold wallets, ensuring profitability and safety." While licenses are not a panacea, scale effects require liquidity aggregation.
Lan Jianzhong, COO of Avenir Group, returned to the "21-character mantra" of Huobi (safety, compliance, stability, quality assets, liquidity, user experience, transaction fees), adding three dimensions: capital utilization (connecting contracts, spot, wealth management, and U.S. stock margin to enhance order-holding capacity, testing quantitative mathematical risk control); the health of the liquidity ecosystem (diversified providers co-creating to avoid the "one fish eats the entire pool" distorted cycle, API design needs ecological balance); and asset transparency (user assets and payable reconciliations, no inflation; real money in the order book, not fake orders, to avoid withdrawal runs). "Veterans can easily identify fake orders, and compliant exchanges must be responsible to users." He reminisced about the era of Li Lin, hinting at Avenir's future exchange plans.
Topic 3: What will be the future form of exchanges? Comprehensive financial platforms or on-chain innovations
What form will trading platforms take? Comprehensive financial platforms? The focus shifted to asset managers Xing Yue and Adrian Wang, later expanding to Lan Jianzhong and Eugene Cheung, touching on market predictions.
Xing Yue, combining experiences from participating in exchanges like Badbit, Hellokitty, and Huobi, analyzed the future forms of trading platforms. He proposed three stages of exchange evolution: the early stage as a liquidity inflection point (liquidity is the moat, as BN is favored for its small token liquidity); then entering a trading service competition phase (competing on system stability, combined margin, etc., with current functions saturated); currently in a compliance investment service phase, where the core competition is the licensed investment service capability.
Future trading platforms will become comprehensive financial platforms, with core directions including OSL-style compliant cross-currency instant swaps, Lan Jianzhong's related stock-coin integration and cross-category margin, and customized services for high-net-worth individuals like Spark, as well as future compliant trading of RWA assets. Overall, this relies on compliant licenses and needs to focus on enhancing financial efficiency and adapting to institutional and high-net-worth demands.
Adrian Wang shared his views on the future form of trading platforms: he first believed that "professionals should do professional things," as traditional market exchanges are categorized by investment type (for example, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and LME have not merged, and different categories of commodities belong to different exchanges) due to the complexity and specificity of each category, making current category integration difficult and slow.
As someone from a technical background, he is more optimistic about Dax exchanges (like Hyper Liquid) after discussions with Lan: the underlying technology of digital assets is blockchain, and Dax can leverage its advantages to achieve trustlessness, with transaction records, assets, market making, and ADL methods all recorded in code, allowing for traceability and easier regulatory scrutiny, addressing existing market pain points.
Additionally, he mentioned the combination of AI and decentralized exchanges: current API evolution allows AI to call decentralized exchanges for trading, making it easier to implement on a technical level.
Lan Jianzhong foresaw an "all-in-one" approach: integrating on-chain and off-chain, traditional crypto, and fiat to create a liquidity hub. "Fragmentation will disappear, with several hubs providing access for CEX/DeFi/brokerages, saving costs. The SFC's welcome for foreign liquidity connections is a huge benefit, enhancing global standing—but regulatory and technical challenges need to be overcome." On market trends, he firmly believes in long-termism: "Avenir built positions from $10,000 to $20,000, not selling a single Bitcoin, viewing it as production material. The market size is small, with high institutional adoption (401K entry), and a 10-20x increase is expected."
Eugene Cheung agreed on the overlap of traditional and digital, with institutional entry (Trump, ETF) driving aggregation. "Not just exchanges, but the integration of lending and payment across all scenarios, with blockchain replacing infrastructure." Scale effects are key, with liquidity sharing like the New York Stock Exchange model allowing compliant exchanges to aggregate orders. "OSL has a presence in multiple locations and welcomes integration with HashKey." In the short term, regarding market trends: "Bitcoin is like gold, with a 10x gap, and the potential for national reserves is significant; mainstream chains (Layer 1/2) show real growth. Q4 may see fluctuations, but opportunities are left for believers."
Host Summary
The roundtable serves as a barometer for the industry: from deconstructing pain points to envisioning blueprints, the guests' sharing consistently revolved around the three key words of "compliance, self-discipline, and technological integration." As the host of this roundtable, Alma, founder of Techub News, further distilled the core at the conclusion: "Surrounding the October 11 $20 billion liquidation event, the four guests provided clear guidance for the digital asset industry from pain point dissection to future outlook. The forum reached a consensus on analyzing the black swan event—relying on regulation to establish bottom lines, the industry to fill gaps, and strong trust across the entire chain; the health assessment of exchanges broke the 'volume-only theory,' with licenses, asset audits, and capital utilization becoming key metrics; while the future forms may be diverse, they all point to 'technology as the foundation, compliance as the framework.' This dialogue not only clarified the current risk points in the industry but also outlined the core direction for breaking through."
Techub News will continue to extend the deep insights from this forum, tracking the industry dynamics of compliance and technological integration, documenting every step of the digital asset field in resisting black swans and moving towards sustainable growth, providing valuable decision-making references for investors and practitioners, and jointly promoting the robust development of the crypto ecosystem.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
