Original Author: Tykoo, Investment Guidance from Paramita Capital
Regarding entrepreneurship in prediction markets, for a new asset class, it is now the stage where VCs are seeking products with money.
Paradigm wants to invest in moonshots specifically for prediction markets, like Axiom or Bonkbot, which is a similar opportunity for the meme era like GMGN.
Boost VC wants to invest in a fund for Poly Market or launch one themselves.
Yzi Lab was previously focused on the BNB trading market itself (essentially differentiating GTM).
Earlier, I went on @Sea_Bitcoin's show and chatted with @LeotheHorseman, where some ideas were mentioned, and I’d like to share them here:
In prediction markets, doing something like DeFi gameplay by stacking Legos, taking my tickets out to collateralize and borrow USDC to continue pushing up market probabilities, similar to a circular loan strategy. With just a few taps, small amounts of capital can elevate the probability of a market, essentially doing news promotion.
Allowing users to bet privately, similar to what everyone is currently exploring with anonymous orders on Aster, protecting the privacy of insiders in prediction markets.
Providing incentives for market creators, for example, if I propose "Hu Chenfeng opens Twitter/join the crypto circle before June next year," then they create a market for me and give me 1% of the trading fees.
Similar to creating social gameplay or providing SDKs for various trading platforms, essentially having a foundation to launch products, doing TOBTOC to let clients generate traffic and frontend.
Following the above logic to redo various social platforms, for example, creating a live streaming platform, which logically is more coherent than pump.
Leo also mentioned using prediction markets for governance, which I find particularly interesting, selecting leaders and management teams / using real money for DAO governance.
In fact, entrepreneurship in prediction markets can be divided into two types: one is to create the market itself, and the other is to sell shovels. The former mainly relies on differentiation, while the latter has stronger certainty:
The differentiation of creating the market itself mainly lies in three levels:
The first is the infrastructure layer, where you will see various curves trying to enter the market without permission, using AI for oracle settlements, etc.
The second is the GTM for regional markets, such as Europe, America, Russia, etc., where each region naturally has its own focus.
The third is innovation in product-level gameplay, such as up-and-down markets, left-right bets, hardware wallets targeting a market, and various similar gambling mini-games, all of which fall under those ideas.
The ideas for selling shovels are generally more grounded and have a stronger certainty of making money:
Bots that follow large traders, growing from Telegram, gradually becoming data tool products.
Arbitrage robots in different markets, doing something like NOF1, allowing agents to express opinions, relying on public funds/memes for GTM.
Selling information to financial market products, generating positive externalities from the information in prediction markets.
Additionally, creating various "dog-fighting" (prediction market) monitoring tools, specifically targeting different niches like football, can completely meet user demand for data.
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