Author: Biteye Core Contributor Viee

The full text is approximately 4800 words, estimated reading time is 12 minutes.

Once upon a time, the rules of the primary market were relatively clear: VCs provided funding, KOLs made their voices heard, and retail investors provided liquidity.

But today, this set of rules seems to be breaking down.

VC endorsements are no longer omnipotent; project teams are starting to redesign the game rules around "influence." KOLs are no longer just simple traffic roles. They hold the chips, sit at the table, and can even determine the life and death of a project.

To some extent, the KOL round is a token distribution method that emerged after VCs exited and retail investors fell silent, under the narrative of "influence above all." In the past 7 days, XHunt statistics show that there have been as many as 3860 tweets mentioning "KOL" in the crypto circle, while "VC" had 3078 mentions, marking the quiet beginning of a shadow war over influence.

This article does not discuss grand theories but tells the real story behind the KOL round—where it came from, who is laughing, who is crying, who is counting money behind the scenes, and who is losing sleep at night.

How did the KOL round step into the spotlight?

Let's rewind to the end of 2022.

The winter of crypto VCs has arrived. Primary market valuations are inflated, exit cycles are prolonged, and the secondary market cannot absorb the supply. Large institutions are hesitant to act, and small projects struggle to raise funds.

On the other hand, retail investors have quietly returned. Blast, ZKsync, Friend.tech… every liquidity explosion signals the return of retail investors.

The easiest way to influence these people is not through institutional research reports but through KOLs who seem to "know the industry" and are actually "selling products."

Project teams have also realized: VCs may not be able to help me break out, but KOLs can. Instead of spending money on advertising, it’s better to hand low-priced chips to KOLs, let them tweet, and create momentum.

Thus, a new play emerged:

• Project teams give KOLs a quota, sometimes at prices even lower than VCs;
• KOLs hype up the project before the TGE, creating FOMO;
• At the moment of unlocking, traffic explodes, and KOLs cash out and leave.

The KOL round has arrived. You can think of it as a "private placement with tasks." Low prices, quick unlocks, and even "minimum guarantee clauses."

Project teams calculate clearly: give tokens to those with fans and influence, and after the launch, they will naturally bring people to drive up the price.

KOLs also feel it’s a win: acquiring tokens at a low price, bringing some traffic, and selling a portion upon unlocking sounds like a guaranteed profit.

But is reality really like this?

The truth about the KOL round: Some get rich, some go to zero

2.1 The profit and loss of the KOL round

The performance of profit and loss in the KOL round varies greatly depending on the project and market environment.

In a bull market, the KOL round is often seen as a "triple win": projects get funding, KOLs position themselves at low prices, and retail investors can profit by following along. But in a bear market, the script changes completely.

As liquidity decreases, price drops upon launch become the norm. KOLs, unable to sell in time due to lock-up, can suffer heavy losses. KOL @realChainDoctor admitted that he invested in more than ten KOL rounds last year, none of which were profitable, and some didn’t even release the tokens. In the view of @kiki520_eth, KOL rounds have certain systemic traps, where tokens may not be received, or rules may even change after a price increase.

Top KOL @jason_chen998 stated that his most profitable investments were Aster and Mira, where he obtained lower valuations when the market was quiet and the project teams were reliable, coinciding with a bull market during the TGE. Therefore, the key to making money in KOL rounds is to ambush in a bear market and rely on connections to secure projects. However, he also admitted that most KOL rounds are just high-yield financial products; with good luck, there might be some returns, but with bad luck, one ends up working for free, pressured by project teams for content, having tokens withheld, and not unlocking them, ultimately leading to an unhappy ending.

We reviewed some recent KOL round cases, and some projects indeed brought high returns, such as:

Aster: When the token price broke $1.79, the KOL round had a maximum floating profit of over 70 times. If only considering the 30% that was unlocked at launch, it resulted in a profit of 21 times, equivalent to a $50,000 investment yielding $1.05 million.

Holoworld AI: Lookonchain monitored the on-chain address 0x3723, suspected to be a KOL investor, who received about 10.24 million HOLO in September at a cost of only $0.088. Subsequently, they gradually cashed out at an average price of around $0.6, totaling over $4.71 million in cash-out, with a single round return rate of over 444%, netting more than $4 million.

WalletConnect: After unlocking, ICO and KOL round investors only received about 1.5 times their investment.

However, there have also been many KOL round projects that experienced price crashes after launch or where the project teams encountered issues.

A typical case is SatoshiVM at the beginning of 2024, where the project token $SAVM was preheated with a large number of KOLs, briefly soaring above $11, but soon after, news of KOLs cashing out at high prices emerged, leading to a trust crisis, and the project gradually cooled down. Those KOLs and retail investors who did not sell are likely to struggle to profit, and currently, $SAVM has dropped to about $0.075.

Another example is ZKasino, where KOLs participated in financing and promotion, but the project team unilaterally changed the rules after users completed the lock-up, absconding with the assets. In this incident, KOLs who participated in financing and promotion were condemned by fans as accomplices, suffering not only financial losses but also immense public pressure.

A few months ago, Eclipse launched its token with a KOL round valuation of $600 million and a Series A valuation of $1 billion, but after launch, the actual circulating market value was only about $380 million, far below the rumored $600 million valuation. Research KOL @_FORAB stated that some KOL round quotas were also distributed to media and community members, and in the end, it didn’t even get listed on Binance contracts.

In response, well-known KOL @yuyue_chris pointed out in a tweet that the real problem with KOL rounds is not losing money, but that project teams and intermediaries use KOL rounds under the guise of promotion to pull people in, forcing KOLs to use their fans to redeem their principal. This kind of irresponsible play of exploiting acquaintances is the most problematic.

2.2 Behind the profits: The triangular game of projects, KOLs, and retail investors

As mentioned earlier, the KOL round reflects the changing power structure of the entire primary market.

In the past, project teams relied on VCs for funding, and VCs filtered projects based on their influence. Now, project teams have discovered that KOLs are cheaper, faster, and more capable of generating hype.

VCs are unhappy: after investing millions of dollars, the project teams allow a bunch of low-priced tweeters to come in, whose influence may even surpass their own… so some VCs choose to "exit."

Retail investors are even more displeased: they buy tokens that KOLs have unlocked in the secondary market, only to see KOLs shouting about the project on launch day, while in reality, they are offloading their tokens.

Project teams are not necessarily happy either: because KOLs' hype is often short-lived, the volume, liquidity, and high opening on launch day do not represent the project's long-term trajectory.

Thus, a tense triangular relationship forms on the KOL round stage.

• KOLs are calculating: how can they safely exit with their investment and reputation?
• Project teams are wondering: can the quotas given translate into the expected volume and price increase?
• Retail investors are asking: is this follow-up an opportunity or a trap?

The interests of these three parties are like forces pulling in different directions, each tugging at the others. Unless the project itself is strong enough to magnetically attract all three forces, any party's excessive force could cause this triangle to collapse completely.

The "intermediary" you cannot ignore—Agency

In KOL rounds, project teams often do not connect directly with KOLs but instead distribute and manage through third-party Agency institutions.

They are the "resource allocators" in this game. They help project teams design KOL round terms (prices, quotas, unlocks); select and invite suitable KOLs; supervise progress, and ensure content delivery. Some reliable Agencies also design mechanisms such as guaranteed returns, promotional rewards, or principal refunds to help KOLs reduce risks.

They are the "intermediaries" in the entire KOL round system, controlling traffic and managing resources. So if you are a newly started KOL looking to participate in a KOL round, the first thing to do is not to find a project but to find the right Agency.

You may have heard of the names of these Agencies:

• LFG Labs (@dubailfg): Founded by @snow949494 (XHunt Chinese ranking 134), focusing on China, Japan, South Korea, and the Middle East, primarily connecting with top projects, skilled in integrating KOL resources, content dissemination, and KOL round financing linkage.
• JE Labs (@JELabs2024): Founded by @0xEvieYang (XHunt Chinese ranking 244), established in 2024, mainly builds brands and communities for early-stage high-potential projects, connecting with Chinese audiences, helping projects grow from 0 to N.
• BlockFocus (@BlockFocus11): Founded by "Er Gou" @CryptoErgou (XHunt Chinese ranking 469), one of the earliest in the Chinese region to engage in Agency business, BlockFocus emphasizes project value accumulation and medium to long-term operations.
• Shard (@ShardDXB): Founded by @ciaobelindazhou (XHunt Chinese ranking 784), a marketing agency incubated by a crypto investment fund, focusing on providing strategic narratives and global growth services for Web3 infrastructure projects, covering key markets in multiple languages including Chinese, English, Korean, Japanese, and Russian.
• XDO: Led by seasoned primary investor @mscryptojiayi (XHunt Chinese ranking 213) with years of market experience, prefers to work on "few but refined" projects, handling everything from mechanism design, strategic consulting, market narrative shaping to execution.
• Mango Labs (@MangoLabs): Founded by @dovwo (XHunt Chinese ranking 112), focusing on marketing and KOL placement in Chinese regions, providing a complete service from narrative creation to community operation for projects.
• Cipher Dance (@Cipher_Dance): Founded by @Jeffmindfulness (XHunt Chinese ranking 2178), focusing on content marketing in the Pre-TGE stage, skilled in amplifying project narratives through creative forms and multilingual KOL placements.
• 4XLabs: "Strategic consulting + KOL matrix," helping global projects achieve growth from 0 to 1 in the Chinese market. Team members include @jasonchen998 (XHunt Chinese ranking 34); @Bitwux (XHunt Chinese ranking 24); @PhyrexNi (XHunt Chinese ranking 8); @KuiGas (XHunt Chinese ranking 31).

How to get the attention of project teams/Agencies?

Typically, project teams or Agencies allocate quotas based on KOL influence metrics (such as follower count, past tweet popularity, etc.) and clarify content production and unlocking requirements.

To gain KOL round opportunities, the core is to enhance "content + data" and establish a trustworthy personal brand:

• Continuously produce professional content: Consistently publish market analysis, on-chain data insights, or project evaluations.
• Actively engage on Twitter: Interact with project teams and other KOLs, participate in AMAs, live streams, and tweet discussions to increase activity within the industry.
• Use tools to optimize data: Utilize analytical tools to enhance account visibility, such as using @xhunt_ai to check your account's influence ranking, capability model, attention metrics, etc., to precisely adjust content output. XHunt has also launched scoring systems like the "Soul Index," which has become an important reference for many project teams and Agencies in evaluating KOLs.
• Establish connections through multiple channels: In addition to online promotion, attending offline industry events or hackathons can help meet project teams.

How do KOLs filter projects?

KOL rounds are not charity; every participant faces pressure to recoup their investments. Choosing the wrong project not only leads to losses but also damages reputation and affects ordinary users' interests. Therefore, it is best to conduct systematic filtering before collaboration, similar to investing in private placements, focusing on the following key dimensions:

• Valuation and FDV: Is the overall valuation of the project reasonable, and is the KOL round price relatively discounted?
• Unlock design: Is the TGE unlocking ratio and linear cycle healthy, and is there a risk of concentrated selling pressure?
• Capital background: Check if there are leading VC investments and whether the institutional lineup has endorsement effects.
• Participation lineup: Which top KOLs have already participated, and is there a signal of joint participation from institutions and individuals?
• Agency source: Understand whether the Agency responsible for matchmaking is professional, what their past performance is like, and whether they have participated in quality projects.
• Team reputation: Does the founding team have past project experience or industry reputation, and is there any history of controversy?
• Terms and requirements: Does the promotional content need to be reviewed in advance, and are there any special arrangements such as minimum guarantees or refund clauses?

Additionally, tools like XHunt can be used to analyze the reliability of projects, using plugins to view financing information, team information, follower counts of Chinese and English KOLs, community sentiment, and project influence rankings.

Conclusion: The KOL round is a narrow door left for ordinary people in the primary market

From a higher-dimensional perspective, the KOL round is a financing tool that has naturally evolved in the crypto industry under the backdrop of traffic prioritization, narrative dominance, and community-driven dynamics.

It lowers the capital threshold, accelerates dissemination, and indeed helps some small projects stand out without VC support.

Of course, KOL rounds sometimes also face issues of lack of standards and ambiguous responsibilities. But from another angle, this may also be one of the few opportunities for retail investors to "squeeze into the primary market." Compared to traditional private placements dominated by elite VCs with high information barriers, KOL rounds at least possess a certain degree of liquidity and openness. Any ordinary person, as long as they can continuously produce content and have influence, has the potential to secure a quota and truly participate in the primary pricing game.

This is not a perfect mechanism, but it is a "grassroots method" in the current crypto-native capital market. In a stage where rules are not yet formed and trust mechanisms are still being built, the KOL round, as a new market solution, still holds significance.

Because in this era, influence itself is the new capital.

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